Jeff McLane’s keys to Eagles vs. Rams in Week 4 and a game prediction
Both the Eagles and Rams enter Week 4 with significant issues — and injuries. Who's in better position to overcome them?
The Eagles host the Los Angeles Rams at 1 p.m. Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field. Here’s what you need to know about the matchup:
When the Eagles have the ball: If success on the ground in the first half of the Chicago Bears game didn’t convince Sean Mannion to lean into the run game against the Rams, DeVonta Smith’s absence should only reinforce to him that his best chance of turning the offense around is to feed Saquon Barkley the ball early and often. Yeah, Mannion is going to need Jalen Hurts to check to passes if Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula stacks the box. But you’re cutting into your chances of winning if you’re consistently in third-and-long.
The Eagles need early down yards. They had some impressive gains on outside-zone runs in Chicago. Left tackle Jordan Mailata was a mauler. Run behind that! Center Drew Kendall and left guard Cam Jurgens were effectively combo blocking and getting to the second level to create lanes for Barkley, too.
The Rams have a solid run defense, even if they got scorched by the San Francisco 49ers and gave up 174 rushing yards in the opener. They allowed only 2.9 yards a carry in the next two games. Shula has a deep defensive line, but future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald was ruled out Friday and the team will also be without all-world end Myles Garrett for another week.
It’s an aggressive front that Mannion may be able to exploit with crack blocks and counters. If he can get Barkley to the second level against the likes of linebacker Nate Landman, who is dealing with a shoulder injury, there could be opportunities for explosive runs. The Rams kept Barkley in check last season (18 carries for 46 yards), but he rushed for over 200 yards in each of their meetings in 2024.
If the Eagles can have even a modicum of success on outside runs, they should be able to incorporate more play-action when Hurts is under center. Mannion and offensive line coach Chris Kuper just need to find a better way to counter blitzes up the “A” gaps in those scenarios. Some of that has to do with blocking assignments and blitz pickup, but we’ve yet to see much of Hurts on naked bootlegs. Get him out of the pocket for layup throws.
Hurts was great on third down in the first two games, but it was unsustainable and he was crushed under that weight in the second half of the Bears game. This will be the best pass rush the Eagles have yet to face, even without Donald and Garrett. Byron Young is explosive, and defensive tackles Braden Fiske and Kobie Turner can win at the point of attack.
Smith’s hamstring injury obviously needed to be dealt with now. The Eagles can’t afford for it to get worse and for their No. 1 receiver to miss more than two or three games. They’re hoping it’s just a little short-term pain. Dontayvion Wicks’ emergence as a true No. 2 should lessen the sting. He’s just not of Smith’s caliber. Rookie receiver Makai Lemon, tight end Zach Ertz, and others are going to have to help fill the void.
Shula likes to mix up his coverages to keep offenses guessing. Recently acquired cornerback Trent McDuffie will be difficult to throw at, but the Rams are banged up in the secondary. Cornerback Jaylen Watson (shoulder) is out and safety Kam Kinchens (hamstring) and backup slot corner Josh Wallace (shoulder) were also on the injury report this week.
When the Rams have the ball: Sean McVay is going to want to run the ball early. He’s going to want to stay balanced. And he’s going to want to marry the run with the pass off play action. Kyren Williams is his ace in the backfield, but Blake Corum is a solid No. 2 counterpart. They average 5.6 and 5.3 yards per rush, respectively. McVay still employs a lot of the wide-zone blocking that is central to the Shanahan run scheme. But he’s incorporated more power blocking into his runs in recent seasons. He’s also utilized three-tight end sets more than most play-callers. His run offense is actually more effective running out of “11” and “12” personnel, partly because he has good blocking receivers like Puka Nacua.
But a collection of versatile tight ends in Colby Parkinson, Tyler Higbee and Davis Allen allows McVay to exploit base defenses through the air despite being in “13” personnel. He will be down at least one tight end though, as Terrance Ferguson (ankle) has been ruled out and Parkinson (knee/shoulder) is also banged up. Will Vic Fangio take the bait and match personnel, which would allow him to keep Cooper DeJean at safety over Michael Carter II? Or will he roll the dice with either nickel safety covering one of the tight ends?
Fangio has plenty to clean up after the Bears mess. His defense struggled vs. pre-snap motion and route concepts that forced switch releases and stressed his match coverage. Cornerback Riq Woolen especially had trouble in that regard. The Eagles’ linebackers and safeties were also often sucked in by play action.
Improving communication is imperative. It will be tested with linebacker Zack Baun (concussion) out. Jeremiah Trotter Jr. will take Baun’s place alongside Jihaad Campbell. Fangio sold out to stop the run in Chicago and Bears coach Ben Johnson preyed on that emphasis. He should get back to his preferred light boxes and let interior linemen Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter earn their paychecks. Carter has been playing with a hairline fracture in his right wrist. Davis (calf) and Moro Ojomo (calf/elbow) also popped up on the injury list this week.
Even if the Eagles can bottle up Williams and Corum, they have quarterback Matthew Stafford and two of the better receivers in Davante Adams and Nacua to contend with. Nacua is expected to play despite a hip injury that kept him out of the last two games. He specializes in contested catches, yards after the catch, and giving defensive backs fits. Adams is still dangerous. He has 18 catches for 358 yards and two touchdowns so far this season. He can beat defenses in man or zone and is one of the best ever in the red zone. Stafford, a first-ballot Hall of Famer, according to Fangio, can make every pass from the pocket. He can throw from multiple arm angles and even toss in a no-looker when needed.
The Eagles have not tackled well. They missed 23 tackles total vs. the Tennessee Titans and Bears. Form matters, but it’s more a byproduct of players being out of position and the unit just not being as cohesive. Fangio still has top-tier corners in Quinyon Mitchell and DeJean. But with the outside corners playing sides this season, McVay could pick on Woolen by often motioning to the right side.
The 1-2 Rams aren’t perfect, of course. The offensive line is fine, but not impenetrable. Right guard Kevin Dotson is maybe the weakest pass blocking link. Stafford has shown that when pressured he can make mistakes. He’s not going to escape from many ambushes. If edge Jonathan Greenard can make more hay in his second game with the Eagles, it could be the key to unlocking a pass rush that has only three sacks.
Extra point: Nick Sirianni is 4-0 vs. McVay. It’s certainly a feather in his cap, although he declined to gloat when asked about the record on Friday. There were a lot factors in the four-game winning streak. It’s not just coach vs. coach. But Sirianni has done better in game management situations. McVay may be one of the best offensive play callers in the game, but he turtles up in fourth down situations. He coughed up a 26-7 lead a year ago by getting too conservative and the Eagles won on Davis’ blocked field goal return for a touchdown.
» READ MORE: unCovering the Birds: Communication Breakdown
The Rams’ special teams units were brutal last season. They may have kept McVay from getting back to another Super Bowl. Perhaps Sunday’s outcome can turn on a kick return here, or a missed field goal there, or a special teams mistake there. The Rams cut punt returner Xavier Smith on Friday. They have candidates to replace him, but no obvious names.
Either way, I think Sirianni’s Eagles may finally fall to McVay’s Rams. I wouldn’t make a prediction based on the law of averages. Many of the reasons stated above should be ultimately why the Birds fall to 2-2. Can they win? Of course. I just think they still have too many issues to sort out before they can beat a team as talented as the Rams.
Prediction: Rams, 31-21.
Just a few months ago, when Eagles training camp got underway, the defense drew rave reviews. The prevailing sentiment was that the unit was poised to dominate this year. So far through three games, Vic Fangio’s group has done anything but. From the lack of forced turnovers to missed coverage assignments, the Eagles have plenty of room for improvement. Can Fangio work his magic to get the defense on track in time for this week’s showdown with the high-powered LA Rams? The Inquirer’s Jeff McLane puts the defense under the microscope, and also answers listener questions in this week’s mailbag. Listen here.
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