Next up for the United States? Belgium. We predict which one heads to the quarterfinals of the World Cup
Spring of 2025 was the last time the Belgians suffered a loss in international play. Still, not all of their results have been the prettiest, offering the U.S. a real chance to make noise.
The storylines behind this game are numerous, and on Sunday, the biggest got heaped on with the news that Folarin Balogun, America’s top striker, had his red-card suspension pardoned and is available for selection.
When the U.S. men’s national team kicks off against Belgium on Monday, the group will look to get into the quarterfinal rounds for the first time since 2002. Standing in the way is a reinvigorated Belgian side, coming off a come-from-behind win against Senegal in the round of 32.
But standing firm is the return of Balogun, whose red card suspension was overturned on Sunday, with FIFA deciding to lift his one-game match ban to much shock and awe.
Rumors continue to circulate about why FIFA lifted the ban, considering U.S. Soccer was unable to initially appeal it, but American fans will take the bonus of head coach Mauricio Pochettino having his full 26-man roster to choose from against a Belgian team entering undefeated in this World Cup.
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Still, their winning ways haven’t always been the most spectacular, which gives many the idea that the U.S. has a very good chance of knocking off the Belgians, particularly on home soil, in front of what’s said to be a raucous crowd in Seattle on Monday night (8 p.m., Fox29). It’s particularly why oddsmakers have the United States as a slight favorite, and why we gave this one some serious thought before offering our predictions.
Decisions have consequences, and not always the ones you want.
Yes, the U.S. now has its top striker available to play in the biggest game in team history. But FIFA’s shocking decision to suspend Folarin Balogun’s suspension will have also given Belgium all the motivation it needs to finally play up to its talent.
As Owen wrote, Belgium might be the most maddeningly inconsistent of all the major European national teams. The Red Devils are loaded with stars, as they showed off in routing the U.S. 5-2 in Atlanta in March; but they’re just as capable of the lifeless ties they played against Iran and Egypt in the group stage.
I thought the 5-1 rout of New Zealand in the group stage would wake them up, but then they were awful against Senegal until that late rally. Rudi Garcia might not be a great manager, but any coach should be able to fire up a team in a situation like this.
Until FIFA’s decision, much of the world was enjoying this U.S. team’s run. Now they’ll turn against the co-hosts, and not even the raucous crowd in Seattle will be able to stop that. Nor will it be able to stop Belgium from knocking the Americans out of another World Cup.
Prediction: Belgium 2, United States 1.
Having Florian Balogun back is a huge plus for the United States, but let’s keep focus on Belgium here for a bit. For all the people who suggest that this Belgium team might not be as good as advertised, it’s tough to deny that this team hasn’t lost in international play since the first leg of a UEFA Nations League match against Ukraine in March 2025.
Against Senegal, despite being down 2-0 for much of the match, the Belgians came in waves with midfielder Youri Tielemans being the catalyst behind relentless runs that culminated in two goals, one of which was the game-winner in overtime. When the U.S. hosted Belgium in a tune-up match before the World Cup, it was the Americans who got tuned up behind a 5-2 defeat.
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Is there a belief that the final scoreline will be that bad again? No way. But even with Balogun, given the results Belgium amassed, it’s hard to see the road continuing for the U.S. past Monday night.
Prediction: Belgium 3, United States 1.
The U.S. should like its chances against Belgium a lot better after FIFA put Folarin Balogun’s one-match red card suspension on hold Sunday afternoon, making the Americans’ top striker available for Monday’s round of 16 match.
Without Balogun, who leads the U.S. with three goals in the tournament, the situation against the Belgians looked dire. With him in the lineup, the States could challenge a Belgian side ranked No. 9 in the FIFA rankings.
Still, it will matter which version of an inconsistent Belgian team shows up on Monday. The Belgians looked lifeless through 85 minutes of their round of 32 match against Senegal before producing two goals in the game’s final five minutes to force extra time, where they found a winner from the penalty spot.
Romelu Lukaku, Thibaut Courtois, and Kevin De Bruyne know what it takes to beat the U.S. in the knockouts, having done so in the 2014 edition of the tournament. Belgium’s aging stars will be desperate to keep their final attempt at World Cup glory alive. Will they be able to do so against a confident U.S. team buoyed by the return of their star striker? It should be close.
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And for the first time in the history of the U.S. men at the World Cup, it might come down to penalties. If it gets there, I think the Belgians will have the advantage.
Prediction: Belgium 1, United States 1 (Belgium wins, 4-2, on penalties)
In this World Cup, underdogs are stealing the spotlight, the U.S. men are on a roll, and Philadelphia has not only welcomed the world but has given visitors a crash course on just how real the curse of the Rocky Statue can be.
Join Jonathan Tannenwald, the Inquirer's soccer writer, and host Lisa Carlin, analyst for CBS Sports Golazo, as they dissect the matches, the moments, and more as Philly has its moment in soccer's brightest spotlight. Watch our latest episode right here.
Watch previous episodes:
Episode 1: The Wait is Over!
Episode 2: Groups, Goals, and Glory
Episode 3: Electric Action in Philly
Episode 4: The Knockout Rounds Begin!
