What we’re watching for in New Jersey’s primary elections

New Jersey voters will head to the polls Tuesday to vote in the state’s primary elections, though it’ll be a mostly sleepy affair in South Jersey.

With no state legislative seats on the ballot, voters will be casting votes on party nominees for November’s U.S. House races, as well as county and municipal offices. There’s also a Republican primary for U.S. Senate, with the winner landing the tall task of unseating incumbent Sen. Cory Booker (D., N.J.) in the fall.

New Jersey’s primary is a closed election, which means only Democrats can vote for Democrats and Republicans can vote for Republicans. Anyone not registered in New Jersey with either party (roughly 2.5 million of the state’s nearly 6.7 million registered voters) won’t be able to weigh in on any of the federal races. Though voters are allowed to switch their party affiliation at the polls Tuesday.

Here’s what we’ll be watching for in New Jersey Tuesday:

Incumbent Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R., N.J.) has been a political fixture in South Jersey for nearly 30 years, famously switching parties in 2019 to back Trump during his first impeachment.

Democrats hope one of the four candidates on Tuesday’s ballot can take down the unopposed incumbent and flip his red district blue.

Among the Democrats, Winder has raised the most money by far (heavily funded by his out-of-state parents) but has the fewest ties to the district. Civil rights attorney Tim Alexander has multiple endorsements but the least amount of money, and lost big to Van Drew in 2022. There’s also the issue of a false endorsement posted to Alexander’s website.

Keep your eyes on Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock, who has the backing of the Cape May Democrats and appears to be the candidate most likely to draw national support. But the Shore town is just one small dot in a sprawling district that spans across six counties from the Delaware River to the Atlantic Ocean, and Mullock only entered the race a few months ago.

Even in a strong year for Democrats, it won’t be easy to topple Van Drew, whose shift to the right seems on pace with the district itself. His relatively narrow reelection victory in 2020 (defeating Democratic nominee Amy Kennedy by about six points) was followed by double-digit wins in 2022 and 2024.

Trump won the district by 13 points in 2024, and it was just one of two districts across the state that Gov. Mikie Sherrill lost to Jack Ciattarelli in 2025. Cook Political Report currently rates the district “solid R” and notes “a huge wave would have to hit the Jersey Shore to put it in play.”

It’s no wonder Gloucester County Democrats, part of George Norcross’ political machine, didn’t endorse any candidates in the race. They’re taking a wait-and-see approach, just like the rest of us.

» READ MORE: Meet the South Jersey Democrats competing on Tuesday to face Trump loyalist Jeff Van Drew

While Democrats are lukewarm on defeating Van Drew, they’re licking their chops over their chances of flipping a congressional district farther north in one of the most-watched districts in the country.

Four Democrats are vying for the chance to face incumbent Rep. Thomas Kean Jr., a three-term Republican who hasn’t been seen publicly for nearly three months and said he’s suffering from “a personal medical issue.”

Kean’s office didn’t respond to a request for comment. He told New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein in a phone call last week he anticipates returning “in the next couple of weeks” and plans on discussing the health issues that have caused him to miss more than 100 votes.

“I understand the need for public transparency, and I appreciate the support of my constituents,” Kean Jr. said.

His absence is creating a lot of anxiety for Republicans inside the Beltway, who are looking to hold onto their slim majority in the House. The seat is expected to be one of most competitive in the country in November, with Cook Political Report rating it a pure “toss up.”

So which Democrat will have the best chance at defeating Kean Jr.?

Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot, appears to be the front-runner, according to a recent poll released by pollster Patrick Murray. Possibly the biggest indication of her status are new ads attacking her paid for by Real Change PAC, which is reportedly aligned with Republicans (they won’t disclose their donors until June 20, according to Politico).

Other Democrats vying for the seat Tuesday are Tina Shah, Michael Roth, and Brian Varela.

There are 12 Democrats vying to fill the House seat vacated by Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, the first Black woman to represent New Jersey in Congress, who is not seeking reelection after serving six terms.

Considering the winner of the primary will almost assuredly defeat the only Republican on the ballot, perennial candidate Gregg Mele (Coleman won reelection in 2024 by nearly 25 points), it’s been an all-out blitz to Tuesday’s election.

One of the front-runners appears to be Adam Hamawy, a plastic surgeon and Army veteran who was part of the team who saved the life of U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D., Ill.), who was nearly killed while serving in the Iraq War. An outspoken progressive, Hamawy has the backing of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (Ind., Vt.) and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D., Minn.), and appears to have benefited from an ad blitz from a pro-Palestine super PAC.

Sue Altman, U.S. Sen. Andy Kim’s former state director who was memorably tossed from a 2019 hearing featuring Norcross, also appears near the top of a recent poll released by Hamawy’s campaign. So does East Brunswick Mayor Brad Cohen and Assembly member Verlina Reynolds-Jackson (D., Trenton). And with 12 candidates, a winner could emerge while garnering less than 20% of the vote.