Commanders vs. Eagles predictions: Our four best prop bets for MNF

As we noted in our Week 10 NFL betting trends report, the 2022-23 season has been a boon for Under bettors — particularly when the lights turn on.

With this week’s Thursday night and Sunday night games falling short of the total, the Under is now 19-10-1 in prime-time contests. That includes 6-3-1 on Monday Night Football.

Will defenses dominate again when the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles collide Monday at Lincoln Financial Field? That’s certainly the direction we’re leaning with our Commanders vs. Eagles props predictions. Here are our top four Monday Night Football prop plays.

Note: Odds updated as of 12:15 p.m. ET on Nov. 14.

Washington has gone with a running back by committee approach all season. And in the last five weeks, that committee has primarily featured Robinson and Antonio Gibson.

The duo have split the backfield workload since Robinson — who was shot twice in the leg during a robbery attempt in August — was activated prior to Week 5. However, Robinson has out-carried Gibson in all five games he’s played.

The rookie from Alabama outperformed this prop number in three of the last four, rushing for 60, 73 and 44 yards against the Bears, Packers and Vikings, respectively.

Whoever gets the ball Monday night will be facing an Eagles defense that was gashed for 168 yards by the Texans last Thursday. It was the second-highest rushing total Philly has yielded this season and the fourth straight game in which it allowed at least 124 yards on the ground.

Again, the Commanders’ only path to victory tonight is to control the clock and protect the football. Well, Gibson hasn’t exactly been a force in four career games against the Eagles, averaging 43.8 rushing yards (including 38 on 12 carries in Week 3).

So we expect Robinson to get most of Monday’s opportunities. If that happens, he shouldn’t have much trouble cracking 34 yards against a leaky Eagles run defense.

» READ MORE: Will Miles Sanders top 110 yards? One bettor had a choice to make.

Our Commanders vs. Eagles betting preview highlighted how well Washington’s defense has been playing lately. So we won’t rehash too much of that here.

Just know this: Other than the Detroit Lions (36-27 home win in Week 2), no team has scored more than 25 points against Washington this season. That includes Philadelphia (24-8 road win in Week 3).

Also, the Commanders arrive in Philly having held five consecutive foes to 21 points or fewer.

The counterargument, of course, is that the Eagles have scored at least 24 points in all but one game (20-17 win at Arizona). And they’ve hit 24 points in all four home contests, including 35 against Pittsburgh and 29 against Jacksonville.

Fair enough. We still believe Washington’s defense will be up to the task Monday. We also believe the Commanders will do everything possible to play keep-away with the pigskin.

Because the only way Ron Rivera’s team can pull off the upset is to shorten the game with a lot of handoffs (against a Philadelphia defense that ranks 20th in the league against the run) augmented by short, safe passes.

Look for the Eagles to continue their season-long streak of reaching 20 points in every game. But also look for them to continue another streak: Philadelphia hasn’t topped 27 points against Washington in any of the past five meetings.

This prop number actually looks low when you check Hurts’ game log for this season.

The Eagles’ quarterback and MVP candidate shredded Washington for 340 passing yards in Week 3. He’s also topped 242 passing yards in five of his eight games and nearly did so a sixth time at Arizona (239 yards).

Still, we’re siding with the Under on Monday night. And once again, the main reason is Washington’s improved defense.

Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins threw for 265 yards against the Commanders last week, but a good chunk of that was when the Vikings were in fourth-quarter comeback mode (trailing by 10 points). In the five previous games, no quarterback had thrown for more than 223 yards against Washington.

Admittedly, four of those five QBs were named Cooper Rush, Ryan Tannehill, Justin Fields and Sam Ehlinger (the other was Aaron Rodgers). Still, none got anywhere near 240 passing yards — in fact, Rush (223) was the only one who had more than 201 yards.

As for Hurts, yes, he blew up the Commanders’ secondary the first time around. It was part of a season-opening three-game stretch in which he averaged 305.3 passing yards per outing.

In five game since, though, Hurts is averaging 225.2 passing yards, with highs of 285 (vs. Pittsburgh), 243 (at Houston) and 239 (at Arizona). So he’s really only blown past 242.5 passing yards once since facing the Commanders six weeks ago.

Expect the Washington secondary to continue its strong play and keep Hurts somewhere around his recent 225 passing yards average. Play this prop Under at FanDuel.

Heinicke hasn’t thrown more than 33 passes in any of his three starts this season. In fact, his passing attempts dipped in each contest: 33 in Week 7 against Green Bay, 31 in Week 8 at Indianapolis, 28 in Week 9 against Minnesota.

So why did oddsmakers put this prop at 33.5? Because they believe Washington will be trailing — and possibly trailing big — which will force Heinicke to air it out, especially in the second half.

That’s how things played out in Week 3, when now-injured Commanders quarterback Cason Wentz chucked the ball up 43 times. It’s also how things played out in Heinicke’s only previous start against the Eagles.

In Week 17 last season, Philadelphia rallied from a 16-7 halftime deficit, took a 17-16 early-fourth quarter lead, and Heinicke finished with 36 pass attempts in an eventual 20-16 home loss.

However, that’s the only time in his last eight starts that Heinicke has tallied more than 33 pass attempts. And in 21 career NFL starts, Heinicke has topped 33 pass attempts just seven times.

Finally, the Eagles’ pass defense ranks second in the NFL (177.6 yards per game) and second in interceptions (12). That — plus Philly’s shaky run defense — explains why the Eagles have seen the fifth-fewest pass attempts among teams that have played only nine games.

Unless the Commanders dig themselves a big early hole again like they did in Week 3 — which we don’t envision happening — Heinicke should stay well below this prop number.

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