Bet on a high scoring series finale between the Phillies and Rangers on Thursday

The Phillies have MLB’s best rotation.

It’s among the best rotations we’ve seen in years. Philadelphia’s starters boast a league-low 2.59 ERA, 3.21 FIP, and 3.24 expected FIP. They also have MLB’s highest strikeout rate (25%).

Philadelphia starting pitchers have amassed 7.2 fWAR through 49 starts, a full 1.4 wins more than the second-best rotation (Kansas City).

Zack Wheeler, who starts on Thursday against the Rangers, has been a significant part of that success. Wheeler has accounted for 1.9 fWAR through his 10 starts, the fourth-most among National League pitchers.

However, Wheeler has struggled with Texas in the past, and the Rangers pitching staff doesn’t inspire much confidence.

As such, I’m banking on a higher-scoring affair in our Rangers vs Phillies Odds, Predictions, Picks for Thursday, May 23.

(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

(1:05 p.m. ET, BSSW)

I don’t have to recap why Wheeler is so dominant.

He ranks third among qualified starters in Pitching+ behind excellent command and control of his six-pitch arsenal. He’s pumping in 96 mph fastballs while baffling hitters with an 18-inch glove-side-breaking slider.

He can force whiffs (29% strikeout rate) and weak contact (45% ground-ball rate, 34% barrel rate) galore. He has an answer for every hitter, allowing him to work deep into games like no other – Wheeler has worked at least six innings in six of his 10 starts this year.

But he hasn’t dominated the Rangers like other teams. In two starts over the past two seasons, Wheeler’s allowed six earned runs across 8 ⅔ innings (6.50 ERA).

Another three runs came unearned because the Phillies’ defense is far from elite. The team ranks 26th among MLB units in Defensive Runs Saved this year (-30), the one crack in Philadelphia’s run prevention unit’s armor.

Citizens Bank Park can play like a hitter’s park under the right weather conditions. We expect hot and humid conditions (84 degrees) with winds blowing out toward right field during the first pitch on Thursday, meaning balls should carry. BallParkPal’s weather model projects a +11% run factor for the game, including a 20% home run factor.

The Rangers haven’t been an exceptional offense lately, but they’re continuously among the most patient, contact-based lineups. They rank among the top 10 MLB teams in strikeout rate (20%), walk rate (10%), swinging-strike rate (10%), chase rate (26%) and zone-contact rate (85%).

Additionally, Adolis Garcia is back in the lineup, which should boost the lineup’s power upside.

So, the boosted Rangers will battle a pitcher they’ve had success against and a lousy defense in an elevated run environment. I can see them scraping together some runs.

» READ MORE: Back the Stars to take Western Conference Finals series against Oilers

Meanwhile, the Phillies should smash Andrew Heaney, the Rangers starter for Thursday.

Heaney is a slightly above-average pitcher, with earned run indicators in the low-to-mid fours (4.43 ERA, 4.00 xERA, 4.15 FIP, 4.20 xFIP). He has below-average stuff (81 Stuff+ mark across his arsenal), mainly because he’s lost two ticks of velocity on his heavily-used four-seam fastball over the past few seasons (now sitting 91 mph).

But Heaney is a fly-ball pitcher (career ground-ball rate under 38%) with a historical home-run problem (career 15% HR/FB rate and 1.58 HR/9), which could bite him in an elevated homer environment.

The Phillies smash southpaws, boasting a pull rate over 45% and a hard-hit rate over 40% against the side, both top-10 marks. Throw in their disciplined approach (11% walk rate), and they rank ninth among MLB lineups in wRC+ against the side (115).

Even better, the Phillies boast the fourth-highest expected wOBA against left-handed four-seam fastballs this year (.363). The Phillies also boast the fourth-highest wOBA (.431) against fastballs under 92 mph.

This is a tough matchup for the soft-tossing Heaney.

And the Phillies should mash across all nine innings, considering the Rangers bullpen is in disarray. Texas has posted a league-high 7.68 reliever ERA across the past two weeks, boosted by an obscene 14% walk rate.

It’s hard to trust a unit led by David Robertson, Jose Urena, Jacob Latz, Jose Leclerc and Kirby Yates. Texas ranks 22nd in reliever fWAR (0.4) this year.

The Phillies should win this game, but they’re too juiced in the markets.

Instead, I expect a high-scoring affair between the weather, pitching matchups and high-upside offenses.

BallParkPal projects a whopping 9.5 runs in this matchup, a full run higher than the market price at the time of writing.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.