Jalen Hurts still among favorites to win NFL MVP in star-studded field

After yet another wild week of football, one of the most crowded NFL MVP races in recent memory got even messier in the aftermath of Week 10. And it’s anyone’s guess how this one will end.

Patrick Mahomes remains the clear frontrunner at BetMGM, dealing as a +125 favorite after throwing for 331 yards and four touchdowns in the Chiefs’ win on Sunday. It gets messy after that, as Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is one of three players tied for second place at 5/1 – a list that includes preseason favorite Josh Allen and Hurts’ former college teammate Tua Tagovailoa in a race that’s far too early to call.

It’s easy to see why Mahomes is still pacing the field after another stellar performance against the Jaguars, padding an already gaudy resume through the first 10 weeks.

Entering this week, the Chiefs star leads the league in passing yards (2,936) and passing touchdowns (25) – the latter of which has determined the MVP winner in six of the last seven years. His QBR (78.6) is the highest since his award-winning 2018 season, and he’s actually averaging more passing yards per game (326.2) than he did in that record-setting MVP campaign.

Mahomes’ strong play as of late has helped him gain ground in this race, especially with his fiercest competitors both seeing their odds lengthen after losing efforts in Week 10.

» READ MORE: NFL futures odds: Eagles’ loss to Washington barely moves needle

Longtime favorite Josh Allen suffered one of the worst losses of his career, throwing two red-zone interceptions and fumbling it at his own goal line to key the Vikings’ epic 17-point comeback. He’s now thrown multiple picks in three consecutive games for the first time since being drafted in 2018, and the Bills face an uphill battle to even win their own division.

Allen’s shoddy play served as a perfect backdrop for Hurts to possibly seize the top spot in this market with a strong showing on Monday. Instead, Philadelphia’s dual-threat star finished with just 175 passing yards and 28 rushing yards – both among his worst efforts all year – and saw his team’s undefeated streak snapped by the Commanders in stunning fashion.

That opened the door for Dolphins star Tua Tagovailoa to earn a share of second place after a dominant (and dramatic) start to the season. The third-year passer leads the league in QBR (82.6), passer rating (118.4), and touchdown rate (7.3%), and he’s now thrown for three touchdowns and zero interceptions in three straight games.

His latest effort against the Browns earned “M-V-P” chants from the Miami faithful, whose team leads the AFC East thanks to his stellar play. In fact, the team’s splits with and without him make a compelling case on their own for his MVP credentials: the Dolphins are a perfect 7-0 when Tagovailoa plays at least 50% of the snaps and 0-3 when he doesn’t.

Those four aren’t the only players in contention – Geno Smith, anyone? – but the winner in this market will likely be whichever of those four makes the strongest case over the final eight weeks. At this rate, Mahomes would seem to have the inside track, but this race feels destined for late-season chaos given what we’ve seen to this point.

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