MLB preview: Royals vs. White Sox odds, prediction and picks

We cashed our second play on Monday by taking the under in the New York Yankees-Los Angeles Angels game. For Tuesday, I plan to explore an AL Central matchup that looks mispriced according to my projections.

The Kansas City Royals head to the South Side for a three-game series with the Chicago White Sox. Brady Singer will start for Kansas City, while Chicago will counter with Lucas Giolito.

The White Sox are in freefall, losers of four straight games and winning one game over the past seven.

Let’s dig into the numbers to see if there’s anything positive we can expect from this White Sox team moving forward.

Moneyline: KC (+110) vs. CHW (-130)

Spread: KC +1.5 (-190) vs. CHW -1.5 (+155)

Total: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)

Brady Singer (7-4, 3.15 ERA) vs. Lucas Giolito (10-7, 5.14 ERA)

For the past three seasons, the White Sox have had one of the most talented teams in baseball, but putting it together on the diamond has been a different story.

After the 2020 season, White Sox GM Rick Hahn fired manager Rick Renteria after he led Chicago to its first playoffs in 12 years. Hahn replaced Renteria with Tony LaRussa, who previously managed the White Sox from 1980 to 1986.

In LaRussa’s first stint with Chicago, he guided them to a 99-win season and an ALCS appearance. Right now, the Hall of Famer would simply settle for a wild card berth.

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Chicago is currently 6.5 games out of a playoff spot, and after getting out to a 10-6 start in August, it’s been downhill ever since, with just two wins in their past 11 games.

If there’s one word to describe the White Sox, it’s lifeless. Whether it’s failing to make routine plays in the field or LaRussa making one head-scratching decision after another.

And with a less successful pitcher on the mound Tuesday, Chicago remains a favorite at -130. Giolito has allowed 13 runs over his past four starts compared to Singer, who’s allowed just four during that span.

Singer also has the edge in terms of advanced metrics, as his 3.55 FIP is more than a half-run lower than that of Giolito’s (4.09).

The Royals right-hander has done a tremendous job in decreasing his walks per nine innings from 3.72 last year to 2.23 this season. In contrast, we’ve seen Giolito struggle with his command, as his 3.38 BB/9 ratio is up from last year’s mark of 2.62.

It’s tough to put the finger on what’s wrong with the White Sox as, according to FanGraphs, their starting pitchers have a sub-four ERA, and their offense (wRC+ value of 100) is right around the league average.

While you never want to say that a team has quit on its manager, it’s hard to justify how this White Sox team is below .500. For months, we’ve heard about the White Sox just being able to flip the switch, but that’s proven to be much harder than expected.

My approach to this handicap is strictly from a value perspective, as I think the wrong team is favored in this contest. And with Kansas City still available at a plus price, I’ve got no problem taking a shot with the short underdogs.

White Sox ML +110

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