It’s hard to believe in the Phillies, but here’s three reasons they can beat the Braves

The Phillies have won 88 or more games just 23 times in their 144-year history. And I can’t imagine any of those 23 seasons were more maddening than the last six months. Well, maybe that 1964 season was. But we don’t need to rehash that right now.

The Phils have given you enough reasons this month to doubt that they can win twice in Atlanta and keep this thing going. They still don’t have a cleanup hitter, the bullpen is thinner than the new-look Joel Embiid, they lost their second-to-last game of the season by 11 runs, and they’re carrying three catchers on their postseason roster. So it’s hard to be bullish on the Phils, who are countering Chris Sale with an opener in Game 1 on Tuesday (2 p.m., NBC).

» READ MORE: The Phillies are forced to get creative with their pitching vs. the Braves. Will it work again?

But before you check out, remember that this Braves team actually seems beatable. Their bullpen is even stronger with the return of Robert Suarez but they lost two starters this month to injuries. The Phillies know what Ronald Acuna Jr. did in September but Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley each had an OPS in September less than .640. And the Braves have not won a playoff series since they won it all in 2021. Two of their last three October exits were at the hands of the Phils.

So here’s three ways to talk yourself back into the Phillies before the start of the wild-card series.

They’ve been here before. Twice. The Phils weren’t able to line up their pitchers in the 2022 and 2023 NLDS after using Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola to get through the wild-card round. They arrived in Atlanta both years with questions about their pitching. The Phils used Ranger Suárez, who gave the Phils three-plus innings in back-to-back years and proved his mettle while becoming one of this era’s beloved players. The Phils are in a similar pinch on Tuesday as Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez are unavailable after pitching in the final series of the season. Jesús Luzardo will start Game 1 but interim manager Don Mattingly called him an “opener” as the Phils don’t know how long Luzardo can pitch three days after returning from the injured list. If the Phillies can steal another Game 1 in Atlanta, someone has to do their best Ranger. A combination of Luzardo and Andrew Painter seems like the plan for the bulk of the outs.

» READ MORE: Luis Arraez improving but not on Phillies’ wild-card roster; Otto Kemp takes his place

Chris Sale is dominant but the Phils should have a pitching advantage in Game 2 and 3. Tyler Mahle was excellent after being acquired at the trade deadline from San Francisco and allowed just one run this season in three starts against the Phils. But he did get roughed up by the Reds last week in his final start of the regular season and had a 5.13 ERA with the Giants before coming to Atlanta. He’s human and Sánchez is the better pitcher who the Phils hope can do enough to force a Game 3. If so, the Phils will have all hands on deck (even Wheeler) against Grant Holmes. The Braves placed Bryce Elder and Martin Perez on the injured list in September, depleting even more of their options after Sale and Mahle. If the Phils win one of the first two games, they’ll take their chances in an elimination game against Holmes.

Bryce Harper still has five years left on his contract after 2026 but the championship window of the Harper Era seems to be closing, especially with 2027’s labor uncertainty looming. “We’ve never finished the job. We’ve got to do that,” Harper said Sunday after the Phils clinched a postseason berth. Surely, he knows there’s only so many more chances left to get the job done. Harper was quiet last October against the Dodgers but this could be the week he returns to being The Showman, who seems to meet the moment better than most. After Sale, the Phillies will get their chances against right-handed starters in Game 2 and 3.

» READ MORE: After tragedy hit, Alex McFarlane lived with his former teachers in Georgia. Now he faces their favorite team

Harper talked Monday about how he loves to play in Atlanta as he has a .916 OPS at SunTrust Park and has homered 18 times there since it opened in 2017. The Phillies didn’t do much offensively in September, but Harper did have a good series in Atlanta while the Phils lost two of three. Oct. 1 isn’t until Thursday. So the Phils have some work to do to reach Red October. This is Harper’s chance to power them there.

If Kyle Schwarber is batting leadoff again. Two moves reeked of panic to me over the weekend when the walls were closing in: starting Nola on two-days’ rest and moving Trea Turner to leadoff. No Phils batter has hit first more in the last five years since Schwarber, who had been batting leadoff again this season since August. You want to change it up? Do it two weeks ago and not in the final weekend when everyone is talking about 1964. The offense has been at its best over the last five years when Schwarber is batting leadoff. There’s no reason to go away from that now.

The Phillies’ plan to navigate the late innings if they have a lead. How do they get the ball to Johan Duran? Jonathan Bowlan is back but hasn’t pitched since Sept. 17. Does Mattingly trust him like he did before the groin injury? Jose Alvarado was rocked on Saturday by the Rays. Can you ask him to get important outs? Alex McFarlane’s velocity dipped in the final week and the results were concerning on Sunday. Brooks Raley was acquired to be that guy, but he’s almost unusable. This series could ultimately be decided by the bullpen and the lack of options.

» READ MORE: Phillies playoffs: Schedule, tickets, opponent, and everything else you need to know

Luzardo will start on Tuesday, but Painter may be tasked with getting more outs as it doesn’t seem like the Phils are counting on Luzardo for too much length. Painter threw his four-seam fastball this season for 32.8% of his pitches and only one team has a worse slugging-percentage than the Braves this season against four-seamers. The Braves slugged .391 this season against four seamers and hit .235. Painter’s best start this season (two hits in seven shutout innings against Arizona earlier this month) came thanks to a dominant fastball. If his fastball is on Tuesday, the Braves’ lineup seems like his perfect match.

Watch the latest episode

Let's talk about the Phillies' bullpen. Larry Andersen happens to be an expert on the subject. The popular Phillies radio analyst had a 17-year major-league career in which he appeared in 699 games – all but one in relief. He joins Phillies Extra to break down the biggest question standing between the Phillies and a long run through October: How will they bridge the gap to closer Jhoan Duran? Watch here. 

You can also subscribe to the podcast version of Phillies Extra on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

Previous episodes: Matt Klentak | Jeff Francoeur | Luke Murton | Mike Hazen | Tony Gwynn Jr. | Kevin Stocker | Bobby Dickerson | Jim Bowden | John Middleton | Ryan Howard