Are they better? Are their top two stars still elite? Nine questions for the Phillies as spring training opens

Their roster might look familiar, but there is plenty of uncertainty ahead for the Phillies, who open spring training on Wednesday.

From left, Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber lead a familiar Phillies core once again in 2026.Read moreJulia Duarte / Staff Illustration, Photos by The Inquirer, Courtesy of Getty

by Scott Lauber

Published Feb. 10, 2026, 5:00 a.m. ET

CLEARWATER, Fla. — Say this for the 2026 Phillies: They’re recognizable without a program.

Kyle Schwarber is back. So is J.T. Realmuto. And although team officials cite a new right fielder, a remade bullpen, and a commitment to two top prospects as a rebuttal to the claim that they are running back the roster, there was a week in January when they nearly put the darned thing in a blender.

If the Phillies signed Bo Bichette — and they agreed to offer what he asked for (seven years, $200 million, according to a major-league source) — it would have set off a chain reaction. They’d have moved on from Realmuto to a less-expensive catcher (they talked with Victor Caratini) and probably have traded Alec Bohm to open third base.

Instead, Bichette took a higher-salary, shorter-term offer from the New York Mets, and the Phillies turned back to Realmuto. Re-signing two foundational players — also, the best DH and catcher in free agency — was Plan A anyway. And keeping together the guts of a roster that won … checks standings … 96 games last season is sensible, even if fans are restless after back-to-back divisional-round knockouts.

That’s the backdrop as spring training begins. Let’s dive in with our annual Starting 9 — a lineup of Phillies questions for the next six weeks in Florida.

1. Are they better than last year?

Not even Rob Thomson can say yes.

“I think it’s to be determined,” the manager said recently on The Inquirer’s Phillies Extra podcast. “But I feel better about it.”

It’s a high bar. And the Phillies did lose mainstay starter Ranger Suárez and trade-deadline spark Harrison Bader in free agency. But Thomson’s optimism stems from a belief that rookies Andrew Painter and Justin Crawford can fill those spots. Having star closer Jhoan Duran for a full season helps, too. Adolis García is, at minimum, a defensive upgrade over Nick Castellanos in right field.

It’s reasonable to call for change, and the flirtation with Bichette signaled management’s interest in a different look. But different isn’t always good, and BetMGM set the Same Old Phillies’ over/under win total at 90.5, a reminder that they’re still very good.

Are they better? Not yet, but check back.

2. Is Bryce Harper still elite?

Perspective is important. Harper missed most of June with an inflamed right wrist, leaving his counting stats — homers (27), RBIs (75), doubles (32) — short of his career norms. But by OPS (.844), he ranked 22nd among 145 hitters who qualified for the batting title. Based on OPS-plus, he was 29% better than league average.

Elite? Maybe not. Still excellent? Quite.

Here’s what Harper wasn’t: patient. He swung at 35.6% of pitches out of the strike zone, well above his career average (29.3%). He wasn’t clutch, either. Only one of the Phillies’ biggest 43 hits by Win Probability Added belonged to MV3; he batted .233 with a .762 OPS with runners in scoring position.

The first thing seems fixable. Maybe it will help if Harper bats in front of Schwarber rather than behind him. The second? The Phillies are betting on it being aberrational, not the start of a decline at age 33.

3. Is Zack Wheeler still elite?

Under the circumstances, it’s a fair question.

To recap: In August, Wheeler developed a blood clot near his right shoulder and was diagnosed with a condition in which a vein is compressed between the collarbone and rib cage. He had surgery to remove the clot, then a second procedure in September to relieve the vein by removing the first rib.

Wheeler spent the offseason in Philadelphia, rehabbing under the supervision of team doctors and trainers. He got back on a mound last week. He will turn 36 in May. It’s unlikely he will be ready for opening day, Thomson said Monday, but the Phillies don’t expect him to be far behind.

“He’s wants to be an All-Star,” Thomson said. “He’s got a carrot out there that he’s after. We’re not going to push him because we want a healthy Zack Wheeler. We want him back to normal, and I believe he’s going to get there.”

Normal, for Wheeler, is among the best two or three pitchers in baseball, dominant and durable. It’s a long way back to that level. It’ll be fascinating to watch him try to get there.

4. Batting cleanup …?

This is where Bichette came in. Maybe not in the cleanup spot, per se. But the two-time American League hit king surely would have joined Trea Turner, Harper, and Schwarber — in some order — in the top half of the lineup.

So, now what?

“I’ve got some ideas,” Thomson said. “I’ve got to talk to the players about it, but you could see a change.”

The implication is that Schwarber and Harper will be flip-flopped in the Nos. 2 and 3 spots behind Turner as a way of getting Harper to see more strikes. But then who bats behind Schwarber?

Bohm may be the first choice. He batted .216 with a .571 OPS in 26 starts in the cleanup spot last year, but excelled there (.283, .769) in 2024. García is another option after batting cleanup in 71% of his starts for the Rangers since 2022. But Thomson believes García put too much pressure on himself last year in Texas and might prefer to ease him in.

Either way, the Phillies must get more production out of the cleanup spot. They ranked 20th last season with a .720 OPS.

5. Will anyone trade for Castellanos?

Think of Castellanos as a car on the side of the road. It’s running, with the keys in the ignition. The Phillies just haven’t gotten anyone to drive it away.

They have a few more days.

“We continue to talk to clubs about [a trade],” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Monday.

And if they don’t find a taker before Monday’s first full-squad workout?

“At this point, we’re doing everything we can to make a move by that time period,” Dombrowski said. “I’ll leave it at that right now.“

OK, so everyone knows that Castellanos’ relationship with the organization soured last season when he clashed with Thomson over playing time, including an incident in the dugout in Miami that led to a one-game benching.

In November, Dombrowski said “change of sceneries can be beneficial for people.” Nothing has changed. But before the Phillies release Castellanos and swallow his entire $20 million salary, they will exhaust all trade options. The San Diego Padres have a need after ranking 27th in the majors with a .630 OPS from the DH spot. The Colorado Rockies need a lot, including a DH (.613 OPS last season).

In any case, it would be a stunner if Castellanos walks into the clubhouse next week.

6. What’s reasonable to expect from Crawford and Painter?

Nobody expects them to carry the team.

Crawford turned 22 last month; Painter will be 23 in April. Besides, Harper & Friends (Turner, Schwarber, Realmuto, Wheeler, and Aaron Nola) are still near enough to their primes to do the heaviest lifting.

But if the organization is to transition from this core to the next without a rebuilding gap in between, Crawford, Painter, and eventually top prospect Aidan Miller must light the way.

The projection models are promising. Crawford is pegged to bat .286/.337/.390 with seven homers, 29 steals, a 103 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus; 100 is league average), and 2.0 wins above replacement, based on the ZiPS forecasting system. Steamer, another system used by FanGraphs, has Painter for a 4.69 ERA in 133 innings.

Those would be solid numbers for a rookie No. 9 hitter and debutant No. 5 starter, with room to grow.

7. When will it be Miller’s time?

Of all the reasons to be bullish on Miller — extra-base power, a high contact rate, and stolen-base aptitude — here’s one more: He’s a quick study.

To wit: After getting promoted to high-A Jersey Shore in 2024, Miller batted .169 and slugged .268 through his first 71 at-bats. He made adjustments and got on a .299/.526 roll over his final 154 at-bats.

Exhibit B: Last year, the Phillies challenged Miller by starting him at double-A Reading, where he was among the youngest players in the league. He batted .234 and slugged .355 through the All-Star break, then went on a .302/.550 kick before going 9-for-27 (.333) with a 1.032 OPS in a weeklong triple-A cameo to end the season.

It wouldn’t be surprising, then, if the Phillies punch the accelerator on Miller. He’s blocked at shortstop by Turner, but the plan is to get him reps at third base in spring training.

If Miller gets off to a blazing start in triple A and Bohm struggles again in April, well, it could get interesting.

8. Will the WBC be a disruption?

Eleven players — more than one-quarter of the 40-man roster — will leave camp at the end of the month to compete for their respective countries in the World Baseball Classic. It’s not ideal.

But the Phillies aren’t unique, either. The Boston Red Sox also will have 11 players leaving major league camp; the Seattle Mariners will have 10. The Mets, Milwaukee Brewers, and Chicago Cubs will have eight apiece.

“I played for Team Canada a couple of times, and to play for your country is quite an honor,” Thomson said. “You’re holding your breath when the guys go. But at the end of it, if they come out of it clean, I think it’s really good.”

Specifically, the Phillies will cross their fingers and toes for the health of five pitchers: Cristopher Sánchez (Dominican Republic), Nola (Italy), Taijuan Walker (Mexico), and relievers Brad Keller (U.S.) and José Alvarado (Venezuela). Harper and Schwarber will join Keller on Team USA. Edmundo Sosa (Panama), Johan Rojas (D.R.), and Garrett Stubbs and Max Lazar (Israel) are also competing.

9. Is there a sleeper to watch?

Don’t mistake passing on a handful of righty-hitting free-agent outfielders as an indication that the Phillies are still holding out hope for Brandon Marsh to hit left-handed pitching. Maybe he’ll turn into a latter-day Schwarber, but the Phillies aren’t under any illusions.

In that case, why not sign Rob Refsnyder, Lane Thomas, Austin Hays, Miguel Andújar, or at least so far, Randal Grichuk?

Two words: Otto Kemp.

Dombrowski and Thomson have talked up Kemp throughout the winter. Kemp slugged .558 with four homers in 57 plate appearances after getting called back up in September despite playing through shoulder and knee injuries that required offseason surgeries. He’s healthy now and will get the first shot at platooning with Marsh in left field.

But there’s another option. Maybe you remember Bryan De La Cruz from his years with the Miami Marlins. He bats from the right side and has 58 career homers, seven against the Phillies. The 29-year-old signed a minor-league deal in November, then batted .301 with eight homers and an .888 OPS en route to being named MVP of the Dominican Winter League.

Could he be the surprise of camp? There’s always one.