Bet on the Bulls money line as underdogs vs Heat Friday

Oddsmakers on the best NBA betting sites favor the Miami Heat by a couple of points over the Chicago Bulls in Friday’s win or go home game. This surprises me since Miami is without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, two of top four players.

I’m backing the Bulls moneyline from Caesars Sportsbook, which surprisingly has +110 odds.

I referenced it earlier, but the Heat looked bad in their loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. Even before Butler got hurt, the offense was Tyler Herro forcing up bad shots and barely converting (9-27 from the feld and 4-14 from three).

Herro will need a more aggressive Bam Adebayo to aid him, as Adebayo was a complete non-factor against the 76ers. Having to rely on a 35 year old Kevin Love, an inconsistent Caleb Martin, and inexperienced players Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic to pick up the slack doesn’t inspire confidence in me.

Defense was an area of concern as well, as Miami couldn’t capitalize on Joel Embiid playing clearly less than 100 percent healthy. They sagged off shooters too often and surrendered 23 free throw attempts. Miami can’t afford to get in foul trouble due to their lack of depth, and Butler’s absence losses them their best perimeter defender.

As for the Bulls, it has to be pointed out a large reason they scored 131 points against the Hawks is because Atlanta is an abysmal defensive team. It’s rare to see a postseason team play with as poor of defensive effort as the Hawks did.

While the Heat will put up more effort defensively than Atlanta and employ their zone, Chicago is a team capable of busting it. Coby White is white hot as an effective driver, finisher, and shooter. DeMar DeRozan’s mid-range expertise is what’s needed to bust a zone. And if Nikola Vucevic is on point, they’re especially dangerous.

Depth is a concern for the Bulls, as they don’t go very deep and rely on their bench players much. But without Butler or Rozier drawing fouls, that likely won’t be an issue unless an injury happens.

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Erik Spoelstra is a legendary coach and should have some adjustments in store. But if the Bulls hone in on either one of Adebayo or Herro, the other is going to be forced to put up too many bad shots and hurt the team efficiency wise.

The Bulls are as hot and cold as any team, and that shifts regularly during games. I wouldn’t be shocked if Chicago has some cold streaks due to Miami’s defense, and I see this game finishing below 206.5 total points.

But as long as White and DeRozan play solid (Which they should), the Bulls will be well equipped to win.

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