Jeff McLane’s keys to Eagles vs. Commanders in Week 1 and a game prediction

The Eagles open the season against the Washington Commanders at 4:25 p.m. Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field. Here’s what you need to know about the matchup:

When the Eagles have the ball: The biggest uncertainty coming into this season will be how Sean Mannion does as a first-time offensive coordinator and play-caller and how the Eagles — specifically, quarterback Jalen Hurts — adapt to his new scheme. We saw many of the changes throughout camp and in the preseason: more of Hurts under center, more outside zone runs, more motion, and more play-action. Expect more of all of it in the regular season. But how far will Mannion go, and how much of a previous Eagles offense that had highs and notable lows last season, will be kept? The Eagles have understandably kept the answer to that question close to the vest, with the element of surprise one possible benefit heading into the opener.

What wouldn’t be a shocker is a run-heavy offense, especially against a Commanders defense that is still not that imposing up the middle. The Eagles’ offensive line is about as healthy as possible. Mannion will likely lean on them and running back Saquon Barkley, despite the new wide-zone blocking scheme. Washington’s defense should be better than last season. It would be hard to be worse. They hired a new coordinator in Daronte Jones and went faster and more athletic with six new starters. Jones has worked under several notable coaches, but he was last with Brian Flores in Minnesota and is expected to employ Flores’ base system. That would mean a 3-4 front, lots of pre-snap disguise, and frequent blitzing.

Daron Payne, who’s questionable with a knee injury, returns as Washington’s best interior lineman, but he’s never been a dominant force against the run and now the unit will be without veteran middle linebacker Bobby Wagner. First- round rookie Sonny Styles was drafted as his replacement, and could end up one of the better two-way linebackers in the game. But he’s young and an unknown. Frankie Luvu is a chess piece for Jones at the second level. And speedy edges Odafe Oweh and K’Lavon Chaisson were added in the offseason. But I don’t see a front seven that can match up with the Eagles’ O-line if Mannion plays it straight-up on the ground. Barkley has had some of his best outings against the Commanders. I’d stay with that formula.

Jones will likely want to be aggressive and not let the Eagles dictate the flow. If he can force Hurts and Co. to play behind the sticks then it could get interesting on offense, because the pass offense may not yet be where coach Nick Sirianni wants it. If there’s going to be a fair amount of play-action and Hurts turning his back to the defense — something he hasn’t done a lot of over his career — Jones could alter the picture post-snap by rotating his safeties. That was a Flores calling card, but it’s also worth noting that Hurts had one of the best throwing halves of his career against Flores and the Vikings last season.

There’s little doubt that Jones will create pressure when Hurts drops. I’d expect more simulated blitzes than extra rushers considering how the Eagles struggled against that tactic last season. Will the protection adjust and will Mannion give his quarterback better answers than he had last season? If so, Hurts could have opportunities to exploit a secondary that isn’t strong on paper. Washington’s best corner, Trey Amos, is on injured reserve. Former Eagle Rasul Douglas is his likely replacement. I’d expect a double move or two from receiver DeVonta Smith when he lines up opposite the 32-year-old cornerback.

When the Commanders have the ball: Washington’s other new coordinator is more of a mystery, because David Blough is so young. He’s an ex-quarterback only a few years removed from playing who’s been on the coaching express train. If that doesn’t sound similar enough to Mannion, he is also implementing a Kyle Shanahan-Sean McVay-type offense that will ask his quarterback to major in schemes he’s only minored in before. Jayden Daniels thrived in former coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s shotgun-heavy, run-pass-option system as a rookie. But he put himself in harm’s way too much in his second season and missed tons of time to injury. Can Daniels remain as effective in an under-center system, while maintaining his mobility as a threat?

That’ll depend on how much Blough plans to take from Ben Johnson, under whom he played with the Detroit Lions. The expectation is that he will certainly adopt the marrying of the run and pass through the outside zone, but it’s unlikely he’ll want to make Daniels completely uncomfortable. Blough probably spent some time watching Johnson and the Bears rip the Eagles’ run defense apart last season. Chicago used movement up front to get the front out of its gap assignments and take advantage of overpursuit linebackers and safeties at the second level. Vic Fangio will know as much, and should have a counterplan. Will he lean on his preferred light box count that has prevented borrowing a safety in run support? Or will he help Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, and Co. knowing that Daniels will still be a plus-one factor?

Commanders coach Dan Quinn has typically favored a run-based attack. He has a couple of solid running backs in Jacory Croskey-Merritt (early downs) and Rachaad White (passing downs). The Eagles have mostly done well against dual-threat quarterbacks, but the edges have to keep their integrity on their rushes and when they’re backside vs. zone-read run plays. Could linebacker Jihaad Campbell or others spy on Daniels?

Fangio doesn’t rotate his safeties post-snap as much as some other coordinators. But he can certainly mix that element in to confuse Daniels on play-actions. He has two trustworthy, veteran receivers in the returning Terry McLaurin and the arriving Stefon Diggs. The Eagles have one of the best cornerback trios in the league, but McLaurin got the best of Quinyon Mitchell two years ago, not so much last season. Cooper DeJean will have his hands full vs. Diggs when he lines up in the slot. Blough has a collection of versatile tight ends that could allow him heavy “12” personnel and further mask whether he’s calling run or pass. Safeties Andrew Mukuba and Marcus Epps are sure to be targeted on throws down the middle.

The Eagles should have a decided edge up front. The Commanders lost their best O-lineman (left tackle Laremy Tunsil) early in camp and are suspect at several spots. Replacement Brandon Coleman moved from left guard. Right tackle Josh Conerly is coming off an underwhelming rookie season. And new center Nick Allegretti missed most of camp with a calf injury. Right guard Sam Cosmi is good. But Carter has to be licking his chops. If the apparently healthy defensive tackle can push the pocket — or one of the other interior guys, if Carter is doubled — Daniels will likely struggle and Fangio won’t have to blitz much.

Extra point: Jonathan Greenard was declared out on Friday after being a limited participant in practice all week. The outside linebacker missed all of camp with a pectoral injury and wasn’t expected to be ready by the opener. He also has to learn a new scheme that asks him to drop more than ever. The season is a marathon and Jalyx Hunt and Nolan Smith Jr. are more than capable on the edges in his absence.

On offense, Mannion should be prepared for all scenarios, but Jones is probably going to stack the box to stop Barkley. It worked for most defenses last season, and until the Eagles show they can win consistently through the air, I don’t imagine opponents will drift from that approach. If Hurts has to drop more than expected, Mannion could go with a quick pass game to make Washington’s leaky secondary tackle in space.

The Eagles are surprisingly only 5½-point favorites, but Vegas usually plays it safe in Week 1. Sirianni-Hurts are 5-0 in openers, though, and have mostly had their way against the Quinn-led Commanders. Unless amateur magician Blough can pull off some tricks, I see the Eagles pulling away in the second half and covering the spread.

Prediction: Eagles, 27-20.

Listen to the latest episode

The regular season is almost here! All the preseason talk has been about Jalen Hurts and new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion. But there’s somebody else who will have a big say in how high the Eagles fly. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jeff McLane explains why this year, in the absence of traded star A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith has to take the next step, while also taking charge of the Eagles’ wide receivers group. Plus, Jeff dips into the mailbag for listener questions about Jalen Hurts and some key roster spots. Listen here.

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