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MLB Preview: Marlins vs. Phillies odds, picks, prediction

The Action Network’s Michael Arinze breaks down the Marlins-Phillies series finale from a betting perspective

Edward Cabrera #27 of the Miami Marlins throws a pitch during the first inning of a game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on August 05, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images)
Edward Cabrera #27 of the Miami Marlins throws a pitch during the first inning of a game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on August 05, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images)Read more© Nuccio DiNuzzo Photography / Getty Images

The Phillies scored three runs in the eighth inning against Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara to defeat Miami 4-3 on Wednesday night.

It was the seventh consecutive victory for the Phillies, who can now finish off the Marlins with a three-game sweep.

Kyle Gibson will take the ball for Philadelphia, while Miami will counter with Edward Cabrera.

According to FanGraphs, Cabrera is the fifth-ranked prospect in the Marlins organization. The 24-year-old Dominican native made seven starts last season but began this year in the minors.

Cabrera has yet to face the Phillies, but he’s been impressive in three of his four starts this season.

I’ll run through the numbers to see if there’s anything we can glean from those outings in preparation for this series finale.

Marlins vs. Phillies MLB odds

Odds provided by FanDuel.

Moneyline: MIA (+144) vs. PHI (-172)

Spread: MIA +1.5 (-150) vs. PHI -1.5 (+125)

Total: Over 8 (-114) | Under 8 (-106)

» READ MORE: Who has the edge in the NL MVP race?

Marlins vs. Phillies probable pitchers

Edward Cabrera (2-1, 2.61 ERA) vs. Kyle Gibson (7-4, 4.36 ERA)

A quick look at Cabrera’s Statcast makes it clear why the Marlins are so high on him. The young right-hander has an arsenal that includes five pitches, and four of them are thrown at least 15% of the time.

Despite having a four-seam fastball (25%) that can get up to 98 mph, Cabrera opts to use his changeup (36.5%) as his dominant pitch. But when your changeup averages around 93.3 mph, there’s no question it can still be devastating to opposing hitters.

Cabrera’s other pitches include a curveball (16.2%), a slider (15.9%), and a sinker (6.3%).

In his third start this season, Cabrera faced a formidable Astros lineup and allowed five runs on seven hits in 3 2/3 innings.

Aside from that outing, he’s been virtually flawless, allowing just one run in a combined 17 innings of work.

While this Phillies offense might rank slightly below that of the Astros, it’s still considered above-average with a wRC+ value of 104. This game should be a good barometer for Cabrera as the Phillies would join the Astros as the only above-average lineup he’s faced this season.

Although Gibson has been consistent, he’s had a few spotty starts mixed in. Right now, he’s in a groove after putting together back-to-back quality starts, allowing three runs in 14 innings of work.

Gibson can be a bit prone to the home run ball. His 1.17 HR/9 ratio has primarily contributed to his plus-four ERA. We know this to be true thanks to his career-best 2.49 BB/9 ratio and .263 BABIP.

Miami’s current lineup does have success against Gibson, as evidenced by a .275 AVG and .354 wOBA in 76 plate appearances. The real question is whether we’re willing to step in front of this Phillies train that’s been an absolute juggernaut over the last week.

If we approach this game from a modeling perspective, my projections make the Phillies a -153 favorite and the Marlins a +139 underdog.

Yet, despite the slight value I’m getting with the Marlins at +144, I’m not sure I can trust the Marlins for a full nine innings because of their porous bullpen.

That’s a big reason why I played the Marlins on the first five moneyline Wednesday as opposed to the full game. I plan to use this game as a learning opportunity to get more acquainted with Cabrera.

While the Marlins won’t make my official card, I would give them a lean on the first five-run line at -110 odds.

Marlins vs. Phillies Pick

Lean Marlins F5 RL +0.5 (-110)

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