Rockies vs. Phillies prediction: Will Philly extend Colorado’s woes?

The Philadelphia Phillies’ Jekyll-and-Hyde start to the 2023 season continued during the team’s recent seven-game road trip.

Yes, the defending National League champs posted four multiple-run victories by a combined score of 34-15. But they also lost three games by a combined score of 22-6 (including shutouts of 13-0 and 3-0).

What version of the Phillies will step on the field at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday for an opener of a seven-game homestand?

We’re betting it’s the Jekyll version (or whatever the good one is). Because the other team that will step on the field is the Colorado Rockies, who have lost eight straight games overall and seven straight games on the road — and barely put up a fight in any of them.

Odds updated as of 11:30 a.m. ET on April 20.

The Rockies began the season in San Diego with a pair of upset victories by scores of 7-2 and 4-1.

That was back on March 30 and 31.

Colorado’s record since we moved on to April: 3-14 overall, including 0-7 on the road.

During this 17-game stretch, the Rockies have six losses of four runs or more (including a pair of 14-3 home losses to the Pittsburgh Pirates this week). They also have a trio of three-run defeats and a trio of two-run setbacks.

That’s right, 12 of Colorado’s 14 losses have been by multiple runs. (And for the record, three of their five victories were by multiple runs.)

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This partially explains why the Phillies are laying their biggest price of the season Thursday night. And why they’re even favored on the run line — despite still being three games under .500 themselves (8-11).

It’s not often that we recommend laying juice on the run line with a sub-.500 team. But we just can’t see the Phillies losing this game. If that premonition is accurate, there’s an excellent chance Philadelphia will cover the run line.

Here are the numbers to support that theory: 4-1, 5-2, 3-2, 15-3, 8-3, 14-3, 7-4, 5-2. Those are the final scores in the Phillies’ eight victories this season. We’re talking a single one-run victory and seven other triumphs by three runs or more.

In a nutshell, when the Phillies win, they almost always win big. And when the Rockies lose — which has happened a lot in the last three weeks — they often lose big.

Beyond all that, Philadelphia has decided edge on the mound in this contest.

Yes, Phillies starter Matt Strahm is coming off his worst performance of the season — the lefty lasted just 2 2/3 innings in Saturday’s 13-0 loss at Cincinnati, giving up three runs on two hits and five walks. However, Strahm went into that game having pitched nine scoreless innings in his first two starts, both of which the Phillies won.

So Strahm comes into this contest with a 2.13 ERA — which is more than four full runs better than the 8.78 ERA that Rockies starter Ryan Feltner will lug to the Citizens Bank Park mound.

Feltner’s stats in his two road starts: five runs allowed in 4 2/3 innings in Los Angeles; five runs allowed in 3 2/3 innings in Seattle.

The right-hander’s stats in his one career start against the Phillies, which occurred exactly 51 weeks ago in Philadelphia: four runs allowed in five innings.

Results in those three contests: Rockies lost 13-4 (L.A.), 9-2 (Seattle) and 7-3 (Philadelphia).

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Finally, Colorado is batting .213 as a team on the road against left-handed pitching while averaging three runs per nine innings. Philadelphia is batting .319 at home against right-handed pitching while averaging 7.3 runs per nine innings.

Given all this, we honestly thought about recommending a wager on the Phillies’ alternate run line of -2.5 runs. And it’s certainly not a terrible bet. But because Philadelphia’s bullpen is still a work in progress, we’ll stick with laying the -115 price on the traditional run line and call for a Phillies win by at least two runs.

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The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.