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Titans vs. Eagles prediction: Tennessee will keep it close Sunday at The Linc

Take the points with a competitive Titans team that only has been blown out once this season

Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans rumble into Philadelphia on Sunday for a game against the Eagles. Henry comes into the contest ranked second in the NFL in rushing yards (1,048) and third in rushing touchdowns (10). (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans rumble into Philadelphia on Sunday for a game against the Eagles. Henry comes into the contest ranked second in the NFL in rushing yards (1,048) and third in rushing touchdowns (10). (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)Read moreGreg Fiume / Getty Images

The Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans bring a combined 17-5 record into Sunday’s cross-conference battle at Lincoln Financial Field. So from a pure record standpoint, it’s the NFL’s best matchup of Week 14 — even better than Chiefs-Bengals (16-6 combined mark) and Dolphins-49ers (15-7).

Of course, the Eagles — who are an NFL-best 10-1 — are responsible for the majority of those 17 victories. But Tennessee (7-4) has been an NFL bettor’s best friend this season. The Titans are tied with the Bengals and New York Giants atop the point spread standings at 8-3 ATS. That includes cashing in eight of their last nine contests.

Within that 8-1 ATS run, Tennessee has covered five straight as a visitor. And although they lost, 20-16, to Cincinnati last week as a 1-point home underdog, the Titans are still 4-1 ATS when catching more than a point this season (with three outright upsets).

So is Tennessee the right side as a mid-range road underdog Sunday — against an Eagles team that is 5-1 SU and ATS at The Linc? We think so.

Here’s our Titans vs. Eagles prediction.

Note: Odds updated as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 2.

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Titans vs. Eagles Prediction: Pick

  1. Titans +4.5, -106 (at FanDuel)

Titans vs. Eagles Prediction: Analysis

Oddsmakers and the NFL betting market have caught up with the Eagles.

After a 5-1 ATS spurt that ended Oct. 30, Philadelphia cashed in just one of its four November games. That was last week’s 40-33 shootout victory over Green Bay.

The Eagles went off as a 6.5-point favorite against the Packers. So technically they covered by a half-point, although the line was Philly -7 until late in the week.

Sure, one could make the same market-correction claim against the Titans after their Week 12 home loss to the Ja’Marr Chase-less Bengals. But Tennessee was in that game the entire way. Plus, after covering in an NFL-best eight straight contests, the Titans were due for an off week.

The fact remains Tennessee has — at the very least — been competitive in every game since opening the season 0-2. Those two defeats: a last-minute 21-20 home loss to the better-than-expected Giants in Week 1, followed by a 41-7 no-show at Buffalo.

Not only does the Bills debacle represent the only time this season the Titans have been blown out, it’s the only time they’ve lost a game by more than four points.

Tennessee has road wins at Indianapolis (a team that took Philadelphia to the wire two weeks ago); Washington (the only team to beat the Eagles this year, and it was in Philly); Houston (with the Titans starting a rookie quarterback who completed just three passes); and Green Bay (a 10-point rout at Lambeau Field).

Tennessee’s only road loss since Buffalo? At Kansas City in Week 9. Despite having to start that same rookie quarterback (Malik Willis), the Titans took the Chiefs to overtime, falling 20-17 as a 14-point underdog.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

So as good as the Eagles are — in all facets — we’re confident Tennessee will at least hang around in this game. And that confidence is rooted in the Titans’ defense.

Since giving up 21, 41 and 22 points in the first three games against the Giants, Bills and Raiders, Tennessee hasn’t allowed more than 20 points to any opponent.

We’re talking eight straight contests surrendering between 10 and 20 points, for a per-game average of 15.1.

Has the Titans’ defense faced some putrid quarterbacks during this stretch? Oh, yeah. But in November, that defense held Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow to 20, 17 and 20 points, respectively.

Might Philadelphia on Sunday break Tennessee’s eight-game streak of allowing 20 points or less? Maybe. After all, the Eagles have been held under 20 points just once themselves.

» READ MORE: ‘I feel like I’ve won’: Eagles’ A.J. Brown reflects on trade, looks forward to playing the Titans

But even if Jalen Hurts and Co. put up 24 points, we see no reason why the Titans can’t get to 20. After all, in the last month, the Texans’ and Colts’ anemic offenses put up 17 and 16 points on Philly.

And in their last two home games, the Eagles surrendered 33 points to the Packers and 26 points to Washington (discounting the Commanders’ meaningless game-ending TD on a fumble return that led to the 32-21 final score).

Although the Eagles’ run defense has improved the past two games, it remains a weak link. So we expect the Titans to lean heavily on bruising running back Derrick Henry in an effort to control time of possession and shorten the game. We also expect the Titans’ defense stand tall once again.

Will Tennessee spring the upset? Not sure about that. But either way, this smells like a three-point result. So grab the points with Tennessee at FanDuel.

Titans vs. Eagles odds (via FanDuel)

  1. Point spread: Titans (+4.5, -106) @ Eagles (-4.5, -114)

  2. Moneyline: Titans (+180) @ Eagles (-215)

  3. Total: 44.5 points

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