5 things we’re watching on election day | Election Newsletter
After all the politicking, strategizing, and speculating, we’ll finally find out late Tuesday which candidates, campaigns, and messages succeeded — and which fell short.
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In just six days, we’ll get answers.
After all the politicking, strategizing, and speculating, we’ll finally find out late Tuesday which candidates, campaigns, and messages succeeded — and which fell short.
But it won’t be just about the winners and losers. The results will tell us a lot about where the Democratic and Republican Parties are heading after the upheaval of the Trump presidency.
That’s especially true in Pennsylvania, because neither the Senate nor gubernatorial races have incumbents — leaving voters in both parties to choose new faces.
So what could we glean from the results?
What a Trump endorsement is worth
We know former President Donald Trump still has significant influence over the GOP — almost all the party’s major candidates for governor and Senate have tried to cloak themselves in his red-hatted image.
But how much can he personally sway voters?
Trump endorsed celebrity surgeon Mehmet Oz in the competitive Senate primary, and rallied for him Friday in Greensburg, putting his weight into powering the man popularly known as “Dr. Oz” over the finish line.
But the race is still close, and Oz has already absorbed a lot of damage from GOP rival David McCormick.
The outcome will show if Trump can nullify those attacks and energize GOP voters.
And what about an anti-endorsement?
But Trump didn’t just pick who he wants to win — he also actively chose who he wants most to lose. (Trump has always been most effective politically in tearing people down.)
Trump put a MAGA smackdown last week on McCormick. And while he didn’t back anyone for governor, he dished out an anti-endorsement to Bill McSwain, calling the former U.S. attorney a “coward.”
The rejection hit even harder because both men openly sought Trump’s favor.
But both McCormick and McSwain have dominated spending in their respective races, and if they survive Trump’s wrath to win, it might suggest that the former president’s grip is weakening. Or maybe just that money really is that powerful.
Do Democrats flip the script?
In the biggest races in recent years, Democrats have usually gone for the conventional, establishment pick — think Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Katie McGinty in Pa.’s 2016 Senate race.
There’s a chance this year’s Senate primary changes that. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, whose public image is synonymous with the Rust Belt and hoodies, has few friends in the party establishment. But he’s widely expected to win the nomination — despite opposition from another Democrat who fits the usual, center-left Pa. approach in Congressman Conor Lamb.
If Fetterman wins and faces either Oz or McCormick, Democrats might get a chance this time to play the populist angle against an ultra-rich guy who has long run with the coastal elite. (Fetterman’s own Harvard pedigree usually gets lost beneath the tattoos and goatee.)
But if Lamb pulls off a shocker, it would signal the strength of the mainstream’s gravitational field.
Can grassroots beat cash?
Oz, McCormick, and McSwain have dominated TV with the help of either their own fortunes or super wealthy friends (must be nice!).
But none have been able to break away.
Instead, McSwain in most polls has trailed State Sen. Doug Mastriano and former Congressman Lou Barletta, who both have a lot less campaign cash but have each tapped into the MAGA attitude shaped by Trump.
It’s a similar story in the Senate race, where Kathy Barnette has made up for a dearth of money with a relentless schedule, and a similar ability to tap into the populist (and sometimes conspiracy-driven) vein running through the GOP.
If any of them win, it would be evidence that money can’t buy everything.
Who votes?
It’s conventional wisdom — and surveys support the idea — that voters are fatigued by politics in general, and that Democrats in particular are unmotivated this year. Does that play out at the polls? Or does the recent Supreme Court leak showing the justices are poised to strike down the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion ruling inspire progressive turnout?
And for all we’ve been writing about the candidates over the last few months, a lot of voters are just tuning in now. Who gets a bump just by virtue of where they live? And in races as crowded as the GOP primary for governor, how many votes does it take to win?
Overheard on the campaign trial:
“Everyone is coming to the realization we should have come to two months ago.”
—A source close to one of the Republican campaigns for governor, addressing Mastriano’s widely perceived vulnerabilities in a general election match-up against state Attorney General Josh Shapiro.
What else you should know
The GOP Hail Mary. With less than a week to go until the primary, Pennsylvania Republican insiders are making a last-ditch effort to rally behind a single candidate in the gubernatorial primary — and defeat Mastriano. We have a lot of questions about how this would even work. The rival candidates would have to figure out who would carry the mantle (sources say Barletta is the leading contender), trust one another to keep their words, and elevate the anointed one at the expense of themselves. And the campaigns would have to somehow communicate their move to voters — in less than a week, and with all of their names already printed on ballots.
Surging Kathy. When we caught up with Barnette at an event Monday night in Landsdale, she said she wasn’t surprised to see us. “The press is going to be following me now,” she told curious onlookers. Barnette hasn’t just gotten a bump in the polls and media attention, though. She got formal backing today from Club for Growth Action, a conservative PAC which booked a $2 million TV buy to boost her. The Susan B. Anthony List, an anti-abortion group, endorsed her yesterday and has canvassers on the ground. Multiple public polls — and the ones operatives in both parties are seeing in private — show that Barnette has effectively surged into a tie with the free-spending front-runners Oz and McCormick, leaving her in a strong position, and with momentum, less than a week out. The key questions are whether her shoestring budget (now aided by the Club) can carry her over the finish line, and if she can withstand the sudden scrutiny of some incendiary statements from her past.
Money Pit. McCormick and a super PAC supporting him have spent more than $35 million on his Senate campaign, while Oz and his allies have poured in more than $18 million combined. Each man has put in at least $11 million of his own money. Not only will one of them lose, there’s a chance one of them finishes third. Someone’s going to wake up on May 18 with serious questions about how all that cash was put to use.
Your exit poll
How did you decide to vote and why? We want to hear from you. Shoot us a note and we may feature you here once this is all wrapped.
What to watch for next
May 17 is primary election day. Polls are open 7 a.m to 8 p.m. Completed mail ballots must be received by county elections offices by 8 p.m. (postmarks don’t count).
May 18 is when the general election begins.
Happy voting. See you on the other side...