The Phillies should keep it rolling Thursday night in Miami
Against the struggling Marlins, the run line offers some value for Phillies bettors.
The Philadelphia Phillies made it five straight wins Wednesday night behind the bats of J.T. Realmuto and Bryce Harper, who powered the Phillies to a 6-1 win over the Miami Marlins.
Miami got four first-inning hits and jumped out to a 1-0 lead. But the Marlins managed just for hits the rest of the night, all singles, and put a runner in scoring position just once more over the next eight innings. It was Miami’s 14th loss in 17 games.
The Phillies go for the sweep Thursday night at loanDepot park, and there’s good reason to think they’ll do it.
Odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective of the time of writing. They are subject to change.
Marlins vs. Phillies MLB odds
Moneyline: MIA (+110) vs. PHI (-135)
Run line: MIA +1.5 (-155) vs. PHI -1.5 (+125)
Total: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Probable pitchers and analysis
MIA RHP Pablo Lopez (8-10, 4.04 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs. PHI RHP Noah Syndergaard (9-9, 4.09 ERA, 1.28 WHIP)
Those are pretty similar pitching lines, and it becomes even clearer when you look at their FIP: Lopez 3.77, Syndergaard 3.76.
So, let’s go off of what team is hitting the baseball better right now. That, unquestionably, is the Phillies. Save for a 10-run outburst Monday vs. Texas, the Marlins have not been scoring many runs. They have a combined 10 runs in their last five losses and have scored more than three runs just three times in their last 17 games.
The Phillies, meanwhile, have scored four or more in six of seven games.
Syndergaard had one of his best outings since joining the Phillies his last time out, surrendering three runs on eight hits in six innings. He struck out just two batters and didn’t walk any, and 60 of his 86 pitches went for strikes. Syndergaard is no longer a strikeout pitcher, but if he can consistently keep the ball on the ground, he’ll continue to be valuable to the Phillies as they try to hold onto a playoff spot down the stretch.
Lopez is coming off his worst outing. He lasted 3 2/3 innings Saturday vs. the Mets and was blasted for eight runs on 10 hits while walking three batters. Just 60% of his 78 pitches went for strikes. Lopez has not pitched more than six innings in his last eight starts, and four of those starts ended before completing five innings. The Marlins won just once during that stretch. The Phillies have won five of seven Syndergaard starts.
Philadelphia will likely be without Rhys Hoskins Thursday night after he was hit by a pitch on the right hand Wednesday night. It shouldn’t impact the outcome. Realmuto’s bat has been plenty. The Phillies nearly swept Miami last week in Philadelphia, but a bullpen meltdown kept that from happening. Don’t bet on history repeating itself. Take the run line and get yourself a little more bang for your buck.
Phillies -1.5 (+125)
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