All-Star Game betting: Under has hit in 13 of the last 16 meetings. Will the trend continue Tuesday in Seattle?
Major League Baseball's All-Star Game has turned into a showcase of pitching and defense.
Pitching wins championships. It also wins All-Star Games.
And in the era of the power pitcher, Major League Baseball All-Star Games are much less a show of offensive force and much more about showcasing how hard it is to hit a baseball these days — when everyone seems to throw 97 mph and pairs it with nasty off-speed pitch.
The National and American leagues have combined to score more than seven runs just once since the 2015 game, and a look at an over/under trend illustrates the low-scoring dominance even more: Since 2006, the “under” has an incredible run of 13-2 with one push.
The total for Tuesday’s All-Star Game in Seattle opened at 7½ runs, the lowest run total since 2018, and most sportsbooks were pricing the under around -120 Monday afternoon.
Will the unprecedented under run continue Tuesday night?
» READ MORE: MLB All-Star Game odds: AL is on a dominant run and is a slight favorite again Tuesday
A history of unders
Here’s a look at the over/under numbers for MLB All-Star Games dating back to 2006, courtesy of OddsShark:
Oddsmakers finally went under eight runs for the 2015 game. But the 2021 game saw the total climb all the way back to 10½. The teams combined for seven runs that night and then the AL claimed a 3-2 win in 2022.
Who’s pitching in the All-Star Game?
South Jersey’s Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks will start Tuesday night for the NL. He’ll be opposed by Gerrit Cole of the New York Yankees.
Both pitchers are among the favorites to win their respective league’s Cy Young award.
But neither ace should be expected to record more than three outs. An All-Star starter has not pitched more than one inning since Max Scherzer pitched two innings in 2018.
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Things get interesting with each pitching staff behind Gallen and Cole.
In the AL, Framber Valdez, Kevin Gausman, and Shane McClanahan — the only three pitchers along with Cole to have shorter than 10/1 odds at Caesars to win the Cy Young — will not participate.
In the NL, it’s a similar story. Spencer Strider, Clayton Kershaw, and Marcus Stroman, three of the top starters in the league, won’t pitch.
So, advantage to the batters?
There are plenty of strong bats in each lineup. MVP favorites Shohei Ohtani (who won’t pitch) and Ronald Acuña Jr. headline lineups that feature the likes of Mookie Betts, Randy Arozarena, Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager, and others.
But even without some of the game’s top pitchers, it’s hard not to like another low-scoring game Tuesday night. Bring out an All-Star caliber arm knowing he has to record only three outs and it’s easy to see pitching dominate again.
» READ MORE: Phillies prospect Mick Abel dominates on the mound, eats a grasshopper at MLB Futures Game
The T-Mobile Park factor
Forget about the players, the site has some impact, too.
T-Mobile Park in Seattle is at the bottom of Baseball Savant’s “park factor” metric for the second consecutive season. Fewer runs have been scored this season in Seattle than in any other ballpark. That has a bit to do with the Mariners’ pitching and fielding abilities, but it’s also indicative of a ballpark and a climate that has long been unfriendly to batters.
T-Mobile Park hasn’t been the most difficult place to hit home runs in, but it’s usually at or near the bottom in runs scored, extra-base hits and on-base percentage.
Of course, it’s an All-Star Game and anything can happen, but for trends like this, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” seems to apply.