World Series 2022 odds update: Buy or sell struggling Yankees?
The Action Network’s Michael Arinze examines whether we should still be bullish on the Yankees’ World Series chances
On June 18th, the New York Yankees defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 4-0 to improve to 49-16 on the year.
The victory also gave New York a .754 winning percentage, which put the Yanks ahead of the pace of the 1998 team that went 61-20 (.753) at the All-Star break and went on to win the World Series.
But since the Yankees picked up their 49th win, they’re just 26-32. And since the All-Star break, the Yankees have the sixth-worst record (11-20) in baseball.
Yet, despite their recent struggles, the Yankees’ World Series odds haven’t changed much. They’re still available at +450. And while it’s probably tricky to downgrade a team with the second-most wins (75) in the American League, I think there are better betting options on the board.
Same old Yankees?
You have to go back to 2009 for the Yankees’ last World Series win—their only title in the past 21 years.
However, it was the fourth World Series title for Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, which could explain why he’s been at the helm of the Yankees’ front office for over two decades.
But one can’t help to wonder if it’s finally time for a new voice in the Bronx.
We’ve probably all heard the famous Albert Einstein phrase, “Insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results.” That phrase is almost apropos for the Yankees because they’ve been building their roster using the same principles for many years now.
It’s all about the long ball in the Bronx, and the Yankees’ offense tends to stagnate when it can’t hit the ball out of the park.
That’s been the theme for years with the Yankees organization, and what’s even more concerning is that the Yankees have been far too reluctant to part with prospects at the trade deadline to help improve the team.
What would George do?
The Yankees held on to players like Gio Urshela and Gary Sánchez too long before finally trading them after they lost some of their luster.
This season, the Yankees refused to trade prospects like Anthony Volpe, Oswald Peraza, and Everson Pereira.
Moreover, to think that the Yankees were nothing more than spectators in the Juan Soto sweepstakes would be almost unthinkable during the reign of legendary owner George Steinbrenner.
I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that the Yankees don’t appear to have the same pressure to win as when Steinbrenner was around. How else can you explain Cashman holding on to his job for so long?
Yankees manager Aaron Boone also wouldn’t have been able to stay in his job this long without delivering a championship.
Swing and miss at the trade deadline
It’s not often you find yourself discussing a possible reboot for a team that’s 26 games over .500. However, the warning signs are there as this recent Yankees’ slump can only metastasize during the postseason.
New York’s moves at the trade deadline were more about quantity than any real quality.
The Yankees opted to add Frankie Montas to their rotation instead of Luis Castillo. In his three starts with the Yankees, Montas has a 9.00 ERA after allowing 14 runs in 14 innings. The Yankees are 1-2 in his starts. As for Castillo, he has a 3.16 ERA after allowing nine runs in 25.2 innings. Seattle is 3-1 in his starts.
The move that was probably the most perplexing for Yankees fans was trading a left-hander in Jordan Montgomery for an outfielder in Harrison Bader.
All Montgomery has done is win each of his four starts with the Cardinals while posting a 0.35 ERA. In comparison, Bader hasn’t stepped on the field in almost two months as he remains on the IL with plantar fasciitis.
Starting pitching, contact a concern
Baseball today is enamored with advanced analytics such as ISO, xSLG, and exit velocity, but there’s still something to be said about putting the ball in play and getting on base. For example, the Dodgers not only have the most wins (84) in baseball, but they also lead the league in OBP (.336), and are second in batting average (.261).
The Yankees have flaws that seem to have gone unaddressed for years.
I’ve already highlighted that the Yankees are too overly reliant on the home run ball. And if we turn to their pitching rotation, I still have a few questions concerning their ace, Gerritt Cole. For one, are the Yankees getting their money’s worth with Cole after handing him the highest contract (nine years worth $324 million) of any pitcher in baseball?
Do the Yankees have a clear No. 2 pitcher behind Cole? Nestor Cortes has been great this season, but he’s never pitched in the playoffs.
Buy or sell?
Starting pitching is critical in the postseason, and given the decisions the Yankees made at the trade deadline, I think there’s a chance for them to be exposed.
As a result, I can only look to sell their chances of even making it out of the ALCS.
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.