Nets vs. 76ers prediction: Betting value is with Brooklyn in Game 1 in Philadelphia

It’s been 10 days since the Philadelphia 76ers played a game that truly mattered.

That all changes Saturday afternoon when the 76ers begin their quest to end a four-decade NBA title drought by welcoming the Brooklyn Nets to Wells Fargo Center for Game 1 of a best-of-7 Eastern Conference first-round playoff series.

Philadelphia enters the series as a significant favorite to advance out of the first round for the third straight year and fifth time in the last six seasons.

The Sixers also are a sizable chalk in Saturday’s opener.

None of this is shocking, of course, given that Philly swept the season series from the Nets and finished nine games ahead of their Atlantic Division rivals in the standings.

What might be a bit of a surprise? We’re taking the points with the road underdog in Game 1.

Odds updated as of 2:15 p.m. ET on April 14.

There’s not a lot of head-to-head data to support a hypothesis that Brooklyn will keep it close in Game 1 on Saturday.

After all, Philadelphia dominated various iterations of the Nets this year, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. That includes one meaningless 19-point victory that kicked off the preseason and one meaningless 29-point victory that concluded the regular season.

In between, the Sixers beat Brooklyn three additional times by a total of 16 points.

It didn’t matter if Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons were on the court in Nets uniforms (as was the case to start the season) or not (as will be the case in this series). Philadelphia took care of business each and every time.

That includes a 115-106 victory at Wells Fargo Center on Nov. 22, when Durant, Irving and Simmons combined for 54 points but still couldn’t beat a mishmash Philly outfit that was missing Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey.

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So what’s the logic for fading the 76ers in Game 1 — especially since they finished with the NBA’s best overall ATS record (48-34) and fourth-best ATS mark at home (25-16)?

Three words: Inflated point spread.

Because this series features a huge personnel mismatch, oddsmakers are placing a tax on the 76ers, both for Game 1 and the entire series. It’s a tax we’re not willing to pay.

As noted above, Philly hasn’t been involved in a high-pressure game in some time. Conversely, Brooklyn had to finish the regular season strong to lock down the Eastern Conference’s No. 6 seed, thus avoiding the NBA play-in tournament.

The Nets did just that by winning five of six games before losing to Philadelphia 134-105 at home on Sunday in what was a 48-minute battle of bench players.

Take out that completely inconsequential result and Brooklyn has no-showed just twice in its last 19 games dating to March 3. One was a 121-107 loss at Oklahoma City on March 14 and the other was a 119-106 setback at Orlando on March 26.

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Otherwise, the Nets went 11-6 during that 19-game stretch. Margins of defeat in the six losses: 5 points (at Milwaukee), 5 points (vs. Sacramento), 6 points (vs. Denver), 6 and 2 points (both at Cleveland) and 5 points (vs. Minnesota).

As for the 11 victories, five came against playoff or play-in tournament opponents (upset wins at Boston, Minnesota, Denver and Miami, and a 17-point home win over Atlanta).

Add it all up, and Brooklyn is 5-7 SU and 7-5 ATS in its last 12 meaningful games against playoff-caliber competition. But only once in those dozen contests did the Nets lose by more than six points (the 14-point loss at Oklahoma City).

Do we believe Brooklyn will spring the Game 1 upset? No. Nor do we believe this series will be a long one — Philadelphia has way too much firepower.

But the Nets certainly have the ability to at least put a scare into the Sixers on Saturday. And even if Embiid, Harden and Co. are ahead by 10-12 points late in the fourth quarter, Brooklyn still will have a chance to squeeze out a backdoor cover.

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