Jeff McLane’s keys to Eagles vs. Bears in Week 3 and a game prediction
The Eagles still are in search of an identity, but the Bears are something of a mystery because of injuries at QB. What gives Monday night at Soldier Field?
The Eagles travel to face the Chicago Bears at 8:15 p.m. on Monday at Soldier Field. Here’s what you need to know about the matchup:
When the Eagles have the ball: Sean Mannion has another chance to get the ground game going against a run defense that ranks 20th in the NFL in expected points added per rush. It’s been a grind through the first two weeks. Landon Dickerson’s injury — or injuries — didn’t help matters in Week 1, and the shuffling of Cam Jurgens and Drew Kendall at left guard and center didn’t help in Week 2. But the play-calling hasn’t been great, either, with runs on obvious downs and condensed sets that have invited stacked boxes and made it difficult for blockers.
» READ MORE: Bears coach Ben Johnson is bold, brash, and would love to go bare-chested after beating the Eagles (again).
There likely would be a learning curve with the new wide-zone blocking scheme. Mannion has had to lean on some of the Eagles’ past staple runs — with mid-zone and duo blocking — to offset the struggles on outside zone runs. But one of the main reasons for hiring the offensive coordinator was to bring elements of the Shanahan scheme here — primarily the under-center, play-action game — and that’s yet to really happen. The Eagles rank 28th in under-center usage and play-action passes. It’s tough to commit to the latter when you’ve done virtually squat on first down (1.8 yards per rush). We’re still talking about a small sample of games. But would like to see progress from the unit helmed by run game coordinator Ryan Mahaffey and offensive line coach Chris Kuper in the coming weeks.
Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen employs a traditional 4-3 front. Veteran defensive tackle Grady Jarrett once was one of the better run-stuffers in the league, but he’s fallen off. Edge Montez Sweat is his best pass rusher. Jurgens and Kendall should have an easier task than they had last week against Jeffery Simmons. Still, Allen probably learned a thing or two from how Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores kept the Bears’ similar run offense in check last week. I would expect aggressive five-man fronts to force the Eagles into one-on-one blocking. Mannion may need to spread his formations to keep tight ends Johnny Mundt and EJ Jenkins from having to win at the point of attack. It hasn’t been pretty thus far.
» READ MORE: Saquon Barkley says he’s ‘good to go’ for Monday’s game in Chicago after suffering stinger in Week 2
All three of the Eagles’ running backs — Saquon Barkley (stinger), Tank Bigsby (abdomen) and Will Shipley (foot) — were on the injury list this week. But they’re cleared to play. If the blocking can get any of the three to the second level against linebackers Devin Bush and T.J. Edwards, I think there could be potential for a house call if Allen is going to sell out against the run. That aggressiveness extends to how he calls it vs. the pass. The Bears have the fourth-highest blitz rate in the NFL at 43.3%. They play Cover-1 (36.2%) at more than double the league rate (18%) and Cover-3 31% of the time. So there should be opportunities for quarterback Jalen Hurts and receivers DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks to exploit single-high safety coverages with the susceptible Tyrique Stevenson and Jaylon Johnson at outside cornerback. Stevenson has a hamstring injury. If he can’t go, the Bears may move rookie slot Malik Muhammad to the outside.
Allen has another rookie in the secondary — safety Dillon Thieneman — but Chicago’s first-round safety looks legit. He may be tasked with covering the recently acquired Zach Ertz in man situations. Thieneman was the Bears’ primary defender over tight ends in the first two games. Ertz is expected to suit up. What’s unknown is how much he’ll play and how effective he’ll be just nine months removed from major knee surgery. But if he’s close to the player he was before the injury, he could be a valuable option for Hurts over the middle on third down and in the red zone.
Earlier this year, the scenario seemed far-fetched, especially after the Eagles used a second-round draft pick on a tight end. Zach Ertz overcoming a serious injury to make a nostalgic return? It just didn’t feel like a possibility. Then rookie Eli Stowers got hurt in the preseason, and starter Dallas Goedert went down Week 2 vs. Tennessee. All of a sudden, the Eagles had a need. Now, the 35-year old Ertz has been tapped to fill it. The Inquirer's Jeff McLane explains how an unlikely reunion between Ertz and the Eagles came together, why both sides are hoping for more than a feel-good story, and which player on the roster could be affected by this move the most. Listen here.
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When the Bears have the ball: This is the more intriguing matchup, with two of the best play-callers on their respective sides of the ball facing off. Ben Johnson got the better of Vic Fangio last season, especially on the ground in Chicago’s win. The Bears rushed for 281 yards and made a good Eagles defense look like it couldn’t get off blocks or tackle in space. How did they do it, and why are they likely to present the same challenge again? Well, for one, they have two good running backs in D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. They also have an above-average offensive line led by road-grader right tackle Darnell Wright. But it’s Johnson’s scheme and play-calling that often is the star of the show. It’s a heavy under-center, play-action offense that runs the outside zone as much as any team.
Johnson doesn’t have to dress it up much because of the talent he has up front and the cutback lanes his blockers create. The Bears rushed to the tune of 291 yards in the shootout win over the Panthers in the opener, with Swift and Monangai each eclipsing 100 yards. But Minnesota held the running backs to just 3.5 yards per carry in Week 2 behind Flores’ ultra-aggressive defense. Fangio may be the polar opposite of Flores. He likes to win with the lightest boxes in the NFL. But he may have to situationally devote an extra body to force the Bears to the air.
Chicago likely is down to its third quarterback with starter Caleb Williams (hamstring, ruled out for Monday) and backup Tyson Bagent (concussion) dealing with injuries. Case Keenum is expected to be under center. The 38-year-old hasn’t had a start in nearly three seasons. Johnson likely will call a fair amount of quasi-run passes to help his quarterback, and especially if the Eagles keep the run game in check. But the Eagles have allowed 127 yards per game on the ground and are ranked 25th in expected points added per rush. They had nine missed run tackles vs. the Titans last week.
» READ MORE: From hangouts with former Eagles players to ‘The Bean,’ here’s a guide to Chicago for Birds fans
They had eight missed tackles last season vs. the Bears. That was the game that forced Jalen Carter to address his shoulders with minor surgery. He’s now playing with a wrist injury, and Fangio said he was surprised the defensive tackle played as well as he did last week, considering the soft cast he’s had to wear. The wrist and how it impacts Carter bears monitoring. The same could be said of the play of the Eagles’ safeties. Marcus Epps struggled in Tennessee. Howie Roseman signed slot cornerback Kenny Moore II to the practice squad on Tuesday, but Fangio doesn’t seem intent on moving any pieces. He did concede that Michael Carter II could play more safety.
Johnson likely will try to attack the middle of the field. His play designs attempt to stretch defenses to give his quarterbacks throwing lanes on intermediate routes. Receivers Rome Odunze and Luther Burden are young and promising. Veteran slot guy Kalif Raymond is small and shifty and could give Cooper DeJean fits. Tight ends Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet have only a combined three catches through two games, but both can be a handful. The Eagles’ pass rush has been underwhelming, considering the O-lines they’ve faced thus far. The Bears have a stronger unit, although center Garrett Bradbury has been a liability in pass protection. Left tackle Ozzy Trapilo could return after missing the first two games.
Extra point: The Eagles have yet to force a turnover. Fangio’s unit has been among the best in taking the ball away over the previous two seasons, so it may be just a coincidence. But it’s tough to win in the NFL if you’re net-negative in turnover differential. The Bears have three takeaways and giveaways apiece. It looks like weather conditions will be relatively benign, especially for Chicago. Kicker Jake Elliott has gotten off to a solid start this season and should have some confidence after connecting from 58 yards out in Nashville. Bears kicker Cairo Santos has a right hip injury. The Bears didn’t add an emergency replacement, but will Santos be 100%?
Shawn Hochuli is the head referee, which could be good news for the Eagles, who are 6-0 in games officiated by him in the last five seasons. Maybe that’ll have little impact on the outcome, but there seem to be several factors in the Birds’ favor entering this matchup. I don’t think we yet know the defining characteristics of this team. It had to scrape by opponents with low outside expectations. But we’ve seen this version of the Eagles before: stack imperfect wins early until finding an identity.
I probably would have picked the Bears if Williams was healthy. I wouldn’t underestimate Keenum with Johnson at the controls. But I can’t see Fangio getting fooled in the rematch. And I think that a confident Hurts is a dangerous Hurts, especially with the advantages the Eagles receivers have against the Chicago secondary. So I like the Eagles in a relative squeaker, maybe with Elliott kicking the game-winner.
Prediction: Eagles, 27-24.
