Tour Championship odds, predictions: Two longshot bets we’re backing

With only 30 players in the field this week at East Lake Golf Club, the definition of a longshot bet changes slightly.

Gone are the 100/1 longshots that we are betting on to win the tournament outright, unless you’re willing to back someone charging from the bottom of the leaderboard. Rather, most bettors should gravitate to the “lowest 72 hole score” market, which takes the staggered scoring out of play and has odds ranging from +600 (Rory McIlroy) to +10000 (Sepp Straka, Tom Hoge).

I’ll focus on that market for my top longshots this week, which will feature comparatively shorter odds than other weeks. Without further delay, let’s dive into those selections. Odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Corey Conners doesn’t own the best overall course history at East Lake, but there are positive signs that could lead him to having a good week.

Despite sitting 17th in SG: Total amongst the 20 players who own previous East Lake experience, Conners is fourth in SG: Ball Striking and first in SG: Off the Tee. Additionally, he’s seventh in Par 4 Efficiency in his eight rounds at East Lake.

In terms of his output in my statistical model, Conners rates very highly. Just over his last eight rounds, Conners ranks second overall in the field behind only Joaquin Niemann. Over that span, he’s third in the field in SG: T2G, fifth on approach and first in GIRs gained. Furthermore, the Canadian ranks fifth overall in Par 4 Efficiency and sits first overall in good drives gained.

Although he’s slightly below average in birdies gained (19th) and only slightly above average in bogey avoidance (14th), there are enough factors to justify backing Conners in this alternate market. For me, I’ll back him at anything better than +3000.

I’ve already outlined my love for Adam Scott in my top derivative plays, but I’ll double down on him for the low 72-hole score.

Simply put, Scott absolutely loves this course. Over his last 12 rounds at East Lake, the Aussie ranks seventh in Par 4 Efficiency, first in birdies or better gained and third in bogey avoidance. Additionally, he’s fourth in SG: Total and leads the field in both SG: T2G and SG: Ball Striking.

In terms of his modeling output, there’s a lot to like about Scott. Just in the last two playoff events, he ranks fourth overall in the field. Although he’s 15th tee-to-green and 23rd on approach in that span, Scott simultaneously sits second in birdies or better gained, fourth in bogey avoidance and third in Par 4 Efficiency.

Assuming Scott is able to rectify his ball striking metrics at a course where he’s produced solid outputs previously, I expect his other measures to keep up and give him a chance at the lowest 72-hole score this week. Like Conners, back Scott at anything better than +3000 for this market.

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