Bet on St. John’s as home favorites against Villanova on Wednesday night

I was high on the Big East entering this year. I didn’t think any league had a stronger top half.

But conference play has been ugly for the class of the conference. UConn is rolling, but Creighton and Marquette have had lapses.

Regarding this matchup, Villanova has lost two straight, while St. John’s has lost its last three.

The last time Rick Pitino lost four straight games was 2004 when his Louisville Cardinals lost straight to Charlotte, TCU, Cincinnati, and DePaul, the latter two coming in overtime.

I don’t think history repeats itself on Wednesday, as the Johnnies hold a significant schematic advantage over ‘Nova.

(via FanDuel)

Kyle Neptune’s Wildcats are not a good zone offense.

Theoretically, their five-out attack should shoot right over zone coverages, but that hasn’t happened, as they’ve failed to crack .95 PPP against zone since the beginning of last year (ranking around the 40th percentile of D-I teams).

Pitino runs an aggressive morphing matchup zone among the nation’s best. The Wildcats scored only .85 PPP in their last meeting with the Red Storm, a 10-point home loss.

Even worse, the Wildcats struggled against the Johnnies’ press defense, scoring only .78 PPP on 40 possessions (over half the sets). Villanova didn’t have point guard Justin Moore, but the schematic issues remain.

And Moore’s presence doesn’t help Eric Dixon, who’s struggled in matchups with Red Storm big man Joel Soriano. In the aforementioned meeting, Soriano scored 20 points on 7-for-9 two-point shooting while holding Dixon to 14 points on 2-for-8. Soriano also grabbed eight boards to Dixon’s four.

Soriano’s struggled recently, but this is an excellent get-right spot with a good matchup.

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Regarding that matchup, Villanova is vulnerable on the boards, as the Wildcats rank below the D-I average in offensive rebounding PPP allowed (1.09, 48th percentile), and Soriano and Co. crash the boards at a high rate.

The Johnnies might get solid first shots, too. They’re a ball-screen-heavy attack behind guards Jordan Dingle and Daniss Jenkins, and the Wildcats’ pick-and-roll defense is merely average. The Johnnies generated almost 1.00 PPP on 25 sets in the first meeting, and I expect more of the same in this rematch.

Using these schematic advantages, the Johnnies stormed to a 10-point win on Villanova’s court. The Red Storm still have these advantages, but now they have home court and are looking to snap a three-game losing streak, so I’m betting they come out with their hair on fire in a winning effort.

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