Best friends Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev meet in US Open quarters. Who is the better bet?

Andrey Rublev will be facing two opponents in the US Open quarterfinals on Wednesday. He’s a +225 underdog to Daniil Medvedev, but he’ll also need to conquer some serious demons. This is Rublev’s ninth trip to a grand slam quarterfinal in his career and the 25-year-old Russian is 0-8 in those matches, which includes an 0-for-3 mark in Flushing Meadows.

Adding to that intrigue is the fact that, to overcome his quarterfinal curse, Rublev will have to beat his best friend Medvedev, who recently named Rublev as the godfather to his daughter.

All of this should make Wednesday’s all-Russian quarterfinal a terrific watch.

Medvedev is the higher seed, has the 5-2 edge in the head-to-head matchup and is a more successful player on the Grand Slam level so it’s no surprise that he’s been installed as a -275 favorite to beat Rublev.

Medvedev, 27, stumbled out of the gates in his victory over World No. 13 Alex de Minaur in the Round of 16, but once the 2021 US Open champion found his footing, there was no stopping him. Medvedev’s ability to defend the baseline was on full display and his unorthodox shot-making threw de Minaur into a tailspin. When Medvedev’s on his game it’s hard to have any answers. He plays quick, he goes off-script and he puts a ton of power behind everything he throws at you.

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The win over de Minaur was an important performance for Medvedev as he had a pretty easy path to the fourth round before taking on the Aussie, who defeated Medvedev in the quarterfinals of the Canadian Masters last month.

Like Medvedev, Rublev had some questions to answer about his form coming into the US Open. The 25-year-old won a title on clay immediately after Wimbledon, but he would go into a bit of a tailspin during the North American hard court swing. Rublev lost three matches in a row, including going 0-2 on hard courts, immediately leading up to the Open.

That form had plenty of people picking against the Russian, but he was able to get through his first four matches, which included tough opponents like Gael Monfils and Jack Draper, without much fuss.

Rublev’s performance against Monfils was quite mature as the Parisian had the full-throated support of the crowd and there were a couple of moments where things could have gone sideways for the Russian if he lost his cool. But Rublev remained patient and waited for his opportunity to uncork his powerful forehand rather than forcing the issue. That blueprint will provide a decent path for Rublev against his buddy Medvedev, who is an incredibly gifted defender on the baseline.

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Rublev’s form makes him an intriguing option at this price. Had he suffered some ups and downs through the first four rounds, it would be a lot tougher to justify a play on the underdog here, but he seems to be in great form and handled two tricky opponents with relative ease.

Internal pressure is a real thing in a one-on-one sport like tennis, but I do think that the fact that Rublev is 0-8 in quarterfinals is offering value-hunters a chance to back him at a great price. If Rublev had won one or two of his previous eight quarterfinal matches, we’d be looking at much shorter odds on the underdog in this tilt.

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