Week 17 NFL betting picks: Take the Eagles against an again shorthanded Washington Football Team
Even on the road in the division, the Birds are a good bet at -4.5 against a WFT likely to be without running back Antonio Gibson.
Washington is wounded. Players on the Football Team are fighting with each other on the sideline. Their star running back just got placed in COVID protocol. They just got tagged for 50+ points by their archrivals and they’re also one of the worst teams at home against the spread.
There was a lot of understandable teeth-gnashing when the NFL pushed the first Eagles-Washington game to Dec. 21. It meant the Birds would have two games in five days after coming off a bye. But the jolt to the body clock hurt Washington more.
» READ MORE: Recapping the biggest sporting betting moments of 2021
They laid down to Dallas in Week 16, giving up six touchdowns in the first half alone and losing, 56-14.
The Eagles’ laying 4.5 seems like a layup, especially with Washington just 2-5 against the spread at home this season.
But consider this.
In the last five years, 16 teams (before Washington) gave up 50+ points in a loss. The last three won their game the next week — the Jets this year, Minnesota last season, Carolina in 2019. Three teams of the 16 got thumped again the following week, two ended the season with that 50-point game, but six others lost by one possession.
Arguably, the most painful indignity was last year when the Vikings were beaten by the Saints on Christmas Day, 52-33, as Alvin Kamara scored six touchdowns. Minnesota slipped to 6-9, but came back the following week and won at Detroit.
In other words, wounded teams can be dangerous.
Spread ‘em
Best against the spread on road: Dallas 7-1, Indianapolis 6-1, Cincinnati 5-2, New England 5-2, Eagles (and six others) 5-3.
Worst against the spread at home: Atlanta 1-6, Carolina 2-6, Jacksonville 2-6, Arizona 2-5, Chicago 2-5, New Orleans 2-5, Washington 2-5.
Source: VegasInsider.com
This week’s ref
The Eagles will see Clete Blakeman and his crew for the second time this season.
Blakeman has been a referee since 2010, and the Eagles have won eight of the 12 games he’s worked as the lead official, according to Pro-Football-Reference. They’ve lost the last three, however, including Week 7 in Las Vegas.
Blakeman was the referee in 2018 when the Eagles were beaten by Dallas. That game started with a controversial call, which went against the Birds. Cowboys returner Jourdan Lewis fumbled the return of the opening kickoff and, though the Eagles seemed to recover it, Blakeman ruled otherwise.
Dallas won the game in overtime when Amari Cooper caught a pass tipped by Eagles cornerback Rasul Douglas and walked into the end zone.
Blakeman worked Super Bowl 50 (Denver defeated Carolina) and was the official during the 2014 AFC Championship Game, which brought the tiresome term “Deflategate” into the lexicon when the Patriots were caught manipulating the air pressure of footballs.
The average number of points in the 14 games worked by Blakeman this year is 48.1, which is slightly above the Eagles-Washington over/under line of 46.5.
Next week’s line
DraftKings’ early line for next week’s regular-season finale at Lincoln Financial Field has Dallas -3.5 with an over/under 44.5. That’ll be interesting to watch since this week’s results could render that game meaningless to one or both teams.
NFL picks
Eagles (-4.5) at Washington (45), 1 p.m.: Hate laying 4.5 on the road in the division, but the Eagles’ running game is cooking and Washington coach Ron Rivera said he plans to play two quarterbacks. The pick: Eagles to cover.
» READ MORE: Eagles beat writers make their predictions for Week 17 against Washington
Kansas City (-5) at Cincinnati (49.5), 1 p.m.: This has the potential to be a track meet, but watch the forecast. As of midweek, 19-mph winds were in play for Sunday afternoon. The pick: Cincinnati outright. Also, BetMGM has a line of +130 on under 24.5 points for the Chiefs. Interesting.
L.A. Rams (-5.5) at Baltimore (46.5), 1 p.m.: The Ravens’ secondary was torched by the Bengals passing game (498 yards), which just happens to be the Rams’ strength. The pick: Rams by a TD.
Arizona (51.5) at Dallas (-5.5), 4:25 p.m.: The Cowboys have scored 43, 33 and 56 in their last three home games. They were averaging 35.5 points per game at home BEFORE putting 56 on Washington last week (38.4 ppg now). The pick: The Cardinals’ offense is headed in the other direction. Dallas by a couple of touchdowns.
Minnesota (42.5) at Green Bay (-13), 8:20 p.m.: The line practically doubled when Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins was ruled out with COVID. Sean Mannion, who will make his first start in two years, has as many TD passes in his career as me and you (zero). The pick: It’s also going to be brutally cold. Take the Packers, but do so quickly before it heads to 14 or more.
Last week: 6-1. Season: 15-3.
And finally ...
There was a wonderful clip going around from the game John Madden used the telestrator to break down Troy Aikman’s unsuccessful attempt at growing a beard. It’s hilarious. The thing with that 1995 game, some of us may recall, is that Dallas was a 17-point favorite and lost the game to visiting Washington, 24-17.
It was such an upset that afterward, Washington coach Norv Turner said, ”If there were 53 guys in this state who thought we would win they were all in our locker room. … And I’m not sure about all of them.”
No matter which John Madden you knew — the coach, the broadcaster, the video game pioneer — you likely are a bigger football fan because of him.
Just wish he was on television during the current gambling revolution. Listening to him openly root for a backdoor cover in a blowout game would have been such a joy.