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Underdog Phillies not expected to get back to World Series, nearly a coin flip just to make MLB playoffs

If the Phillies are to repeat as National League champions, they'll do so against the odds ... again.

The Phillies are not expected to be partying as National League champions again. Will they defy the odds? (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
The Phillies are not expected to be partying as National League champions again. Will they defy the odds? (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)Read moreTimothy Nwachukwu / Getty Images
    by Jeff Neiburg, Action Network
    Published 

Part of what made the Philadelphia Phillies’ run to the World Series last year so fun was that it came out of nowhere. Against the odds.

The team that needed to clinch a wild-card spot in the last series of the regular season was not expected to represent the National League in the World Series vs. the mighty Houston Astros.

Even after the Phillies got by St. Louis in a three-game series, they entered the NLDS as +3500 underdogs to win the World Series.

Their odds are shorter entering the 2023 MLB season, +1400 at most sportsbooks. But those are the sixth-shortest odds in the National League. And, according to FanGraphs, the statistical analysis site, the Phillies have just a 55.5% chance at simply making the playoffs.

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Yes, the reigning National League champion is barely more than a coin flip to get back to the postseason. The Phillies, according to FanGraphs, have just an 8.1% chance of making the playoffs and earning a bye while doing so.

What gives?

A big question mark is Bryce Harper, who had Tommy John surgery in late November. Harper is targeting mid-March to swing a bat and the Phillies are maintaining a “by the All-Star break” timetable for his return. That means the Phillies will play a good chunk of their season without the bat they rode to the World Series.

They did, however, sign Trea Turner, and Turner could be the new leadoff hitter. The All-Star shortstop joins a lineup that, without Harper, still includes Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Rhys Hoskins and others.

The Phillies also added Taijuan Walker to an already talented rotation. Not to mention additions to the bullpen.

» READ MORE: World Series odds: Can the Astros win it all again? Oddsmakers believe so

So, why just a coin flip?

Look no further than the NL East odds:

National League East division odds (BetMGM)

  1. Atlanta Braves +135

  2. New York Mets +140

  3. Phillies +300

  4. Marlins +4000

  5. Nationals +25000

The Phillies remain behind the Braves and Mets both at the sportsbooks and at FanGraphs, which has the Braves at 92.4% to make the playoffs and the Mets at 84.1%. Both teams have talented lineups and great pitching staffs. The NL East will again be one of the best divisions in baseball.

As of now, the most likely path back to the Fall Classic for the Phillies is via the wild card. The Braves, Mets, or Phillies will win the NL East. One of them is likely to get a wild card spot. And there will obviously be competition for the other spot from the NL West and NL Central (Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Brewers, Cardinals).

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.