Betting Commercial Content. 21+. Provided by Action Network, official betting partner of The Inquirer.MLB preview: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds, prediction and picks
The Action Network’s Michael Arinze examines whether the Phillies can bounce back after blowing a 7-0 lead vs. the Diamondbacks
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If you read my preview yesterday and backed the Diamondbacks, you’re probably thinking, “How’d he do it? How’d he have Arizona when the public and sharps were largely aligned on the Phillies with 75% of the bets and 74% of the money according to our Action Network market report.”
Well, for 3 1/2 innings, it looked like a bad play. But I guess the Diamondbacks had the Phillies right where they wanted them after spotting them seven runs. Arizona then responded with 13 unanswered to pull off an improbable comeback.
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The Phillies will try to dust themselves off on Tuesday when they send Aaron Nola to the mound for his 26th start of the year. Arizona will counter with South Jersey’s own Zac Gallen, who has had a tremendous campaign.
This is a tricky spot with two quality pitchers on the mound. We’ll do a deep dive into the numbers as we try to find where the value might lie in this matchup.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks MLB odds
Moneyline: PHI (-140) vs. ARI (+115)
Spread: PHI -1.5 (+125) vs. ARI +1.5 (-150)
Total: Over 7 (-120) | Under 7 (+100)
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Phillies vs. Diamondbacks probable pitchers
Aaron Nola (9-10, 3.08 ERA) vs. Zac Gallen (9-2, 2.66 ERA)
The Diamondbacks should now have the Phillies’ attention. Not only has Arizona won four straight games, but it’s also on a 6-0 run at home against the Phillies.
Both pitchers in Tuesday’s contest are more than capable of pitching their teams to victory. And although Nola has a sub-.500 win-loss record, his advanced metrics suggest he’s been a bit unlucky given his 2.61 xERA and 2.88 xFIP.
In contrast, Gallen could experience some slight regression, as evidenced by a higher xERA (3.43) and xFIP (3.51).
What’s intriguing about this matchup is that while the Phillies desperately want to make amends for Monday’s catastrophic collapse, Gallen is also seeking some redemption after allowing six runs (four earned) in a 7-5 loss in June at Citizens Bank Park.
It was the first time in three outings that the Diamondbacks lost a game that Gallen started against the Phillies.
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According to Baseball Savant, Philadelphia’s current lineup has 27 plate appearances against Gallen, and 14 of them came in the June meeting, when Gallen only lasted 1 2/3 innings. Overall, against Gallen, Philadelphia’s lineup is hitting .409 with a .567 xSLG and a 21.6 average launch angle.
If we turn to the Arizona’s lineup, it has just 11 plate appearances against Nola, hitting .182 with a .165 xSLG and a 4.8 average launch angle.
Nola is coming off a complete game performance where he scattered five hits in a 4-0 shutout over the Reds. As for Gallen, he hasn’t allowed a run in four straight starts while pitching at least six innings in each appearance and seven innings in three of them.
One thing to note for this game is that the total opened at seven, and some books are already moving the number up to 7.5. I think that line move positively correlates with Philadelphia, given that it’s the better offensive team, with an above-average wRC+ value of 104.
The Phillies’ ability to create runs aligns with my model, as I think this situational spot suits them. According to our Action Labs database, the Phillies are 6-1 as a favorite coming off a game in which they allowed 13 runs.
I was only going to lean to Philadelphia, but I’m starting to see the stars align here for the Phillies to pull off a victory.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks pick
Phillies ML -140
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