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Eagles vs. Colts prediction: Grab the points with Indianapolis

Look for the home underdog Colts to copy the blueprint Washington used to hand Philly its first loss

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (left) follows the block of center Jason Kelce during Monday night's game against the Washington Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia heads to Indianapolis on Sunday as a big road favorite. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (left) follows the block of center Jason Kelce during Monday night's game against the Washington Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia heads to Indianapolis on Sunday as a big road favorite. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)Read moreMitchell Leff / Getty Images

The Philadelphia Eagles find themselves in unfamiliar territory heading into Sunday’s game at the Indianapolis Colts: For the first time this season, they’re coming off a loss, a stunning 32-21 home defeat to Washington that ended Philadelphia’s run at perfection.

On the flip side, Indianapolis went to Las Vegas last week and hit the jackpot, halting a three-game skid with a 25-20 upset of the Raiders in new coach Jeff Saturday’s debut.

Those results aside, the Eagles (8-4) still have delivered twice as many victories this season as the Colts (4-5-1). Hence the reason Philadelphia is a near touchdown road favorite Sunday — even though coach Nick Sirianni’s troops failed to cover big numbers each of the past two weeks.

Which side is the right side in this cross-conference clash between a Super Bowl contender and a squad currently on the outside of the playoff picture? Here’s our Eagles vs. Colts prediction.

Note: Odds updated as of 11:45 a.m. ET on Nov. 18.

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Eagles vs. Colts Prediction

  1. Colts +7, -114 (at FanDuel)

Eagles vs. Colts Prediction: Analysis

You may recall that we sided with the Commanders as an 11-point underdog against Philadelphia on Monday night. You also may recall we went 4-for-4 with our Commanders-Eagles props.

One of those props included a brief snippet about the Eagles’ shaky run defense. Allow us to go into greater detail, because it’s a big reason why we’re snagging the points with Indy in this contest.

A week after getting bulldozed for 168 rushing yards by the Houston Texans, Philadelphia’s front seven got trucked for 152 by Washington. And in three games prior to facing those squads, the Eagles yielded rushing totals of 124 (Arizona), 134 (Dallas) and 144 (Pittsburgh).

We’ll do the math for you: That’s an average of 144.4 rushing yards in the last five games.

» READ MORE: How to bet the Eagles, Penn State and Temple games this weekend

Frankly, we’re surprised Philly’s unbeaten run lasted as long as it did. Because matador-like defenses against the run usually lead to consistent defeat.

Credit the Eagles’ front office for addressing the issue with Thursday’s signing of veteran run-stuffer Ndamukong Suh. That came a day after the team signed Linval Joseph, another veteran defensive tackle.

But Suh and Joseph are 35 and 34, respectively. And neither has played a down this season. So even if they both see playing time Sunday, how effective are they really going to be?

So what? The Colts can’t run the football this year.

True — to a point. Indy enters Week 11 with the NFL’s fifth-worst rushing offense. However, the Colts busted loose for a season-high 204 rushing yards a week ago in Vegas.

So what? The Raiders stink at stopping the run.

Indeed. And Las Vegas’ rushing defense (21st) ranks exactly one spot below Philadelphia’s (20th).

So we expect finally-healthy Indy running back Jonathan Taylor — who has piled up 203 yards on 38 carries the last two weeks — to get the rock early and often Sunday. And we expect Taylor to do what the Commanders did last week: churn out yards, move the chains and keep the ball out of the Eagles’ hands.

» READ MORE: Bengals vs. Steelers prediction: Bet on Pittsburgh as a home underdog

A few additional reasons we like the Colts to at least cover as a home underdog:

  1. Philadelphia is traveling on a short week and playing just its third road game since Sept. 24. The Eagles failed to cover in the last two.

  2. The Eagles, who had enjoyed a run of good luck in the health department this season, have multiple key players in the infirmary this week. This includes wide receivers Davonta Smith and A.J. Brown (questionable); starting center Jason Kelce (questionable); defensive tackle Fletcher Cox (questionable); and top tight end Dallas Goedert (out).

  3. Larger favorites — that is, teams laying 6.5 points or more — have been doing just fine this season on the scoreboard (29-16-1 SU). Against the number? Different story, as underdogs of at least 6.5 points are 29-17 ATS (a 63% cover rate).

Lastly, the Colts looked like a rejuvenated bunch last week in Sin City. Yes, it was just one game, and, yes, that game was against the lowly Raiders. But we saw more of a spark from Indianapolis in 60 minutes than we have all season.

All that said, the X-factor in this matchup, of course, likely will be quarterback Matt Ryan. The Colts’ veteran signal-caller was efficient against Las Vegas (21-for-28, 222 yards) and smart (no turnovers).

Ryan will need to be both again Sunday for Indy to hang in this one. Because Philadelphia defends the pass (177.7 yards per game, 2nd) much better than it does the run. And the defense’s 13 interceptions are tied for the league lead.

We understand: Putting money on Ryan in recent seasons usually induces heartburn (if not a full-blown heart attack). Still, we think this number is too high and that the situation sets up great for the home team.

So take the touchdown FanDuel is offering and look for the Colts to either keep it close throughout or close enough to allow for a late-game backdoor cover.

Eagles vs. Colts Odds (via FanDuel)

  1. Point spread: Eagles (-7, -106) @ Colts (+7, -114)

  2. Moneyline: Eagles (-300) @ Colts (+245)

  3. Total: 45.5 points

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