A fifth straight postseason is in sight. Here are the big things to watch from the Phillies over the final month.

Not that anyone was counting, but the Phillies went 130 days between series against the Braves. If that doesn’t seem like a long time, consider the circumstances when they last met on April 26 in Atlanta:

It seemed improbable then — and unlikely even a month ago — that the National League East crown would hang in the balance when the rivals reunited over Labor Day weekend. Yet here are the Braves, toting a four-game lead into town after the Phillies went 21-7 in August, including a 15-3 roll since their Field of Dreams diversion.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper had his best month as a Phillie, and even he is not quite sure how he’s done it

“We’re all excited for the challenge,” Kyle Schwarber said.

It’s a taste of Red October one month early. But no matter what happens over the next two weekends against the Braves, the Phillies are in good position to play in the postseason for the fifth consecutive year, the second-longest active streak after the Dodgers.

With 22 games left, the Sons of Don Mattingly are on pace for 91 wins. A check of their playoff odds going into the weekend: 99.4% (Fangraphs); 99.5% (Baseball Reference); 99.8% (Baseball Prospectus). There’s no such thing as a lock, but based on predictive modeling, the Phillies are close.

In that case, September is more about gearing up for a run through the postseason than merely making it.

The competition is about to toughen. A team can play only against its schedule, but the Phillies played one game in August against a team that is holding a playoff spot. They’re 27-29 against clubs that are presently above .500. September is filled with those opponents, notably the Braves, Astros, Brewers, and Rays.

Here, then, are the biggest things to watch as the final month of the regular season unfolds.

Jhoan Duran threw seven pitches in the ninth inning last Saturday night in Anaheim, so he went back out for the 10th, the first time this season that he got more than three outs in a game.

He surely will be asked to do it in the playoffs.

But as a modern closer, Duran has gone more than one inning only seven times in the last three years, including the postseason. He won’t suddenly turn into 1980 Tug McGraw and rack up three-inning saves. And even if Mattingly pushes Duran for four, five, or even six outs, the Phillies will still need a bridge to get to him.

Consider: Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo may finish in the top-five in the Cy Young race and are averaging 18 outs per start. Zack Wheeler is averaging 17.5, excluding a rain-shortened start last month in Baltimore. The difference, then, between winning and losing a series may come down to getting outs 19 through 22 or 23 in each game and still holding a lead.

» READ MORE: Who do the Phillies trust in the bullpen? The bridge to Jhoan Duran is taking shape.

That’s been the case in the last three postseasons.

Last year, in Game 1 of the division series, the Phillies led 3-2 with two out in the seventh inning (20 outs into the game) when the Dodgers’ Teoscar Hernández took Matt Strahm deep. In 2024, Game 1 against the Mets, they led 1-0 in the eighth (21 outs into the game) when Jeff Hoffman and Strahm gave up a total of five runs.

And in 2023, of course, Orion Kerkering blew a 1-0 lead 18 outs into Game 3 of the NL Championship Series against the Diamondbacks, one night before Craig Kimbrel coughed up a 5-3 lead 22 outs into Game 4.

So, who gets those outs this year?

Jonathan Bowlan emerged as the main setup man after Brad Keller’s season-ending elbow surgery in July. Kerkering and lefty José Alvarado are experienced but inconsistent. Trade-deadline addition Brooks Raley has had success in his career against Dodgers lefty hitters Shohei Ohtani (1-for-7, three walks), Freddie Freeman (1-for-6), and Max Muncy (1-for-4, walk). Fellow lefty Tim Mayza hasn’t gotten many high-leverage chances lately.

Andrew Painter has a 3.12 ERA in seven starts since returning from triple A, and the Phillies won’t need five starters in the playoffs. But given his first-inning difficulties and lack of bullpen experience, it seems more likely that his postseason role would involve multiple-inning appearances or perhaps splitting a start with Aaron Nola, similar to Ranger Suárez in Game 4 at Dodger Stadium last year.

Then, there’s Alex McFarlane.

» READ MORE: Phillies rookie Alex McFarlane carries his hometown in the U.S. Virgin Islands with him

Drafted one round before Kerkering in 2022, the 100-mph-throwing 25-year-old has overcome Tommy John elbow surgery and moved to the bullpen. And in 10 major league appearances, he has already retired Ohtani and Muncy and struck out Byron Buxton, JJ Wetherholt, Randy Arozarena, Mike Trout, and Nolan Arenado.

“[He] doesn’t really pitch like a rookie,” Nola said.

McFarlane has allowed one earned run in 10⅓ innings, but also walked the leadoff batter in four appearances. If he’s able to kick that habit, he will be an increasingly intriguing leverage option for Mattingly.

Open auditions will continue through September.

Last week, after the worst start in his worst six-start stretch in seven seasons with the Phillies, even Wheeler conceded he was searching for answers.

And no theory was too conspiratorial.

“First, I’m going to check off the box of, hey, am I doing something to where other teams are seeing it, you know?” Wheeler said, thinking aloud that pitch-tipping may have been at the root of a four-homer, five-walk, eight-run thumping Aug. 24 in Seattle. “At this point, you’ve got to check off all the boxes.”

Two days later, after a biomechanical dive that went deeper than Jacques Cousteau, pitching coach Caleb Cotham said he believed Wheeler’s problems were “a sum of a couple of small things.” And in pitching, a small thing can go a long way.

» READ MORE: Phillies prospect Aidan Miller is ‘progressing very well’ and could be close to playing again

Specifically, the Phillies discovered that Wheeler, when he came set in his delivery in the Seattle start, held his glove 2 inches lower than usual, the continuation of an insidious trend. It messed with his mechanics, causing him to over-rotate and drift toward the third-base on-deck circle rather than going directly to the plate.

After making the fix, Wheeler was better last Sunday in Anaheim. He gave up a run in a 19-pitch first inning, then threw up zeros for the next five against the Angels.

But he remained measured in his satisfaction.

“I’m still not out of it,” said Wheeler, who has a 7.12 ERA in his last seven starts after posting a 2.16 mark through his first 16. “Certain things, usually it just clicks once I get out there, and right now I’m just having to grind a little bit, which is normal. But I expect a standard out of myself and just haven’t been there.”

Saturday night against the Braves will be another test.

The question arose again last week, as Trea Turner went through an 0-for-19 spell that represented the latest frustration in the worst season of his career.

How long will he remain in the No. 2 spot in the order?

“Where do you want me to put him?” Mattingly said, playfully. “And who do you want me to put there?”

Absent any solutions, Mattingly continued.

“I think we all know that Trea’s going to come out of this, and when he does, it’ll be hot,” Mattingly said. “We’ve seen it with Schwarb, we’ve seen it with [Bryce Harper], we’ve seen it with [Luis] Arraez. You’ve just got to hang in with guys over the course of the season.”

» READ MORE: Trea Turner has a pregame chat with Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki to ‘pick his brain’

It’s reasonable to wait for Turner to show up because he’s a .291 career hitter and a two-time batting champion. He’s also the only sensible righty-swinging choice to hit near the top of the order and split up Schwarber, Harper, and Arraez, all left-handed hitters.

But Turner remains susceptible to spin — sliders and curveballs, in particular — and sometimes looks like he’s trying to pull everything to left field. While most of the lineup cooked in August, he batted .215 with a .292 on-base percentage and .572 OPS.

Overall, Turner is hitting .239 with a .668 OPS and a career-high 21.8% strikeout rate.

Turner is a thinker, sometimes to his detriment. He met Ichiro Suzuki in Seattle last week and asked a series of questions about using the opposite field, not flying open in his swing, and how he corrected his mistakes. Then, Turner made an adjustment and was happier with his process.

“Me and [hitting coach] Kevin [Long] were talking a lot,” Turner said. “He said he liked the swing a lot, but you want to see the results. Just keep competing, keep working, try to get hot, and end the year strong.”

Imagine if he’s able to do that.

Mattingly has.

“If there’s a point where it’s like, OK, this has got to go, then you get there,” Mattingly said of dropping Turner in the order. “But right now, I mean, for me, it feels to guys like it’s panic when you start making changes like that.”

Watch the latest episode

With the minor league season winding down, Phillies farm director Luke Murton returns to Phillies Extra to discuss the state of the system and upcoming changes to his role. He also offers an encouraging update on injured top prospect Aidan Miller. Watch here.

You can also subscribe to the podcast version of Phillies Extra on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

Previous episodes: Mike Hazen | Tony Gwynn Jr. | Kevin Stocker | Bobby Dickerson | Jim Bowden | John Middleton | Ryan Howard | Dan Baker | Ricky Bottalico | Preston Mattingly