Take 76ers’ money line vs Heat in Wednesday’s play-in game

Wednesday’s game between the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers sees the winner clinch the No. 7 seed and a first round matchup with the New York Knicks.

Oddsmakers across NBA betting sites have the 76ers as 5.5 point favorites. While those spread odds provide a better payout than a moneyline bet, I feel much more comfortable taking the 76ers money line outright in this one. The best odds are on FanDuel at -215.

The Heat are without point guard Terry Rozier (16.4 points per game since joining Miami). The 76ers are without reserves Robert Covington, De’Anthony Melton, and KJ Martin. Rozier’s absence will loom large as a facilitator and capable shooter.

The Heat have been incredibly snakebitten by injury. Tyler Herro missed 40 games, Jimmy Butler missed 22, and all the Heat’s reserves took turns missing notable time. Injuries are why they’re back in the play-in after last year’s stunning run to the NBA Finals.

Offense doesn’t come easy for Miami. They averaged the fifth fewest points and finished 20th in effective field goal percentage. Herro and Butler average 20.8 points, and Bam Adebayo averages 19.3. Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, and rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. are key role players.

The 76ers also blame injury for bein in the play-in as Joel Embiid missed 43 games. Tyrese Maxey proved himself as a capable number one talent during Embiid’s absence, but Philadelphia has been red hot since the reigning MVP returned.

Philadelphia ranks 15th in points per game but 24th in effective field goal percentage. They have a deep roster of supporting role players including Tobias Harris, Kelly Oubre Jr., and Buddy Hield. Inconsistency plagues all those players far too often, however.

» READ MORE: Joel Embiid’s health will be critical to Sixers, who have modest odds to win the NBA title

I predict a low scoring game between two elite defenses. I think the 76ers have the better roster on paper. I like Embiid and Maxey more than Butler and Adebayo. As inconsistent as Harris, Oubre and company are, they’re safer bets to play well with Embiid and Maxey shouldering most of the responsibility.

Although I’m backing the 76ers, the Heat turning the dial up in the postseason makes me uncomfortable backing Philadelphia to cover. Butler famously takes his game to another level in the playoffs. He proved doubters wrong countlessly last year starting with the play-in.

I respect Butler and Miami’s past tendencies, but Butler is now 34. The Heat’s bench was a letdown this year, and they’ll have to do produce more without Rozier. I predict Embiid will dominate Adebayo, and I don’t trust either Nikola Jovic or Martin defensively.

I think the 76ers come out victorious, but predicting the amount they win by is challenging given the nature of these teams.

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