How winning the Ranger Suarez game impacted Phillies-Braves NLDS odds

The roadmap was pretty clear for the Philadelphia Phillies: steal the Ranger Suarez game Tuesday afternoon in Atlanta, and the driver’s seat was yours.

The Phillies, sizable underdogs heading into their National League Divisional Series with the Braves, are firmly in control of their own destiny now. The Phillies – behind some small ball, a lot of timely hitting and the resurgence of Nick Castellanos – held on to a 7-6 win in Game One and have their two best pitchers lined up for the next two games.

Here’s how Tuesday’s win impacted the odds for the NLDS series between these NL East rivals. (Odds are courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective of the time of writing.)

The Phillies entered Tuesday the smallest of all the underdogs in the divisional round, but at +168 (FanDuel) and the Braves at -182, oddsmakers were pretty sure the Braves would be the team to advance. Atlanta was dealing at around +500 to win the World Series. The Phillies around +1000. But there were reasons to believe in the Phillies despite what was thought to be working against them.

» READ MORE: Series pick: Phillies a live underdog with Wheeler, Nola as 1-2 punch

Atlanta has been one of the best teams in baseball for months. The Braves went 78-34 from June 1 on, and eventually erased a 10½ game deficit to the New York Mets to take the NL East and earn a bye and home field in the NLDS. The Phillies, meanwhile, sort of limped into the playoffs. The team’s best hitter, Bryce Harper, had a rough September. There were questions about Aaron Nola’s ability to pitch in big games.

Then came Game One. With the Phillies needing Zack Wheeler and Nola to get them past St. Louis and into the next round, Suarez was thrust into the biggest start of his five-season career against a powerful offense that has right-handed hitters in seven of the nine spots in the order. The well-rested Braves countered with lefty Max Fried, who had a 2.48 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in more than 185 innings of work in 2022.

Advantage: Braves. They were -200 to win the game and the smart bet was arguably to take the Braves, who beat the Phillies in 11 of 19 matchups this season, on the run line at -1.5.

But the Phillies got to Fried early, got enough out of Suarez, and held on late to take a 1-0 lead in the best-of-five series.

Now, with Wheeler slated to start Game Two Wednesday and Nola scheduled to pitch in the first Phillies home game since 2011, the Phillies have flipped the script. They are favored to move on to the National League Championship Series for the first time since 2010.

(Odds are as of 5:45 p.m. Tuesday afternoon)

» READ MORE: Complete Phillies playoff coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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