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How to bet on Uruguay vs. Ghana in Group H finale

Check out our betting preview for Friday's match between Ghana and Uruguay.

Darwin Nunez of Uruguay looks on during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Group H match between Portugal and Uruguay at Lusail Stadium on November 28, 2022 in Lusail City, Qatar. (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)
Darwin Nunez of Uruguay looks on during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Group H match between Portugal and Uruguay at Lusail Stadium on November 28, 2022 in Lusail City, Qatar. (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)Read moreLaurence Griffiths / Getty Images
    by Michael Leboff, Action Network
    Published 

We’ve already seen one popular dark horse, Denmark, get eliminated in the World Cup group stage and another, Uruguay, could join them on the sidelines on Friday. La Celeste need to beat Ghana and hope for a South Korea loss or draw to Portugal to advance. If both Uruguay and Korea win, it will come down to tiebreakers.

Uruguay is -135 to defeat Ghana on Friday, but this is a big revenge spot for the Black Stars, who will look to get revenge for Luis Suarez’s handball incident that knocked Ghana out of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.

Will the Ghana pay back Suarez and Uruguay?

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Uruguay vs. Ghana prediction: Pick

  1. Uruguay Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (+300, FanDuel)

Uruguay vs. Ghana prediction: Analysis

It’s pretty clear how Uruguay will set up for this match. Not only do La Celeste need to win, but they’ll want to do it in style, because if South Korea beats Portugal it will come down to goal difference, and Uruguay is behind South Korea by one goal.

Uruguay is known as a well-organized, defensive side, but they’ll need to come out of their shell in this match and go for broke. And even though they are the only team in the competition yet to score a goal, Uruguay has the offensive firepower to post some crooked numbers. Fede Valverde, Darwin Nunez, Rodrigo Bentancur, Luis Suarez, Facundo Pellistri and Edison Cavani should give the Ghanaian defense plenty of issues.

» READ MORE: World Cup 2022 Golden Boot Odds: Messi, Mbappe favorites to claim award

While Uruguay will hope this turns into a wide-open affair, Ghana only needs a point to advance and will do what it can to keep this match quiet and turn it into a rock fight. Unfortunately, that doesn’t play into the strength of the Black Stars, as they’ve allowed five goals on 3.8 expected in two matches against Portugal and South Korea.

Ghana has been able to score five goals as well, but they’ve only created 2.6 xG, so some offensive regression would not be a surprise.

Conversely, some positive regression should be coming for Uruguay, who have been held scoreless despite creating 1.9 expected goals against South Korea and Portugal.

Although they’ve failed to impress so far in this tournament, this matchup and situation suit a bet on Uruguay to put up a big number against a leaky defense.

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