60 Phillies thoughts ahead of Super Bowl LX: Harper’s chip, Bichette the Met, Wheeler’s projection, and more

Once the Patriots and Seahawks are done, mitts will be poppin’ in Florida and Arizona. Here are LX things to chew on in anticipation of Phillies pitchers and catchers getting to work on Wednesday.

Bo Bichette (center) makes his first visit to South Philly as a Met during a series with Bryce Harper (left), Zack Wheeler and the Phillies June 18-21.Read moreYong Kim and Associated Press

by Scott Lauber

Published Feb. 6, 2026, 9:00 a.m. ET

Super Bowl LX will monopolize our attention Sunday as only the Big Game can. But once the buzzer sounds on Patriots-Seahawks, mitts will be poppin’ across Florida and Arizona.

With Phillies pitchers and catchers set for workouts beginning Wednesday in Clearwater, Fla., LX baseball notes:

I. Before the continuation of the “Is Bryce Harper still elite?” debate, another note from last season: Only one of the Phillies’ 43 biggest hits, based on Win Probability Added, belonged to Harper. He had four of their 13 biggest hits from 2019-24.

II. So, whatever you thought of Dave Dombrowski’s assessment that Harper “didn’t have an elite season like he has had in the past,” can we agree that 2025 was un-Bryce-like?

III. It’s probably giving Dombrowski too much credit to suggest he was being calculated. But the last time anyone publicly poked Harper, he homered twice in Game 3 of the 2023 division series and stared a hole through Braves shortstop “Attaboy” Orlando Arcia. A chip on Harper’s shoulder wouldn’t be the worst thing for the Phillies.

IV. Fact: Harper faced a lower rate of strikes (43%) than any hitter in baseball last season.

V. Another fact: Harper swung at 35.6% of pitches out of the strike zone, 129th among 144 qualified hitters and far above his career mark (29.3%), according to Statcast.

VI. It’s about Harper’s swing decisions, then, as much as lineup protection. “If he gets that [chase] number down to 32, just drop it 3%, now he’s swinging at better pitches, he’s going to do more damage,” hitting coach Kevin Long told The Inquirer’s Phillies Extra podcast. “The onus falls on me to make sure he’s swinging at the right pitches and him to make sure he’s not expanding. No matter what, he has to control his at-bats.”

VII. Still, don’t be surprised if Rob Thomson puts Kyle Schwarber behind Harper in the batting order. It was the other way around for most of last season.

VIII. A month before the Mets signed Bo Bichette — out from under the Phillies’ nose, by the way — they pushed hard for Schwarber, league sources said. The Phillies re-signed Schwarber to a five-year, $150 million contract, the biggest deal ever for a full-time designated hitter.

IX. Speaking of Bichette, set a calendar reminder for June 18-21, the Mets’ first visit to South Philly.

X. The Mets lost 18½ games in the NL East standings in 108 days, missed the playoffs, then overhauled the roster … and fans bemoaned not bringing back Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Edwin Díaz. The Phillies won another division title, had a bad week in October, then ran back the core of the roster … and fans bemoaned keeping the band together. Strange days.

XI. BetMGM set the Phillies’ over/under win total at 90.5. Same as the Mets’.

XII. July will be a big month for business at the corner of 11th & Pattison: Futures Game (July 12), Home Run Derby (July 13), All-Star Game (July 14), Mets (July 16-19), Dodgers (July 20-22), and Yankees (July 24-26).

XIII. Schwarber has 340 homers. If he hits 32 per year — and a work stoppage doesn’t wipe out part of the 2027 season — he would reach 500 homers before his new Phillies contract runs out in 2030.

XIV. Harper has 363 homers and would need to hit 23 per year to reach 500 before the expiration of his 13-year contract in 2031.

XV. Players who hit their 500th homer with the Phillies: Mike Schmidt, on April 18, 1987.

XVI. After being diagnosed with a blood clot in his upper right arm, Zack Wheeler had venous thoracic outlet decompression surgery in September. The recovery for a pitcher typically takes up to eight months, Thomson said, which would put Wheeler on a May timetable.

XVII. Bet on Wheeler to beat that projection. He began throwing from a mound this week, a source close to the 35-year-old righty said. The Phillies won’t push Wheeler, but he’s motivated to make as many starts as possible in what he has said will be his second-to-last season.

XVIII. Not every pitcher recovers at the same rate, but Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly had vTOS surgery in September 2020 and started Arizona’s second game of the 2021 season.

XIX. If Wheeler isn’t ready, top prospect Andrew Painter almost certainly will occupy a spot in the season-opening rotation. Painter, who turns 23 on April 10, could be the Phillies’ youngest starter since Ranger Suárez on Aug. 16, 2018 (22 years, 355 days).

XX. Justin Crawford turned 22 on Jan. 13. If he makes the team out of camp, as expected, he will be the youngest position player on a Phillies’ opening-day roster since Freddy Galvis in 2012 and the youngest outfielder since Greg Luzinski and Mike Anderson in 1973.

XXI. Crawford’s ground-ball rate in triple A last season (59.4%) would’ve easily led the majors, topping Christian Yelich’s 56.7% mark.

XXII. But Crawford also would’ve ranked fifth with 67 bolts, defined by Statcast as sprints of at least 30 feet per second. (Trea Turner led the majors with 117 bolts.)

XXIII. Is it really so bad, then, that Crawford tends to hit a lot of balls on the ground? “Hopefully it doesn’t matter,” Lehigh Valley hitting coach Adam Lind said. “His approach works right now. He’s super fast. His swing works to where he can hit the ball all over the yard. Whenever a defender has to take one step away from first base, that usually means he’ll be safe.”

XXIV. Quiz: Crawford could be the Phillies’ eighth different opening-day center fielder in nine years. Name the others. (Answer below.)

XXV. Upon stepping down as Twins president last week, Derek Falvey cited ownership’s “different plan” for the team’s direction. If Minnesota enters a full rebuild, All-Star center fielder Byron Buxton would be widely coveted, including by the Phillies. Buxton, 32, has three years and $45 million left on his contract, plus no-trade rights.

XVI. The Phillies’ projected luxury-tax payroll is $316.3 million, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, trailing the Dodgers ($402.5M), Mets ($376.6M), and Yankees ($335.5M). For a second consecutive year, the Phillies will pay a 110% tax on every dollar spent above $304 million, the highest of four thresholds.

XVII. In 2025, the Phillies paid $56,062,903 in luxury taxes on a $314,329,912 payroll, the Associated Press reported. Their tax bill has risen from $2,882,657 in 2022, $6,977,345 in 2023, and $14,351,954 in 2024.

XVIII. Owners will gather Wednesday in Palm Beach, Fla., for their quarterly meetings. Many owners are pushing for a salary cap in the next collective bargaining agreement. The players’ union has historically opposed a cap. It would take eight of 30 owners to block a salary-cap proposal. The existing CBA expires Dec. 1, with a lockout likely to follow.

XVIX. Last month, commissioner Rob Manfred told a New York radio station that MLB has discussed schedule changes, including an in-season tournament similar to the NBA Cup. The players would need to agree to any new formats.

XXX. The Phillies will send 11 players from their 40-man roster to the World Baseball Classic: Schwarber, Harper, and Brad Keller (U.S.); Cristopher Sánchez and Johan Rojas (Dominican Republic); José Alvarado (Venezuela); Taijuan Walker (Mexico); Aaron Nola (Italy); Garrett Stubbs and Max Lazar (Israel); Edmundo Sosa (Panama). Preliminary round games begin March 5, with the final set for March 17 in Miami.

XXXI. Jesús Luzardo was invited to pitch for Venezuela and Team USA but declined. “It’s very important for my family, for me, to represent Venezuela,” Luzardo told Phillies Extra. “But just in terms of intelligent decision-making, after a long last year and looking forward to a long this year, I thought the correct decision would be to take a slow spring training and make sure everything’s along the right line to be prepared for the year.” Luzardo is eligible for free agency after this season.

XXXII. Left-handed pitcher A: 3.59 ERA, 544 strikeouts, 1.287 WHIP, 117 ERA-plus in 588⅓ innings since 2022.

XXXIII. Left-handed pitcher B: 3.83 ERA, 602 strikeouts, 1.186 WHIP, 116 ERA-plus in 529⅓ innings since 2022.

XXXIV. Suárez (Lefty A) signed a five-year, $130 million contract with the Red Sox last month that will cover his ages 30-34 seasons.

XXXV. Luzardo (Lefty B) will pitch at age-28 this season.

XXXVI. Quiz answer: Brandon Marsh (2025), Rojas (2024), Marsh (2023), Matt Vierling (2022), Adam Haseley (2021), Roman Quinn (2020), Odúbel Herrera (2019), and Aaron Altherr (2018).

XXXVII. Sánchez threw the most changeups (1,084) in baseball last season. Among 72 pitchers who threw at least 300, he ranked ninth in opponents’ batting average (.170) and slugging (.243) against his changeup.

XXXVIII. Changeup artist Cole Hamels on why Sánchez’s is so dominant: “One thing I’ve noticed is you cannot recognize the spin. It’s the same [as the two-seamer]. So, it’s a coin flip: Am I going to try to hit 97 [mph] with sink, or am I going to hit 87 with drop-off-the-table [action]? And he’s not scared to throw it in any type of count, with anybody on.”

XXXIX. By finishing second in the Cy Young voting last year, Sánchez’s club options for 2029 and 2030 increased by $1 million apiece to $15 million and $16 million.

XL. The automated ball-strike system is coming to MLB after being tested last year in spring training and the minors. Each team is allowed two challenges per game. Thomson prefers that challenges be initiated by the catcher or batters, with specific hitters getting a green light to challenge.

XLI. Opinions about ABS are varied. “There’s a human element pitchers like with umpires,” reliever Tanner Banks said last month. “Maybe you steal [a strike] because the catcher does a great job. But at the end of the day, you want consistency. The umpires I’ve talked to are for it if it helps make the right call.”

XLII. Imagine if the Phillies could’ve challenged umpire Mark Wegner’s missed strike call on Sánchez’s 2-2 pitch to Alex Call with one out in the seventh inning of Game 4 of last year’s NL division series. Call walked on the next pitch and scored the tying run. Sánchez said Wegner admitted that he got it wrong.

XLIII. A catcher’s game-calling is among the last skills that are largely immeasurable through analytics, which explains why it took so long for the Phillies and J.T. Realmuto to reach an agreement in free agency. At 35, amid three years of declining offense, Realmuto’s value is tied to his intangible impact on the pitching staff.

XLIV. Since 2023, opponents had a .682 OPS and Phillies pitchers had a 3.75 ERA with Realmuto behind the plate. The major-league averages were .722 and 4.18.

XLV. “In my opinion, catchers are undervalued as far as contracts and dollars go,” said Realmuto, who eventually accepted a three-year, $45 million offer. “I truly believe it’s one of, if not the most important position on the field, and I just enjoy fighting for that.”

XLVI. Quiz: Realmuto started a career-high 132 games behind the plate last season. In the last 80 years, how many catchers started that many games at age 34 or older? (Answer below.)

XLVII. Player A: .260/.306/.426, 121 doubles, 82 homers, 100 OPS-plus in 2,477 plate appearances.

XLVIII. Player B: .237/.296/.441, 118 doubles, 110 homers, 107 OPS-plus in 2,473 plate appearances.

LIX. Nick Castellanos (Player A) in four seasons with the Phillies (ages 30-33).

L. Adolis García (Player B) in the last four seasons with the Rangers (ages 29-32).

LI. Castellanos ranked last among all outfielders in defensive runs saved (minus-41) since 2022; Garcia was tied for ninth (plus-23).

LII. Bryson Stott lowered his hands, moved them closer to his body, and batted .294 with an .855 OPS after the All-Star break last season. It’s one reason Phillies officials are confident in running back almost the same lineup.

LIII. Here’s another: Marsh batted .303 with an .836 OPS after May 1.

LIV. If depth is a factor, and it usually is, the open seats in the bullpen could go to Rule 5 pick Zach McCambley and Zach Pop, who is out of minor league options. But Thomson is talking up Kyle Backhus, a lefty with a low arm slot who was acquired in a trade with Arizona.

LV. Righty-hitting outfielder Bryan De La Cruz will be in camp as a nonroster invitee after signing a minor-league contract in November. De La Cruz, 29, has major-league experience, mostly with the Marlins. He was MVP of the Dominican Winter League, batting .301 with eight homers and an .888 OPS in 46 games.

LVI. Lefty reliever Génesis Cabrera also will be in camp as a nonroster invitee. Once a promising reliever with the Cardinals, Cabrera hit Harper in the face with a 97 mph fastball in 2021. The Phillies will be his sixth team since 2024.

LVII. It’s clear that Chase Utley will eventually get elected to the Hall of Fame after reaching 59.1%, 68 votes shy of the requisite three-quarter majority, in his third year on the ballot. But will it take one more voting cycle or two for him to get to the 75% mark?

LVIII. The electorate changes each year, depending on how many writers join the process upon reaching 10 years of membership in the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. But consider Carlos Beltrán’s path to election: 57.1% in 2024, 70.3% in 2025, and finally 84.2% this year. So, pencil in Utley for the Class of 2028 … and maybe book a hotel in Cooperstown for 2027 just in case.

LIX. Quiz answer: Six. Realmuto (2025), Yadier Molina (2017), Jason Kendall (2008), Tony Peña (1991), Elston Howard (1964), and Bob Boone (1982-86).

LX. Patriots 24, Seahawks 21. Enjoy the game.