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World Cup predictions: Brazil takes on South Korea in the Round of 16

Can the Taeguk Warriors stop tournament-favorites Brazil on Monday?

Casemiro (L) of Brazil celebrates with teammate Vinicius Junior (R) after scoring Brazil's first goal during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Group G match between Brazil and Switzerland at Stadium 974 on November 28, 2022 in Doha, Qatar. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
Casemiro (L) of Brazil celebrates with teammate Vinicius Junior (R) after scoring Brazil's first goal during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Group G match between Brazil and Switzerland at Stadium 974 on November 28, 2022 in Doha, Qatar. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)Read moreRobert Cianflone / Getty Images
    by Michael Leboff, Action Network
    Published 

According to the odds, Brazil’s Round of 16 World Cup match with South Korea should be a pretty straightforward affair. Oddsmakers have installed Brazil as a -1300 favorite to advance past the Taeguk Warriors, and the Selecao sit at -370 to win in 90 minutes.

That said, South Korea have been a feisty, charismatic team that finds itself in the knockout stages thanks to a last-minute winner in an upset of Portugal. Will there be more magic conjured up on Monday afternoon?

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Brazil vs. South Korea prediction: Pick

  1. Brazil Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (+146, FanDuel)

Brazil vs. South Korea prediction: Analysis

Despite losing their final match of the group stage to Cameroon, the Brazilian National Team is still the betting favorite to win the World Cup, and for good reason. Not only is Brazil’s path very favorable — they’d play the winner of Croatia/Japan if they get by South Korea — but the Selecao were also very impressive in the group stage, even with the loss to Cameroon.

Brazil finished atop Group G with six points and a +2 goal difference, and while their three goals scored doesn’t seem befitting of a team atop the outright market, it can be chalked up to poor luck and less-than-stellar finishing more than anything else. According to their 5.9 expected goals created, Brazil should have doubled their total in the group stage.

» READ MORE: World Cup predictions, picks: Japan vs. Croatia

But what was most encouraging for the Selecao is that they were very solid defensively. Brazil allowed just 0.9 expected goals combined against Switzerland, Serbia and Cameroon.

That kind of defensive performance should bode well against a South Korean side that has scored four goals and created 4.1 expected goals against Uruguay, Ghana and Portugal.

There are a lot of reasons to be skeptical that South Korea will be able to stay in this match. The Taeguk Warriors were a high-event team through the group stage with eight total goals (4 GF, 4GA) and 7.8 expected goals (4.1 xGF, 3.5 xGA) in three matches — one of which was a 0-0 draw — and that brand of soccer is not how you want to play against Brazil.

Brazil should have no issue creating enough scoring chances to get put up three goals against a leaky defense, so a play on the Brazil Team Total Over 2.5 at +146 seems a wise bet on Monday afternoon.

The Bet: Brazil Over 2.5 Goals (+146, FanDuel)

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