Key Pennsylvania races to watch in the midterm elections this November

In the country’s premier battleground state, Pennsylvania Democrats believe they’re in striking distance of a tidal-wave victories that would dramatically shift the balance of power in both Washington and Harrisburg.

For the first time in decades, the party could take full control of the legislature. That would give Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro — seeking reelection with a wide polling gap on his Republican challenger Stacy Garrity — significantly more power to shape the direction of the state as he potentially pursues a White House bid in 2028.

Democrats also see a chance to flip four congressional seats and take control of the U.S. House. Republicans, meanwhile, are prioritizing defending the Pennsylvania seats with their House majority on the line as President Donald Trump, who won the state just two years ago, sinks in popularity.

The path for power in Washington in the high-stakes midterms runs through Pennsylvania and its results will be closely watched as both parties prepare for a presidential race in two years when the state promises to play a pivotal role.

Voters across Pennsylvania will head to the polls in November to cast their ballots for races that will decide the balance of power in the state and nation.

Here are the races to watch and how to vote.

Democratic Gov. Shapiro, widely viewed as a likely contender for the 2028 presidency, has big ambitions this fall when he’ll stand for reelection against Garrity, the state’s treasurer.

More than just securing his own reelection, Shapiro hopes to run up the margin high and carry downballot Democrats across the finish line.

Another double-digits win and a string of coattail victories would be a show of strength about his ability to perform in a key swing state that his party lost in the last presidential election. In a presidential primary, Shapiro could use that result to make an argument that he’s a strong general election candidate who can boost the Democratic brand.

Two months out from the election, all signs point to a Shapiro win. He holds a historically large campaign war chest and a commanding 55-39% lead in the race against Garrity, according to a recent Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena University poll.

Garrity, who has been endorsed by Trump, broke the record in 2024 for the most number of votes received by a candidate running for state-level office in Pennsylvania. But support from the national GOP establishment has been limited, and as she faces off against a formidable incumbent, the question is: Can she overcome her stark cash disadvantage and low name recognition to become the state’s first female governor?

There are four U.S. House districts in the eastern portion of Pennsylvania, targeted by both parties as must-wins. In each, the Republican incumbents are seeking to fend off highly financed challengers amid deep frustration among voters with the leader of their party that could translate into a wave of Democratic victories down ballot.

1st Congressional District: Five-term Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick faces a challenge from Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie in the district, which covers all of Bucks County and a portion of Montgomery. Fitzpatrick, a moderate who has survived previous blue waves, has maintained a fundraising advantage on Harvie unlike the other swing-district incumbents.

7th Congressional District: Freshman Republican U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie narrowly flipped the Lehigh Valley district two years ago and is widely seen as one of most vulnerable incumbents in Congress. He’s facing a challenge Democrat Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter and union leader whose blue-collar campaign has attracted support across the party’s ideological spectrum with endorsements from Shapiro and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders.

8th Congressional District: Freshman Republican U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan ousted a six-term incumbent in this district centered in former President Joe Biden’s hometown of Scranton two years ago. But as he faces a tough challenge from Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, Bresnahan has faced scrutiny over his stock trades and his vote to cut Medicaid — to pay for Trump’s tax cuts — despite a promise to protect the program.

10th Congressional District: Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, a close ally of Trump, faces a November rematch against Democrat Janelle Stelson, a former TV anchor, in the Harrisburg area district. Stelson has consistently outraised Perry after narrowly losing in 2024.

In addition to these four races both national parties have targeted, Shapiro has argued that the 9th Congressional District, where Democrat Rachel Wallace is taking on incumbent GOP U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser, is flippable — despite the strong GOP lean in the district, which stretches from Berks County to the New York state border. The district is home to two warehouses that ICE was planning to convert into detention centers before abandoning the plan after a backlash from residents.

In Harrisburg, Democrats hold an extremely narrow majority in the state House, but the Pennsylvania state Senate has been under Republican control for more than 30 years.

This year, Shapiro wants to flip the chamber and win a trifecta to push forward his key priorities, like codifying abortion access, raising the state’s minimum wage, and increasing funding for transit.

Republicans currently hold 27 of the chamber’s 50 seats. Democrats, who currently hold 23 seats, need to win at least two additional seats and the governor’s office to win control of the chamber with the lieutenant governor as a tie-breaking vote.

The seats, drawn advantageously for Republicans, have been stubbornly resistant to political change for decades.

But this year a blue wave could usher in Democratic pickups in Philadelphia suburbs and the Lehigh Valley.

Races to watch include:

Election Day is Nov. 3.

The deadline to register to vote is Oct. 19. You must be at least 18 years old, a resident of Pennsylvania and a citizen of the United States to vote. You can register online, by mail, at your county elections office, or at one of several other government buildings.

You can check your voter registration on the Department of State’s website.

Pennsylvanians can vote by mail with no excuse required. To apply, fill out an application by mail, online, or in-person and send it into your county election office. Applications must be received by Oct. 27 at 5 p.m. and the completed mail ballot must be received — not just postmarked — by 8 p.m. on Election Day.

An application and mail ballot can be completed in one visit at an election office, essentially functioning as early voting.

Staff writer Fallon Roth contributed reporting.