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NFL Preseason Week 3 Preview: Dolphins vs. Eagles odds, prediction and picks

Action Network’s Michael Arinze breaks down the Eagles’ Week 3 preseason matchup against the Dolphins

Eagles wide receiver Zach Pascal (#3) jokes with quarterback Gardner Minshew (#10) prior to the start of a preseason game against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium on August 21, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Eagles wide receiver Zach Pascal (#3) jokes with quarterback Gardner Minshew (#10) prior to the start of a preseason game against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium on August 21, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)Read moreJason Miller / Getty Images

The Philadelphia Eagles wrap up their preseason slate when they take on the Dolphins in Florida Saturday night. This is a critical game for players looking to make the final 53-man roster, so there’s still plenty at stake for both sides.

However, whether we see any starters play remains in the air.

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said the changing dynamics in the league regarding the preseason schedule has forced some coaches to rethink using the final game as a dress rehearsal, which could be the most telling for bettors as we’ve seen the point spread move in favor of the Eagles and a line move to the under.

We’ll break down what it all means as we try to piece together the clues to find an angle in the game.

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Dolphins vs. Eagles NFL odds

Moneyline: PHI (+135) vs. MIA (-160)

Spread: PHI +3 (-105) vs. MIA -3 (-115)

Total: Over 37.5 (-110) | Under 37.5 (-110)

It’s been a profitable preseason thus far, as we’re 4-1 heading into the final week, and 5-1 if you count our lean to the over Monday night. And as much as I’d like to ride my hot hand, I’m not sure I can go back to the well with another play on the total.

But here’s what I do know: Historically, we tend to see quite a few low-scoring affairs towards the end of the preseason. According to our Action Labs database, the under in Weeks 3 and 4 is 259-213-7 for a profit of 30.53 units. Both Thursday games finished under the total.

The under in Dolphins games in this spot has also been profitable. It is 12-5-1 for 6.62 units when Miami is the home team.

» READ MORE: NFL odds, predictions: Two Week 1 bets we’re making today

As we head into this game, it’s worth noting that on Thursday, Miami had to cancel their joint practice with the Eagles due to a stomach virus that made its way around the team. The Eagles didn’t report any issues on their end, so they proceeded to have practice on their own. Thus, this could be another incentive for the Dolphins to be cautious about who they play on Saturday.

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It wouldn’t surprise me if both teams kept the clock running in the second half of this game, and we should expect Miami to at least try to get its running game going. The Dolphins rushed for 49 yards on 14 carries in their first preseason game and followed up that effort with 37 yards on 18 carries in Week 2.

McDaniel tried to downplay the slow start by saying it’s been more of a case of having “one or two guys off” on a given play. But with Week 1 coming up fast, the Dolphins have plenty of work to do on their offensive line. One of my favorite angles in the preseason is backing teams with strong running games because the quarterback play can be erratic with so many interchanging parts.

Philadelphia has had better success running the ball than Miami, as evidenced by its 232 rushing yards through two preseason games. I suspect that’ll play a significant factor in the game, so I’ll take the points here with road underdogs at +3.

Dolphins vs. Eagles pick

Eagles +3

Bonus: Lean under 37.5

» READ MORE: NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, pick

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