The most imaginative changes the Phillies can make begin with moving Trea Turner off shortstop
A move to second with time to transition to the outfield would benefit Turner and the Phillies, who could then go shopping for a shortstop.
Dave Dombrowski put his arm around Bryce Harper and took a few steps down a hallway outside the clubhouse after a July 31 loss in Baltimore.
Three days later, the Phillies got creative.
Harper volunteered (again) to move back to right field, paving the way for Dombrowski to pivot from his annual trade talks involving platoon outfielders and pull off a deadline swap for a three-time batting champion.
It represented uncommon outside-the-box thinking from the front office. Instead of chucking money at a problem, or plugging a round hole with an ordinary round peg, Dombrowski uprooted three-quarters of the infield to add Luis Arraez to a lineup that’s been together so long it could’ve been carved on the Rosetta Stone.
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OK, so it didn’t go quite as well as the Phillies planned. After an initial sprinkle of contact-hitting spice, Arraez hit too many popups and not enough line drives, then sprained his ankle in the final week of the season and missed the wild-card series against the Braves.
But the trade should inspire Dombrowski to be only more inventive in the offseason given the intractability of an aging core that has backslid for four consecutive postseasons, $236.5 million in luxury tax commitments for 2027, and uncertainty over baseball’s financial rules after the looming work stoppage.
And the most imaginative changes that Dombrowski can make all begin with one thing: moving Trea Turner off shortstop.
It’s not like the Phillies can move Turner anywhere else. Not with seven years and $190.9 million left on his contract. And not after the worst season of his career.
Besides, it would be unwise to sell low on a three-time All-Star who, at age 33, is one year removed from a fifth-place MVP finish.
Dombrowski has not yet held his season-ending news conference, in which he typically sketches an offseason plan. The Phillies also don’t have a manager after Don Mattingly finished the season on an interim basis. Alex Cora, Dombrowski’s choice for the job, informed teams that he won’t manage in 2027.
Until that situation is resolved, Turner’s status won’t be.
But Arraez and Alec Bohm are headed to free agency; Harper is expected to return to first base. The Phillies were last in the majors with an 89 OPS+ (100 is league average). The offense is overly dependent on Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
Dombrowski’s solution can’t be to simply sign a righty-hitting free-agent right fielder (Randy Arozarena or Seiya Suzuki) and call it a day. Aside from being unimaginative, it may not be practical if the owners get their desired salary cap.
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If the Phillies move Turner to another position, it could put them in the market for four shortstops who were available at the trade deadline and may be again: Jeremy Peña (Astros), Zach Neto (Angels), CJ Abrams (Nationals), and Otto Lopez (Marlins).
Dombrowski said the Phillies “didn’t even discuss” a position change with Turner at the deadline. They didn’t have to. Harper set everything in motion for the Arraez trade by raising his hand to go back to the outfield.
But the owners expect to lock out the players upon the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement on Dec. 1, at which point team officials won’t be allowed to communicate with players.
It’s time, then, to have the conversation.
A short stop at second
Say this for Turner: He’s a thinker.
Intelligent and self-aware, he often buries his head in a tablet in the dugout to rewatch at-bats. He asks to see breakdowns of proliferating swing metrics and wants information about his defense.
Believe Turner, then, when he says he plans to get to the bottom of how a .291 career hitter with an .810 OPS and two batting titles can bottom out at .242 with a .675 OPS over 700 regular-season plate appearances — and go 1-for-11 in the wild-card series.
“I’ve got to just go over everything and just figure out as much as I can, find answers, see what I did bad,” he said. “This year was the biggest question mark for me offensively in a long time. I’ve got to figure that out.”
» READ MORE: From August: Trea Turner isn’t moving off shortstop (yet). The Phillies’ goal for now: Help him get better.
Sometimes, though, it’s too much.
“The more scientific he is, the more he locks himself up,” infield coach Bobby Dickerson said in July on The Inquirer’s Phillies Extra podcast. “He does think a lot, and he puts a lot of pressure on himself. He wants answers scientifically a lot of times, and he starts to search for that more than actually play the game, which is what he does well.”
But there’s reason to believe, based on Turner’s age and track record, that this year was an outlier for him at the plate.
Defense is another story.
Turner made 21 errors, tied for most in the majors, and was nine runs below average among shortstops in fielding run value, Statcast’s all-encompassing defense metric. It was a stark regression from last season, when he made eight errors and ranked 10 runs above average.
If anything, it seems like last year was the outlier. Since 2016, he’s 11 runs below average in fielding run value.
Turner has always been a “hit-first shortstop,” noted one team official, who suggested Turner’s problems at the plate affected him in the field.
Upon signing him to an 11-year, $300 million contract in December 2022, the Phillies expressed more confidence than other teams in his long-term ability to stay at shortstop.
“We’re betting on just elite athleticism and a desire to be really, really good for the entirety of his contract, the entirety of his career,” then-general manager Sam Fuld said at the time. “We see him as a shortstop for a long, long time.”
» READ MORE: Will Don Mattingly return? That’s ‘Dave’s decision,’ the first of many facing Dombrowski.
The Phillies were correct about Turner’s athleticism. It hasn’t diminished. His average sprint speed this season was 29.9 feet per second, 11th in the majors and only a tick slower than his rookie-year average from 10 years ago (30.0), according to Statcast.
If anything, Turner’s elite athleticism should serve him well in moving to a new position. He has experience at second base and in center field, though he hasn’t played the outfield since 2016 with the Nationals. At his age, left field might make more sense than center.
Regardless, after Dec. 1, the Phillies won’t be able to send coaches to work with Turner in the outfield. And depending on how long the lockout lasts, spring training could be shortened.
Turner also makes sense in left field only if he rebounds at the plate. Across the sport, left fielders slugged .401 with a .724 OPS this season. There was less production among shortstops (.390, .703), even less from second basemen (.381, .698).
The simplest move would be to second base, where Turner played well after getting traded to the Dodgers in 2021. In that scenario, Bryson Stott could play third base.
It would allow Turner more time to train in the outfield, similar to when Harper learned to play first base while coming back from elbow surgery as a designated hitter in 2023. It would also give top prospect Aidan Miller additional time in triple A after a low back condition sidelined him for most of this season.
And it would enable Dombrowski to shop for a shortstop.
Deal, or no deal?
Two winters ago, with Kyle Tucker entering his walk year and little chance of re-signing him, the Astros traded the veteran outfielder.
They’re in a similar situation now with Peña.
Under owner Jim Crane, the Astros have been to the playoffs in 10 of 12 years, including this season despite going 81-81, their worst mark since 2014. Crane fired general manager Dana Brown in August, leaving the organization in flux.
Peña’s future in Houston hangs in the balance. The 29-year-old batted .277 with 22 homers and an .802 OPS, solid numbers despite a strikeout rate that rose to 24%. Defensively, the 2022 World Series MVP was better than Turner but still below average (minus-5 fielding run value).
Crane resisted rebuilding over the last few years, so the new GM figures to have a mandate to contend in the AL West. Houston also could replace Peña or third baseman Isaac Paredes with Carlos Correa.
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The Astros flipped Tucker to the Cubs for two major leaguers (Paredes and pitcher Hayden Wesneski) and a top-100 prospect (Cam Smith). It’s likely they would seek a comparable return for Peña, who is projected to make $13.1 million next year, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
Neto, 25, has big right-handed power (23, 26, and 27 homers in the last three seasons) but high strikeout rates (30.5% this year after 26.9% last year). He also has three years of club control, with a projected 2027 salary of $9.8 million.
The Angels sold more actively at the deadline before owner Arte Moreno sold the team. But Neto stayed put, at least until this winter when they could conceivably cash in.
A package from the Phillies would probably have to start with Miller or top pitching prospect Gage Wood, maybe both. But Neto would represent the the middle-of-the-order righty thump that the Phillies lack.
Abrams, 26, was one of three players with at least 30 homes and 30 steals. He bats left-handed, which makes him less of a fit for the Phillies. There are also questions about his defense. He made 11 starts at second base in September after committing 20 errors at shortstop.
Lopez, 28, led the majors with 191 hits in addition to his elite defense (plus-12 fielding run value), just in time to be eligible for salary arbitration.
It’s unclear if the Nationals would move Abrams (two years of club control; $10.2 million projected salary next year) or the Marlins would trade Lopez (three years of control, $5.4 million) within the division. In both cases, it’s worth finding out.
But just as they couldn’t have traded for Arraez without Harper’s willingness to switch positions, the Phillies can’t consider an outside-the-box move without moving Turner, who may be best suited to play somewhere else anyway.
The Phillies haven't won a playoff series since 2023, and their postseasons keep getting shorter and shorter. How can they fix it? Radio play-by-play announcer Scott Franzke joins Phillies Extra, The Inquirer's baseball podcast, to discuss Trea Turner's future, the managerial uncertainty, whether the Phillies can get "creative" to change the mix of the roster, and more. Watch here.
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