Bulls vs. Raptors prediction: How to bet Wednesday’s Eastern Conference play-in game

The Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors closed the regular season strong and easily qualified for the NBA’s play-in tournament.

But that doesn’t mean either team is happy to be in its current situation — that situation being: Win Wednesday, then win again on Friday, or start making summer vacation plans.

Then again, as recently as a few seasons ago, players and coaches from both teams already would be searching for their cabana clothes. Because under the NBA’s previous playoff format, Toronto and Chicago would’ve been eliminated from postseason contention after finishing ninth and 10th, respectively, in the Eastern Conference standings.

So the play-in tournament at least gives the Raptors and Bulls a shot to salvage an otherwise disappointing season.

Which team will take advantage of its second-chance opportunity and advance to a second elimination game Friday? According to the NBA play-in tournament wagering market, the answer is Toronto. And we happen to concur with that answer.

Odds updated as of 3 a.m. ET on April 11.

Much like the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference, the Bulls kicked things into overdrive after the NBA trade deadline and ensuing All-Star break.

Beginning with a 131-87 post-All-Star break pummeling of the Brooklyn Nets on Feb. 24, Chicago closed on a 14-9 run (12-10-1 ATS). And after the calendar flipped to March, no NBA team had a better road record than the Bulls (8-2 SU, 6-3-1 ATS).

» READ MORE: NBA championship futures: Clippers, Cavaliers worth betting as title long shots

However, hours before March arrived, Chicago closed out February with a 104-98 loss in Toronto as a 3.5-point road underdog.

Nearly four months earlier — on Nov. 6 — the Bulls traveled north of the border and lost 113-104 to the Raptors as a 4-point underdog. The very next day in the Windy City, Chicago avenged that defeat with a 111-97 rout of Toronto as a 2.5-point home chalk.

So the home favorite won and covered all three meetings this season. Just as the home favorite won and covered the final three meetings of the 2021-22 campaign.

Prefer a trend with a bigger sample size? No problem: Dating to the start of the 2020-21 season, the favorite has won and covered 12 consecutive times in this rivalry.

So advantage Toronto on Wednesday night. And it doesn’t end there.

Because while the Bulls had a lot of success on the road coming down the stretch, they still finished five games underwater as a visitor for the season.

Meanwhile, the Raptors had a legit home-court advantage for six months. They not only won 27 of 41 games in Canada, but they went 25-15-1 ATS. Only the Golden State Warriors (27-14 ATS) were more profitable for bettors at home.

Isolating just recent results, Toronto is on a 13-2 roll at home since Jan. 22 (11-3-1 ATS). Number of times in those 13 home victories that the Raptors prevailed by 5 points or more: 12.

» READ MORE: NBA championship futures: Clippers, Cavaliers worth betting as title long shots

As for the on-court matchup, both squads offer up a sensational 1-2 punch. For Toronto, it’s point guard Fred VanVleet and power forward Pascal Siakam — a duo that combines for 43.5 points, 11.9 rebounds and 13.0 assists per game.

For Chicago, it’s the backcourt tandem of Zach LaVine and ex-Raptor DeMar DeRozan. LaVine (24.8) and DeRozan (24.5) have near-identical scoring averages, and they supplement those combined 49.3 points per game with 9.1 rebounds and 9.3 assists.

Pretty much a wash, right?

But look what happens when you get beyond that quartet of stars. The Bulls have just two other players who average double figures in scoring — center Nikola Vucevic (17.6 ppg) and forward Patrick Williams (10.2 ppg). And among those in the regular rotation, only Vucevic (11.0) averages more than 4.6 rebounds per game.

Conversely, Toronto has four players beyond Siakam and VanVleet who net between 12.5 and 17.4 points per game. And five Raptors (including Siakam) average at least five boards per contest.

Pretty obvious which is the more well-rounded squad and which is overwhelmingly reliant on its big guns.

Now, is it possible those big guns show up in a big way Wednesday night and carry the Bulls to an upset — or at least keep the final score within range of the point spread? No doubt, it’s possible.

But is it likely? We’re betting against that — and doing so confidently.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.