There’s one big reason to think that Andrew Painter’s transformation is for real
The rookie’s recent success has come in tandem with a fastball that is playing dramatically different from before his demotion.
A little past 6 o’clock on Saturday evening, Andrew Painter delivered a couple of pitches that could have some serious implications for the Phillies. Both of them were four-seam fastballs that registered 97 mph on the gun and crossed home plate at the sternum of Cardinals leadoff hitter JJ Wetherholt. The important thing is where those pitches ended up: inside the mitt of Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto, rather than in play, or in the seats. Wetherholt swung at both. He did not make contact with either.
That two-pitch sequence may sound like a small thing. It mostly was, at least within the context of the game. But it was a very big thing with regard to the futures of both the Phillies and their prized pitching prospect. It was a reason to believe.
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The top-line numbers suggest that Painter is a young man in the midst of a renaissance. Since returning from a six-week stint in the minors on July 31, the 23-year-old righty has posted a 3.62 ERA with 26 strikeouts, 10 walks, and two home runs allowed over 27⅓ innings. His most recent start was his finest yet: 103 pitches, seven innings, one run allowed, eight strikeouts, no walks.
That his season-long ERA is still 6.02 speaks to the extent of the struggles he endured during the first 14 starts of the season. It also warrants a skeptical eye. Yet the deeper you pore through the entrails of Painter’s recent performances, the more evidence you’ll find that suggests the rookie really is in the midst of a radical transformation.
It all starts with four-seam fastballs like the ones that prompted Wetherholt’s whiffs in the first inning on Saturday. By the end of the game, Cardinals hitters had failed to make contact on five of their 15 swings against Painter’s four-seamer. That may not sound like a lot, but consider this: In Painter’s last two starts before his demotion in June, he generated just three whiffs on 23 swings at his fastballs.
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The numbers are staggering. When the Phillies sent Painter down to the minors in June, his four-seam fastball ranked as one of the least effective in the sport. He wasn’t missing bats with it: His whiff percentage ranked 276th out of 278 pitchers who’d thrown at least 200 pitches. Opponents had 38 hits against the pitch in just 12 starts. Their .404 batting average against Painter’s four-seamer was higher than against any other pitcher’s. He ranked among the bottom 4% in slugging percentage (.763), strikeout percentage (7.65%), and wOBA (.481). Only one pitcher in the majors had a four-seamer rated lower than Painter’s per FanGraphs’ Pitch Value metric.
Now, suddenly, Painter’s four-seamer has become one of baseball’s most difficult to hit. Of the 84 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 four-seamers since July 31, only seven have a higher whiff percentage inside the strike zone than Painter’s. Opposing hitters are making contact with just 78% of his fastballs in the strike zone. That’s lower than even Brewers fireballer Jacob Misiorowski. It is a massive difference from Painter’s 93.2% zone contact percentage in his first 14 starts. Painter isn’t generating out-of-zone swings-and-misses on the level of the Miz, but his overall contact rate still ranks in the top 25% of pitchers since July 31.
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It’s a lot easier to believe in real change when there is a logical explanation for it. With Painter, the four-seamer is the thing. His spin rate is up by about 6%. In his last two starts, the induced vertical break on his fastball was better than in any previous start, with an increase of about 10% over his predemotion baseline. Against the Cardinals on Saturday, he threw nine pitches at 98-plus mph, two of them at 99-plus. Sixteen of his 33 sinkers and four-seamers clocked at 97-plus mph. Compare that to his last start before his demotion, when Painter didn’t touch 98 and only reached 97 on five pitches.
“There’s a presence out there,” Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly said. “He’s on the attack. He looks confident. Obviously, the stuff has to be good, or all that doesn’t matter if you’re not getting anybody out.”
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You saw it on Saturday. In the third inning, Jose Fermin struck out on a foul-tipped four-seamer. In the fifth, Jimmy Crooks swung and missed at a 1-2 four-seamer that registered 98.2 mph on Statcast. In the sixth, Alec Burleson swung and missed at another 98 mph four-seamer.
Painter still has plenty of work to do to reach the level of dominance many envisioned when he was rated as one of the top pitching prospects in the sport. But the improvement is very real. Make no mistake about that.
Tony Gwynn Jr. is a former major league outfielder and son of late Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn. Over the last two years, he got to know new Phillies second baseman Luis Arraez, whose contact skills at the plate often draw comparisons to Gwynn. Tony Jr. joined Phillies Extra to discuss his father, Arraez, and the bonds that connect them. Watch here.
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