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Sizing up Phillies betting markets ahead of the 2023 MLB season

How many games will the Phillies win? How many home runs will Kyle Schwarber hit? Does Trea Turner have a real MVP chance?

The Phillies will need Kyle Schwarber to power them out of the gates. How many homers will he hit?
The Phillies will need Kyle Schwarber to power them out of the gates. How many homers will he hit?Read moreCarmen Mandato / Getty Images

The Phillies made National League futures bettors happy — and a little richer — during their improbable run to the World Series five months ago.

Now, after an offseason that included the signing of All-Star shortstop Trea Turner, starting pitcher Taijuan Walker, and reliever Craig Kimbrel, the Phillies are back and ... better?

That remains to be seen. The season is starting and the Phillies are without two of their best hitters. Bryce Harper is recovering from Tommy John surgery and Rhys Hoskins will miss the season after tearing his ACL during a March 23 spring training game. They also have some question marks at the back end of their pitching rotation.

The Phillies aren’t the longest of long shots like they were entering the 2022 season, but a World Series appearance — let alone a win — would still be a bit of a surprise, according to oddsmakers.

Here’s a look at some Phillies futures odds ahead of the 2023 season.

Win total (FanDuel): 88.5 wins

The Phillies won 87 games last year with Harper playing just 99 games. What’s two more wins with Turner in the lineup, right?

Well, oddsmakers are usually pretty good at this thing.

The season starts with six road games, three against an improved Rangers team and three in New York vs. the Yankees. The April and May portion of the schedule also includes series against projected playoff teams the Astros, Mariners, Dodgers, Braves, and Mets.

We mention those months because it’s not yet clear when Harper’s bat will be back in the lineup, and it’s not hard to imagine the Phillies getting off to a bit of a slow start. Not to give oddsmakers more credit than they deserve, but this is a fascinating number. It’s a playoff win total, to be sure, but it’s hard to make a prediction on where the Phillies land here.

» READ MORE: Top 10 things to know about the 2023 Phillies

NL East odds (FanDuel)

Surprise, surprise. The Braves are favored again.

The Braves and Mets each won 101 games last season, and both teams are going to be quite good again. Atlanta’s win total number is 95.5 and New York’s is 93.5, so you can probably guess what the NL East odds look like:

  1. Braves +100

  2. Mets +155

  3. Phillies +400

  4. Marlins +4000

  5. Nationals +25000

How quickly the Nationals have fallen. World champions in 2019, they’re now side-by-side with the Oakland Athletics as the only teams with odds larger than 150/1 to win their division.

Back at the top, these numbers aren’t too surprising. The Braves should be small favorites, and the Phillies have a decent shot behind the Mets. It’s a three-team race.

» READ MORE: Rhys Hoskins’ torn ACL gives Nick Castellanos a chance to prove his $100 million worth

World Series odds (FanDuel)

Houston has the shortest odds (+600) to repeat and win the World Series again. How good is the NL East? The Phillies have just the eighth-shortest odds to win it all (+1500). Here’s how the board stacks up ahead of them:

  1. Astros +600

  2. Braves +750

  3. Dodgers +750

  4. Yankees +850

  5. Mets +900

  6. Padres +1000

  7. Blue Jays +1200

  8. Phillies +1500

How about the odds to just get back to the World Series? The Phillies are +750 to win the NL.

Trea Turner in the MVP mix

Did you watch the World Baseball Classic? It seems the Phillies’ prized free agent addition is ready to hit, and he should do a ton of that at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Turner hits for average and power, steals bases, and plays a good shortstop. If he does all of those things well, he’s going to find himself in the MVP discussion. He was fifth in voting for the award in 2021 and 11th in 2022.

BetMGM lists Turner with Fernando Tatís Jr. and Paul Goldschmidt tied with the fourth-shortest NL MVP odds.

  1. Juan Soto +550

  2. Mookie Betts +900

  3. Ronald Acuña Jr. +900

  4. Goldschmidt +1000

  5. Tatís +1000

  6. Turner +1000

Way down on the list of long shots is Kyle Schwarber (40/1) and Harper (66/1).

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper ‘doing great’, could be back before the end of May, Phillies believe

How many homers will Schwarber, Turner hit?

Schwarber was pretty electric in the postseason. He hit six homers after crushing 46 during the regular season. That trailed only home run leader Aaron Judge’s 62.

BetMGM set Schwarber’s over/under for home runs at 37.5 home runs. He’s topped that number only twice, last year and when he hit 38 homers in 2019.

Schwarber is 10/1 to be MLB’s home run leader.

Interestingly, BetMGM has Turner’s total at 21.5. He hit 21 last season and 28 in 2021.

What about the pitchers?

There was a pretty big disparity (as far as betting goes) between FanDuel and BetMGM as of March 24 when it comes to Aaron Nola’s strikeout total. FanDuel had that over/under set at 205.5 strikeouts, while BetMGM’s number was 207.5.

That seem low? It should. Nola has K’d at least 224 batters in the last four seasons in which he’s had at least 30 starts. Health is the biggest factor here, of course.

As for Zack Wheeler, his strikeouts per nine innings number dropped off a bit last year, from 10.4 in 2021 to 9.6. He did deal with some right forearm tendinitis and started 26 games. He struck out 163 batters in 153 innings.

You think Nola’s strikeout number disparity was big, check this out: At BetMGM, Wheeler’s over/under on strikeouts is 178.5. Over at FanDuel, it’s 172.5.

As far as their Cy Young possibilities, Nola (13/1) and Wheeler (16/1) were eighth and ninth, respectively, on the odds board at FanDuel.

Odds to make the playoffs (FanDuel)

Don’t let the doom and gloom over Harper’s absence and Hoskins’ injury fool you: The Phillies are expected to easily make the postseason again. It’s just that the most likely path is via the wild card again.

The Phillies are -195 to reach the playoffs.

Let the (real) games begin.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.