NFL Super Bowl odds: Eagles still second choice to win it all

It wouldn’t be entirely accurate to label the Philadelphia Eagles as the Rodney Dangerfield of the 2022-23 NFL season.

That said, after looking at the updated Super Bowl odds, there’s surely at least one entrepreneurial Eagles fan out there scrambling to print a bunch of “No Respect” T-shirts in Eagles green and white. And you have to believe at least one of those shirts will be hanging in the Eagles’ locker room soon enough.

Despite entering its seventh week as the NFL’s only unbeaten team, Philadelphia still is not sitting on top of the Super Bowl odds board. Instead, the Buffalo Bills — who suffered their second loss of the season 72 hours ago, this one to the Jets as a double-digit favorite — remain the clear favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Arizona in February.

With the 2022-23 NFL campaign having reached its midpoint, here’s a look at the latest happenings in the Super Bowl betting market at BetMGM, along with an update on the NFL conference championship odds picture.

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Not counting a 51-26 home loss to the Cowboys in last year’s finale — a game that meant nothing to either team — the Eagles have won 12 consecutive regular-season contests. It’s a run that dates back nearly a calendar year.

During that same stretch, the Bills have lost four regular-season games, all of them meaningful.

So why do oddsmakers continue to have Buffalo (6-2 record) well ahead of the Eagles (8-0) on the Super Bowl LVII odds board? Two main reasons: The betting market is flooded with money on the Bills to win this year’s title (more on that later); and Buffalo has faced (and will continue to face) a much tougher slate of opponents than Philadelphia.

It’s difficult to argue the latter point. By any objective measure, the Eagles own just two victories against quality competition, and both came at home. One was a 24-7 whipping of the Minnesota Vikings in Week 2 — the only loss the Vikings (7-1) have suffered this season. The other was a 26-17 triumph over a Cowboys squad that didn’t have starting quarterback Dak Prescott.

Philadelphia’s other six wins were against teams — the Lions, Commanders, Jaguars, Cardinals, Steelers and Texans — that are under .500 entering Week 10. Combined record of those six teams: 15-35-1.

» READ MORE: Eagles are biggest favorite in early lines for NFL’s Week 10

Meanwhile, Buffalo opened the season with a 21-point road win at the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, who have since gone on to drastically underachieve. In seven games since, the Bills have faced five teams with a winning record in the Titans (5-3), Dolphins (6-3), Ravens (6-3), Chiefs (6-2) and surprising Jets (6-3).

As for the Bills’ three games against opponents that currently have losing records (Los Angeles, Green Bay and Pittsburgh)? Buffalo blasted all three by the combined score of 96-30.

The Eagles, of course, have nothing to apologize for. They can only play who is on their schedule. And Philly has more than handled its business, winning six of eight games by more than a touchdown.

If the Eagles keep winning — and for the second straight week, they will take the field as the NFL’s biggest betting favorite, this time at home against Washington on Monday night — their Super Bowl odds will continue to shorten.

As it is, Philadelphia dipped from +550 last week to +500 this week at BetMGM. In the process, coach Nick Sirianni’s squad leapt over the Kansas City Chiefs, who fell to No. 3 on BetMGM’s Super Bowl odds board after Sunday night’s overtime win over the Titans.

Also, as you’ll see in the updated conference championship odds, the Eagles remain the overwhelming favorite to reach the Super Bowl for the fourth time in franchise history.

» READ MORE: Philadelphia Eagles odds: Unbeaten squad flying high in futures markets

If you believe NFL oddsmakers, we’re headed for an Eagles vs. Bills Super Bowl matchup. Philadelphia is down to +180 to win the NFC at BetMGM, with the closest pursuer being the San Francisco 49ers (+450), followed by the Cowboys and Vikings (both +550).

In fact, if any team has a right to play the Rodney Dangerfield card, it’s Minnesota. The Vikings have more wins (and fewer losses) on their ledger than any team not named the Eagles. Yet in the NFC championship odds race, they trail San Francisco, which is 4-4, and are tied with Dallas (6-2).

Over on the AFC side, Buffalo’s odds to reach the Super Bowl stretched a bit after its Week 9 loss at the Jets. Still, the Bills — who have gone from +110 to +150 — remain comfortably ahead of the Chiefs (+275).

The only other AFC entrant within shouting distance of Buffalo and Kansas City in BetMGM’s conference championship odds market is Baltimore. The Ravens moved from +750 to +600 to win the AFC after posting their third straight victory, a 27-13 blowout at New Orleans on Monday night.

Looking at the complete AFC and NFC picture at BetMGM, only seven teams — Buffalo, Philadelphia, Kansas City, San Francisco, Dallas, Minnesota and Baltimore — have single-digit odds to reach the Super Bowl.

Throw in the Dolphins (+1200), Bengals (+1400) and Chargers (+1600) in the AFC, and the Bucs (+1000) and Seahawks (+1400) in the NFC, and only a dozen teams are thought to have a legitimate shot at playing in the Super Bowl — and we’re only halfway through the regular season.

Remember how we mentioned that the Super Bowl betting market has already taken a flood of Bills money? Here are some numbers to back that up, at least from BetMGM’s point of view.

Among all 32 NFL teams, BetMGM has written more tickets (13.4%) and taken more money (19.5%) on the Bills to win Super Bowl LVII. Next in line are the Chiefs at 11.1% (tickets) and 12.4% (money).

From there it’s a big drop to Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. The Eagles are No. 3 in tickets (6.7%) and No. 4 in handle (6.4%), and Tampa Bay is reversed at No. 3 in money (7.2%) and No. 4 in bets (6.1%).

Meanwhile, nearly one in five bets to win the NFC at BetMGM is on the Eagles, who are No. 1 in NFC championship tickets (20.2%). Philadelphia has seen an even greater percentage of money (21.4%), yet that’s topped by San Francisco. Nearly one-quarter (24.2%) of all the cash wagered to win the NFC at BetMGM is on the 49ers.

In the AFC, it’s all about Buffalo and Kansas City. At BetMGM, the Bills have attracted the most bets (17.2%) and dollars (18.5%) to return to the Super Bowl for the first time in more than a quarter century, while the Chiefs are No. 2 in tickets (15.4%) and money (18.0%).

From a liability perspective, BetMGM bookmakers are rooting against the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles to win the Super Bowl, and against the Chiefs and Eagles to win their respective conferences.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.