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Phillies vs. Mets preview: Bet on Aaron Nola to pitch Phillies to road win Wednesday night

Check out our betting preview for Wednesday’s Phillies vs. Mets game.

Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on May 25, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on May 25, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)Read moreKevin C. Cox / Getty Images
    by Tanner McGrath, Action Network
    Published 

The Phillies dropped the first of their three-game set against New York, and we have a Phillies vs. Mets prediction for Wednesday’s game.

Handicapping this game is cut and dry.

Odds via FanDuel. Subject to change.

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Phillies vs. Mets prediction: Analysis

Mets starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco is cooked. He boasts a 6.75 ERA and a 5.73 expected ERA behind one of the worst batted-ball profiles among MLB pitchers.

Carrasco has lost velocity on his fastball and control of the strike zone (10.6% walk rate). I don’t see him bringing up the back of this rotation for much longer.

Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola is also dealing with velocity and control issues, but he’s miles ahead of Carrasco as a viable starting pitcher. Nola still checks in with an expected ERA under 4.00 and two plus-pitches by FanGraphs’ Stuff+ model.

At his best, Nola is one of the elite workhorses in the league. While he hasn’t put everything together yet, he’s recorded eight consecutive outings of at least six innings, and he’s starting to hold his velocity better in the later innings.

Nola’s also upped his Whiff numbers, boasting a 25.7% strikeout rate over his past four starts.

» READ MORE: MLB futures: Re-analyzing the Phillies futures odds after seven weeks

Meanwhile, the Phillies have a fully-rested bullpen on Wednesday while the Mets used their highest-leverage relievers in Tuesday’s win (David Robertson, Adam Ottavino). The relief numbers are similar between the two units, meaning the Phillies should have a big advantage in the later innings of this game.

The Mets’ offense has been much better during May, but I don’t think it’s enough to compensate for the Phillies’ pitching advantage.

So, I’ll be backing the Phillies as short road favorites, hoping Carrasco continues to throw meatballs while Nola slowly bounces back. Also, maybe the Phillies’ offense can slightly bounce back after a tough series against Atlanta (Trea Turner and Bryce Harper were a combined 6-for-30).

Phillies vs. Mets pick

  1. Phillies ML (-120) | Play to (-125)

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