Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction: Bet on L.A.’s young starter over Philly’s struggling ace

We have a Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction for the final matchup of this three-game set.

Both teams are underachieving early, and now every game means more.

For the Phillies, the hope is that Bryce Harper immediately makes an impact after returning from Tommy John.

For the Dodgers, the hope is that starting pitcher Gavin Stone is immediately effective at the big-league level. The consensus top-50 prospect is making his MLB debut.

The Phillies also need starting pitcher Aaron Nola to turn his season around. Unfortunately, I don’t think that happens here.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

Nola’s fastball velocity is down considerably. He’s throwing it less than 92 mph on average this year, and it’s been much less effective.

I’m unsure if it’s correlated, but Nola’s secondary stuff has also been less effective. Specifically, his curveball, which has a +1 Run Value this season.

Either way, Nola is in trouble. His strikeout rate is down 10% from last season, his walk rate has nearly doubled and his ground-ball rate has dropped to a paltry 35.2%.

He’s not missing bats while allowing more traffic on the bases, so he’s ultimately allowing more run production. As a result, the Phillies are reeling, especially because they lack rotation depth.

Meanwhile, MLB fans are excited for Stone’s debut. He’s torn up Triple-A, averaging more than 10 K/9 with a 50% ground-ball rate, utilizing an incredible fastball-change-up mix alongside a plus slider.

» READ MORE: 76ers vs. Celtics prediction: Will Philly challenge for another upset with Joel Embiid back?

Stone has a legit 70-grade change-up, arguably the best change-up in the minors. His change-up should translate, and he can work off that pitch.

So, surprisingly, I’d give the starting pitching advantage to the Dodgers, which is a huge discrepancy from the market value of these two guys.

The Dodgers are the better lineup, as they’re crushing the baseball, ranking third in xwOBA and seventh in wRC+.

I give the bullpen advantage to the Phillies and make the defensive matchup a wash. But the Dodgers’ lineup and starting pitching advantages make LA the play.

Plus, it’s hard to trust the Phillies after the first two games of this series. The Dodgers played like the better team on Monday and Tuesday, and I expect them to capitalize again on Wednesday.

I’ll play the Dodgers ML (-112).

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.