A unique trend supports betting struggling Marlins Wednesday night vs. Phillies

Our lean to the under got there yesterday as the Philadelphia Phillies avoided extra innings with a Jean Segura walk-off single to win, 3-2.

Part of the reason I preferred a play on the total, as opposed to a side, is that the Phillies were overvalued as a favorite, and the Miami Marlins were unplayable given their seven-game losing streak.

However, in my quest to find some value for Wednesday’s game, I’ve stumbled on an exciting trend that bodes favorably for the Marlins.

Moneyline: MIA (+150) vs. PHI(-185)

Spread: MIA +1.5 (-140) vs. PHI -1.5 (+115)

Total: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)

Trevor Rogers (4-10, 5.57 ERA) vs. Bailey Falter (3-3, 4.08 ERA)

Two left-handers will be on the mound Wednesday as the Marlins will start Trevor Rogers while the Phillies will counter with Bailey Falter. On the surface, Rogers’ resume looks far worse given his 4-10 mark and 5.57 ERA.

However, his 4.41 FIP makes him a candidate for positive regression. Falter, meanwhile, has a 5.24 FIP which is more than one run higher than his traditional ERA.

The biggest issue for Falter is that he’s susceptible to the long ball. According to FanGraphs, he’s allowing 2.04 home runs per nine innings and is a flyball pitcher in a hitter-friendly park. More than 48% of Falter’s batted balls are hit into the outfield, which helps explain his 0.64 GB/FB ratio.

What’s interesting is that, according to Baseball Savant, Falter throws a sinker 40.5% of the time, and he’s struggling to keep the ball on the ground and inside the park. He’s allowed more home runs (5) on his sinker than any other pitch in his arsenal.

It’s hard to fathom some of Falter’s struggles given that he has an above-average Caught Plus Swinging Strike Rate of 30.7%. He’s also getting ahead of hitters with a 66.9% First-Pitch Strike Rate. I suspect that hitters are being incredibly patient inside the box against him and that they’re letting him get ahead to track his pitches. After all, he’s not going to overpower them with his 91-92 mph fastball. In his two years in the majors, opposing hitters have an average launch angle of 17.9 degrees.

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This handicap has more to do with Falter and the spot that the Marlins are in, as opposed to any deep analysis we can do on Rogers.

However, here are the head-to-head numbers: In 96 plate appearances, the current Phillies roster is hitting .253 against Rogers with a .258 CBA. And although the Marlins roster has only 11 plate appearances against Falter, they’re hitting .364 with a .377 xBA and a .834 SLG.

Yesterday, I wrote about September being a tricky month in baseball, with some teams just playing out the string on a losing season. And while the Marlins certainly fit in that category, you’d have to think that losing eight straight games at some point becomes a bit demoralizing.

I think the Marlins will at least try to be competitive early on Wednesday, and the numbers support that theory.

According to our Action Labs database, teams on an eight-game losing streak are 73-57 on the first five runline for 12.53 units. Moreover, the Marlins are 4-1 in this spot, and the Phillies are on an 0-3 run against the runline heading into this game.

You can grab the Marlins at +0.5 / -115 over at BetMGM.

Marlins F5 RL +0.5 / -115

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