Super Bowl odds: Eagles enter playoffs among top four title favorites

The NFL’s 18-week marathon of a regular season is over and 16 teams — including the defending champs — have commenced their eight-month vacation.

That leaves 14 contenders for the Vince Lombardi Trophy, which will be awarded at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, in precisely 33 days.

Of those contenders, only a handful have a legitimate chance to be the last team standing come Feb. 12 — that is, if you believe the Super Bowl odds market.

That market has the top two seeds in each conference — Kansas City and Buffalo in the AFC; Philadelphia and San Francisco in the NFC — with by far the shortest odds to win Super Bowl LVII.

Of course, a year ago, none of the top two seeds reached the Super Bowl. Neither did a No. 3 seed.

In other words, there’s value on the Super Bowl odds board. The question is: Can you successfully pinpoint (and profit from) it?

Here’s an updated look at Super Bowl odds entering NFL Wild Card Weekend — along with two down-the-board futures bets worth considering (one from each conference).

Odds updated as of 4:45 p.m. ET on Jan. 10.

Three teams have been jockeying for position atop the Super Bowl odds board basically since the beginning of October: the Chiefs, Bills and Eagles.

In recent weeks, a fourth squad — the 49ers — joined the mix. That quartet finished the regular season with a combined 54-13 record.

Among the group, Philadelphia did its damage in the first three months of the campaign. The Eagles raced out to an 8-0 start and were 13-1 before dropping two of their final three games.

Conversely, the other three teams finished with a flourish. Buffalo comes into the playoffs having won seven in a row, while Kansas City went 10-1 over its last 11 games, winning the last five straight.

No team, though, is running as hot as San Francisco. The 49ers finished the regular season on an NFL-best 11-game winning streak, their most recent loss coming at home to the Chiefs back on Oct. 13.

More stunning than the winning streak itself: Brock Purdy, a rookie quarterback taken with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, led San Francisco to its last seven wins.

So it makes sense that Kansas City, Buffalo, Philadelphia and San Francisco are sitting in the Super Bowl odds catbird’s seat. But that doesn’t mean the final matchup — let alone champion — is a lock to involve those four squads.

After all, only one top-two seed reached the Super Bowl the past two years. That was the Chiefs in 2020, and they were upset by No. 5-seed Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV (which was held on the Buccaneers’ home field).

Last year’s title game matched a pair of No. 4 seeds, the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals. Like Tampa, Los Angeles won it all in its own stadium (the Rams and Bucs are the only two teams in the Super Bowl era to do so).

» READ MORE: Bills, Bengals, 49ers big early favorites for NFL’s Wild Card Weekend

So looking beyond the top four favorites, which playoff entrants are best equipped to turn the postseason bracket upside-down and make a Super Bowl run?

In the AFC, our money is on the third-seeded Bengals. Cincinnati carries an eight-game winning streak into the playoffs (second only to the Niners). And since starting the season with consecutive losses to the Steelers and Cowboys, the Bengals are 13-2.

With stud quarterback Joe Burrow surrounded by a wealth of talent, Cincinnati has the look of a live Super Bowl underdog for the second straight year.

The Bengals, who handed Kansas City its only defeat over the final 11 weeks of the regular season, looks every bit as good as the Chiefs and Bills. Yet Cincinnati’s Super Bowl odds are double those of Kansas City and Buffalo.

Caesars Sportsbook has the Bengals at +800 to win the title, which is slightly better than BetMGM and FanDuel (both +750). Meanwhile, the Chiefs are as low as +325 (at BetMGM) to win it all, while the Bills are ranging from +400 (at both BetMGM and Caesars) to +420 (FanDuel).

Over in the NFC, things are extremely top heavy. Philadelphia and San Francisco have identical +500 odds to win the Super Bowl at both BetMGM and FanDuel. Caesars has the 49ers (+450) as a slight favorite over the Eagles (+550).

From there, the bottom falls out to the Cowboys. Dallas is currently the third choice in the NFC and sixth overall in Super Bowl odds at +1300 (FanDuel, Caesars) and +1400 (BetMGM).

Then comes another huge drop to the next two NFC teams: Tampa Bay (ranging from +2500 to +2800) and Minnesota (+3000).

» READ MORE: Super Bowl odds: Eagles featured prominently in title game exacta matchups

Honestly, it’s difficult to recommend any NFC team to win the Super Bowl other than Philadelphia or San Francisco — both seem that much better than the rest of the field.

Then again, the Eagles have injury concerns and the 49ers have experience concerns.

Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts returned to action Sunday after missing two weeks with a shoulder injury. While he went the whole way in an NFC East-clinching victory over the Giants, it was clear that Hurts’ shoulder wasn’t close to 100 percent (although it might get there during the team’s bye week).

As for San Francisco, it has an embarrassment of riches when it comes to talent. But can that talent carry a rookie quarterback through the high-pressure gauntlet of the NFL playoffs?

If so, it will be reminiscent of the New England Patriots’ first Super Bowl title run with Tom Brady under center.

Which brings us to our Super Bowl long shot from the NFC: Tampa Bay.

Obviously, Brady and the Bucs have been more off than on this season — and that’s being kind. The reality is, after starting the season with consecutive road wins, Tampa Bay went 6-9.

Yet the Bucs won their division, and as a result, they get to host Monday night’s wild-card playoff game against an extremely flawed Cowboys team. It’s a team Tampa defeated 19-3 in Dallas to start the season — and a team Brady is 7-0 against in his storied career.

If the Bucs survive Dallas, they’ll travel to Philadelphia. Win that, and they likely would return to San Francisco, where Tampa got crushed 35-7 back in Week 14.

Purdy thoroughly outplayed Brady that day. Could he do it again? Maybe. But will it be a huge surprise if the 45-year-old legend finds his way back to the Super Bowl — and wins it for an eighth time?

Yeah, actually, it would be. But doubting Brady has been a losing proposition over the past two-plus decades. So to get him and the fourth-seeded Bucs at 28-to-1 odds to win the Super Bowl?

Let’s just say we’ve made dumber bets than that.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.