Skip to content
Link copied to clipboard
Betting Commercial Content. 21+. Provided by Action Network, official betting partner of The Inquirer.

World Cup predictions, picks: Senegal vs. Ecuador

Ecuador only needs a draw to advance; Senegal needs to win

Ecuador's defender #07 Pervis Estupinan runs with the ball during the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group A football match between the Netherlands and Ecuador at the Khalifa International Stadium in Doha on November 25, 2022. (Photo by Jewel SAMAD / AFP) (Photo by JEWEL SAMAD/AFP via Getty Images)
Ecuador's defender #07 Pervis Estupinan runs with the ball during the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group A football match between the Netherlands and Ecuador at the Khalifa International Stadium in Doha on November 25, 2022. (Photo by Jewel SAMAD / AFP) (Photo by JEWEL SAMAD/AFP via Getty Images)Read moreJEWEL SAMAD / AFP via Getty Images
    by Michael Leboff, Action Network
    Published 

Quietly, Ecuador have been one of the most impressive teams at the World Cup. Priced as the third-best team in Group A behind the Netherlands and Senegal, La Tri have collected four points through their first two matches and now just need a draw against Senegal to advance to the Round of 16.

The fact that Ecuador is knocking on the door of the knockout stages isn’t a huge surprise -- especially since Sadio Mane is out for Senegal -- but their performances have certainly turned heads.

Can they keep it up against the Lions of Teranga on Tuesday morning?

  1. Maryland betting debuts — get your live offer from FanDuel

  2. Read about the Best Sports Betting Sites

Senegal vs. Ecuador prediction: Pick

  1. Over 2.5 goals (+156, FanDuel)

Senegal vs. Ecuador prediction: Analysis

While Ecuador needs to only avoid defeat to advance from the group stage, Senegal’s path is a little murkier. The Lions of Teranga clinch a spot in the knockout stages with a win, but there is a slight chance they get through with a draw, so long as Qatar shocks everybody and defeats the Netherlands by more than two goals. In other words, it’s almost certainly win or go home for Senegal.

Oftentimes in these tournaments, when teams get put into these situations -- where one team is thrilled with a draw and the other needs to win -- bettors default to thinking that the game will be a slog with one team sitting back and defending with their lives and the other trying to find a breakthrough.

It is definitely possible that this game does look like that -- Ecuador have proven to be a tough, physical defense, while Senegal don’t have the game-breaking talent to really open them up -- but there’s also a decent chance that this game flies off the handle.

» READ MORE: World Cup 2022 Golden Boot Odds: Richarlison, Mbappe favorites to claim award

One goal for either side, especially an early score, would throw this game off the rails. If Ecuador goes ahead, Senegal will need to score twice to keep their World Cup dream alive. If Senegal goes ahead, Ecuador will need to open things up and push forward for an equalizer, which would leave them vulnerable to a counterattack.

So while everybody else is counting on this game to be a rock fight, bettors can find value by backing the Over 2.5 at +156 and rooting for a goal to open things up and turn this into a track meet.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.