Welcome to the home stretch | PA 2026 Newsletter

📅 There are 39 days until Election Day.

Welcome to the heart of election season.

Pennsylvania is — once again — at the center of the political universe, and our team is set to bring you the latest as we cover the final stretch of the campaigns from Philadelphia to Washington, D.C. and across Pennsylvania. We’re focusing on the competitive U.S. House races, the battle for the governor’s mansion, and legislative districts across the Keystone State as Democrats fight for control in Harrisburg and in Congress.

🎤 I’m Sam Janesch, The Inquirer’s national political reporter. I’ll be your host this week as we dig into how Pennsylvania’s always-newsworthy Democratic senator is inserting himself into a campaign season where he’s not even on the ballot. We also have a first look at an unusual new spending effort on behalf of U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who is fighting to keep his seat as the last Republican representing the region in Congress, and new insight into Gov. Josh Shapiro’s polling and money advantages.

In this edition:

🗳️ A Democrat in name only: For the first time, a plurality of likely Pennsylvania voters view U.S. Sen. John Fetterman negatively.

🗳️ Close to home: Fitzpatrick is the least loyal House Republican to President Donald Trump, but he’s still overwhelmingly aligned with the president and his party.

🗳️ Is this thing on?: Republican Stacy Garrity remains largely unknown in the state, even to a quarter of GOP voters, as Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro’s lead continues to grow.

— Sam Janesch, Michelle Baruchman, Fallon Roth, Gillian McGoldrick (pa2026@inquirer.com)

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📊 U.S. Sen. John Fetterman has come a long way from the Bernie Sanders-loving, progressive populist that made him a political sensation starting about a decade ago — at least according to the Pennsylvania voters who elevated him to national prominence.

Four years after his election to the U.S. Senate, a majority of the state’s likely voters think of him as a Republican, according to a new poll conducted by Siena University on behalf of The Inquirer and the New York Times.

Our polling data shows nearly three-quarters of Democrats think of Fetterman as a Republican. About half of Republicans feel the same way.

Even though Fetterman has said he will not change parties, that perception could have major implications. Democrats need to net at least four seats to capture the Senate majority starting in January. If they win a slim majority, Fetterman’s wildcard nature could be a roadblock as the party looks to act as a check on Trump in the final two years of his term.

Democrats in Washington aren’t sweating it. Well, at least not publicly.

“No,” U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, a New York Democrat and chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said quickly when The Inquirer asked her this week if she or her colleagues are concerned about Fetterman’s role in a narrow majority.

“I’m very grateful that Sen. Fetterman is serving in the U.S. Senate as a Democrat, and I think he will continue to do so,” Gillibrand said.

📺 Exclusive: A top environmental organization is throwing $250,000 toward new digital ads and a mail program supporting Fitzpatrick as he fends off a challenge from Democrat Bob Harvie in the swingy Bucks County-based congressional district that could prove key to flipping party control of the House this fall.

Fitzpatrick is the only House GOP candidate currently receiving ad support from the Environmental Defense Fund’s super PAC.

Historically Democratic-aligned groups, like environmental orgs and labor unions, have felt comfortable continuing — or offering new — support for Fitzpatrick despite a national political landscape that has become increasingly unfavorable for Republicans. The Bucks County lawmaker has been known to separate himself from his conference and is the least loyal House Republican to Trump and his party.

But, according to our recent analysis, he’s still on the president and the GOP’s side most of the time.

🔴 The Pennsylvania Republican Party’s state committee will meet in Pittsburgh this weekend. The committee cleared the field for Garrity as the party’s nominee by endorsing her last September. But since then, she’s struggled across the board — with fundraising, in polls, and more. Politics reporter Michelle Baruchman will be there, hoping to hear from attendees about the party’s outlook heading into November.

📩 Mail ballots have already begun hitting mailboxes across Pennsylvania, with nearly 14,000 already returned.

📬 A total of 999,280 mail or absentee ballots have been requested as of Thursday, Sept. 24, according to Pennsylvania Department of State data.

➡️ The breakdown:

Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s incumbent Democratic governor, is up 21 points over Garrity, according to a new poll conducted by The Inquirer, the New York Times, and Siena University. He also announced a $13.3 million haul this summer and $31 million spent — far outpacing Garrity’s $1.8 million total raised and $1.5 million spent since June.

As Levy says, Shapiro is highly favored to win in November, with Cook Political Report shifting the race to “Solid Democrat,” just two years after Trump won the state.

👋 All this election news, and can you believe we still have more than a month to go? You can follow The Inquirer politics team’s coverage here, and we’ll see you in your inbox next Friday.

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