Eagles vs. Commanders predictions: Our writers pick a winner for Week 1
Can the Eagles get off to a flying start in their first game under a new offensive regime?
A day more than eight months in the making is nearly here. After a myriad key offseason changes, the Eagles will take the field at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday (4:25, Fox) looking to prove they’re still the toast of the NFC East, and a viable Super Bowl contender. They’ll do so against a Washington Commanders team trying to turn the page on a bleak 5-12 season in 2025. Here’s how our writers see Sunday going:
Jeff Neiburg
The NFL schedulers threw Sean Mannion a bone. The Eagles have a difficult schedule overall — Sharp Football Analysis rates it the eighth-hardest schedule — but they open with games against the following team defense ranks from 2025: 32, 29, 21.
It should give Mannion and the new-look offense a chance to work out some kinks. Besides the joint practices in New England, the first-team offense hasn’t gotten any work as a unit against a real opponent, and the playbook we saw Andy Dalton, Tanner McKee, and Cole Payton work with during the preseason games is only one small part of what the Eagles have implemented.
» READ MORE: Is Sean Mannion ready for his big moment with the Eagles? He’s been preparing for it for years.
The curtain gets pulled back Sunday. We’ll see Jalen Hurts taking more snaps from under center, more receivers in motion, more play action, more middle-of-the-field throws.
The guess here is the offense will have some good and some bad over the first few weeks, but I expect the running game and the new-look wide zone scheme to have some success against a bad defense that hasn’t gotten much better.
Saquon Barkley was my pick to be the NFL’s offensive player of the year, and he should start his 2026 campaign with a lot of yards. The Eagles should run the ball with relative ease and then find high-percentage throws, especially off play action.
Defensively, the Eagles had an edge before Commanders left tackle Laremy Tunsil’s injury, and it’s even bigger now. They avoided playing Jayden Daniels in each of their matchups with the Commanders last year, but they shouldn’t have much trouble causing havoc Sunday.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 13
Ryan Novozinsky
The Mannion era is going to start with a bang.
Sure, the Commanders have a new, lauded defensive coordinator in Daronte Jones, but they didn’t exactly make any splashy moves on that side of the ball — which means they’re largely returning a unit that ranked No. 32 in total defense last season.
Their passing defense ranked fourth-worst in the league last year. Their run defense was even worse, ranking 30th. Mannion’s wide-zone scheme should feast against a unit like this — especially if the run game gets going early, which would set up a play action attack through the air.
» READ MORE: Prediction time: The Inquirer’s game-by-game Eagles picks, NFL playoff selections and major award winners
The Eagles have the backfield weapons to make that happen, too. Barkley looked like his 2024 self in Mannion’s offense this summer and even Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley had their moments. Couple that with the running threat of Hurts — who looked quicker in training camp, as defensive coordinator Vic Fangio pointed out in August — and you should get a relentless rushing attack.
Now this game isn’t a guaranteed win. The Eagles’ receiver room — sans DeVonta Smith — could prove to be too green or Daniels could take over and drag Washington to victory (like he did many times his rookie season).
But let’s face it: The biggest factor in this game is the Eagles’ defense — which is arguably their best unit in years. How can you count them out against a team like Washington, which will be without Tunsil.
Fangio’s unit will carry them to victory, but Mannion’s offense will show some flashes.
Prediction: Eagles 35, Commanders 10
Olivia Reiner
This could be a coming-out party for the new-look Eagles run game.
Mannion now helms the offense and is expected to bring a derivative of the Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay scheme rooted in the wide-zone blocking scheme. The wide-zone runs could help set up the play-action passing game, marrying together both phases of the offensive attack and thereby giving defenses a challenge as they try to anticipate what’s coming.
Still, the exact playbook remains a mystery, which the Eagles can weaponize to their advantage. Plus, the Commanders have been susceptible to giving up yardage on the ground.
Last season, the Eagles ranked No. 18 in the league in rushing yards. The offense still eclipsed 200 yards on the ground in Week 16 against the Commanders (only one of two occasions last season).
The Commanders have a new defensive coordinator in Jones, who was previously the defensive backs coach and pass game coordinator with the Minnesota Vikings. But Dan Quinn could still have his fingerprints on the defense given his defensive background. Plus, the Commanders didn’t make many dramatic defensive personnel improvements in the offseason that would give the run defense a significant boost.
The other matchup to watch is on the other side of the ball. The Commanders offensive line took a hit when Tunsil tore his triceps in training camp. He was one of the best left tackles in the league last season, allowing the seventh-lowest pressure rate (8%) among 35 offensive linemen with at least 250 pass-blocking snaps at that position, according to Next Gen Stats.
The Commanders could struggle to run the ball behind a shaky offensive line. The Eagles, meanwhile, could thrive. If so, the Eagles will maintain their win streak in Week 1 under Nick Sirianni.
Prediction: Eagles 29, Commanders 18
The regular season is almost here! All the preseason talk has been about Jalen Hurts and new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion. But there’s somebody else who will have a big say in how high the Eagles fly. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jeff McLane explains why this year, in the absence of traded star A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith has to take the next step, while also taking charge of the Eagles’ wide receivers group. Plus, Jeff dips into the mailbag for listener questions about Jalen Hurts and some key roster spots. Listen here.
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