NFL Week 4 survivor pool picks, predictions: Packers are an easy choice vs. short-handed Patriots

We had to sweat the final few minutes of the Vikings’ 28-24 win over the Lions on Sunday, but we perfectly mapped out our picks in last week’s survivor column – including telling you to stay away from the juggernaut Bills, who couldn’t escape Miami with a Week 3 win as road favorites.

This week is full of short favorites across the board at BetMGM, but there’s one clear choice above the rest, and any other is tempting fate. Here’s how we’d attack Week 4 of your survivor pool:

The Packers aren’t just the best choice here; they’re the only choice, and I can’t imagine why you’d choose anyone else.

Green Bay (-500) is the only team with a better than 75% chance to win by implied odds, and I’m not sure I’d even give the Patriots that much of a shot given everything that’s gone wrong for this group. Mac Jones won’t be available for the Patriots, who will have to turn to veteran Brian Hoyer — who has lost each of his last 11 starts — or rookie Bailey Zappe, who the Patriots picked in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft.

Neither of those options are good enough to transcend an otherwise lackluster roster around them. Meanwhile, the Packers just gutted out a tough win over the preseason NFC favorite Buccaneers and have won 14 consecutive regular-season games at home. This won’t be close.

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I repeat: the Packers are the only reasonable choice this week for the vast majority of you. But if Green Bay isn’t an available option, or you simply like to live life dangerously, this might be the time to cash in your chips on the Eagles as big home favorites.

I’ll be honest, I don’t love the matchup here against the Jaguars, who are somewhere between plucky and actually good after blowing out the Chargers and Colts in consecutive games. Still, Philly has steamrolled its first three opponents — save for a late Lions rally in Week 1 — and is mostly healthy, which isn’t guaranteed across the rest of the season.

I’d still highly recommend saving the Eagles for a more favorable matchup down the road. But, if you’re light on options, this is the only other one I’d even consider.

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I don’t know how anyone could watch the Chargers on Sunday — when they were dominated by the Jaguars on both sides of the ball — and stake their survivor pool on them the following week.

We know that Justin Herbert (ribs) was battling through serious pain, but isn’t that the case here, too? It’s not like the rest of the team boasts a clean bill of health, either. All-Pro tackle Rashawn Slater (biceps) and receiver Jalen Guyton (ACL) are both out for the year, while edge rusher Joey Bosa (groin), receiver Keenan Allen (hamstring), center Corey Linsley (knee), and cornerback J.C. Jackson (ankle) are all uncertain for Week 4.

That’s a significant list of key players who likely won’t be 100% even if they do play. Yes, the Texans wilted late against the lowly Bears and are yet to win a game, but this has trap game written all over it for the road favorites.

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