NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds, pick

Our preview of the NFL futures market continues with a look at the Defensive Rookie of the Year race.

This award was first introduced following the 1967 season, and since then, it’s been dominated by two position groups.

We’ll break down the previous winners and see if we can ascertain any clues as to who can win the award for the upcoming season.

» READ MORE: NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, pick

» READ MORE: NFL odds, predictions: Two Week 1 bets we’re making today

Although you’ve got to be really in the weeds of college football to know some of the players on this list, there are a few strategies you can use to make things easier on yourself. One is determining which position groups are more likely to win the award.

I alluded to this in my opening, so here’s what I have in mind:

I grouped all the previous winners into four groups: defensive line, linebackers, cornerbacks, and safeties.

And while I thought about lumping in the safeties with the cornerbacks, I decided against it, as it’s probably rarer to find rookie safeties who start in the league because of their importance as the last line of defense.

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Based on my findings, safeties have won the award twice, most recently in 1990. Cornerbacks are next up with the most recent win in 2017. Defensive linemen have 18 wins, with the last win in 2020.

Lastly, linebackers have won the award 28 times, with the most recent winner being last season, Micah Parsons. Parsons finished the season with 13 sacks, leaving him tied for third place with Dwight Freeney for the most sacks recorded by a rookie.

It’s worth noting that the three previous winners before Parsons were either defensive linemen or linebackers, and each recorded no fewer than seven sacks.

First, I think bettors should avoid trying to overcomplicate this Defensive Rookie of the Year market. Players that play closer to the line of scrimmage have a distinct advantage compared to those in the secondary simply because they have more opportunities to make impactful plays.

Sacks are a big part of any player’s stat line, whereas interceptions tend to have a bit of a luck factor.

As a result, if you can identify the rookies that can rack up a bunch of sacks, you’re well on your way to picking the next Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Second, it does help if you target players on good teams. It’s normal to expect that voters are more likely to give additional praise to a rookie when they’re playing for a team that’s doing well in the standings. Note that each of the past five winners were on teams that qualified for the playoffs.

When you put it all together, the player that ticks all the boxes is Packers linebacker Quay Walker, who is currently available at 17-to-1.

Walker should walk right into the starting lineup of a Green Bay defense that finished the regular season ranked 22nd in Football Outsiders DVOA metric. We’re talking about a Packers team that was tied for the best record in all of football at 13-4.

According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, the Packers ranked eighth in hurries (77) but tied for 17th with a quarterback knockdown rate of 8.5%.

I think Walker will be able to inject a ton of speed into the Packers’ defense. And while there will be plenty of movement in this market between now and the end of the season, Walker is the first player I want to add to my portfolio before reassessing my position later in the season.

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