The best and worst World Cup opponents for the USMNT, and the teams Philly should want to host

WASHINGTON — At some point between noon and 2 p.m. on Friday, the World Cup group draw will tell us which teams the United States will play in next year’s tournament. We’ll also get the first hints of which teams will come to Philadelphia, although the schedule won’t be set until Saturday.

Along the way, there will be jokes from Kevin Hart, singing from Andrea Bocelli, and appearances from Tom Brady, Wayne Gretzky, Shaquille O’Neal, and Aaron Judge. President Donald Trump also will be involved, having steered FIFA to move the event from Las Vegas to the Kennedy Center in D.C.

Not only was FIFA president Gianni Infantino happy to oblige his friend, but the global governing body added the Village People (of Trump favorite “Y.M.C.A.” fame) to the list of performers.

But somewhere amid all that, there will be sports, too. Tournament draws weren’t always as much of a spectacle, but they’ve always been a dramatic part of soccer’s tapestry.

Once the pots of seeds were set last month — four groups of 12 each, with the cohosts and the top nine teams in FIFA’s rankings in Pot 1 — the speculation began worldwide. How about England vs. Scotland, or the Republic of Ireland, Wales, or Northern Ireland if they get through Europe’s last qualifying playoffs?

How about a Spain-Morocco rematch of a 2022 World Cup epic? If Italy gets through the playoffs, which teams will it face in its first men’s World Cup in 12 years? And what powerhouses will underdogs like Haiti, with the Union’s Danley Jean Jacques, get to challenge?

» READ MORE: The Union’s Danley Jean Jacques celebrates helping Haiti reach its first men’s World Cup since 1974

Then, of course, there are matchups that resonate off the field. For all the efforts to keep sports and politics separate, soccer has always been the most political sport. So will the U.S. play Iran for a second straight men’s World Cup, and a third overall? There are sparks already, as Iran has boycotted the draw, since some of its delegates were refused visas.

As you wonder, here are three rules to consider. First, teams from the same continent can’t be drawn in the same group except for Europe, which has 16 berths in the first 48-team World Cup. There must be one European team in each group, and there can’t be more than two.

With that in mind, here are our picks for the easiest, hardest, most festive, and most politically controversial groups that the U.S. could end up in:

The easiest group: Austria, South Africa, Jordan. There are lower-ranked European teams in the playoffs than No. 24 Austria, but the case here is about the opponent you know vs. the opponent you don’t.

» READ MORE: FIFA’s World Cup draw is this week. Here’s what to know before, during, and after Friday’s event

Since Austria is in Pot 2, drawing that country would spare the U.S. from big hitters like Croatia, Colombia, Morocco, and Japan. From there, South Africa would give the U.S. a better tactical matchup than the rest of Pot 3, whose teams span Europe, Africa, South America, Asia, and Concacaf.

Having picked South Africa from Pot 3, all the African teams in Pot 4 are off the table. So we’ll go to Asia for Jordan, a World Cup debutant ranked No. 66. And we’ll wish Cape Verde, with former Union midfielder Jamiro Monteiro in a starring role, all the best.

The hardest group: Morocco, Norway, Italy if it qualifies. Morocco edges Croatia and Colombia from Pot 2 for talent — led by Paris Saint-Germain’s Achraf Hakimi — and a vibrant, gritty playing style.

In Pot 3, Norway has finally delivered Manchester City superstar striker Erling Haaland to his first World Cup, along with outstanding Arsenal playmaker Martin Ødegaard.

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In Pot 4, we turn to the European playoffs. Italy never needs much introduction, though it bears repeating that the Azzuri truly blew it in failing to reach the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. The current squad features goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma and midfield generals Nicolò Barella and Manuel Locatelli.

The most festive group: Colombia, Scotland, Republic of Ireland. A U.S.-Colombia game would be a headache for the American squad but would bring back epic memories of the 1994 upset at the Rose Bowl. The Cafeteros’ fan base is also as good as it gets in South America, especially with the country’s big immigrant population in this country.

Scotland and Ireland’s fan bases are massive, loud, and fun-loving. The Scots are in a men’s World Cup for the first time since 1998, and the Tartan Army will travel in huge numbers — buoyed by expats here and anyone who wants to feel the part for a day.

The same goes for Ireland if it gets through a tricky qualifying playoff with Czechia, North Macedonia, and favorite Denmark. But if the Irish make their first World Cup since 2002, the sea of green will flood the States. New Jersey’s Meadowlands still echo with the raucous noise of the 1994 Ireland-Italy game.

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The most political group: Iran, South Africa, Ukraine if it qualifies. A combustible mix of war, immigration, race, and religion that spans as widely as three continents.

As the city saw up close during the Club World Cup this summer, there’s no party in soccer like a South American party. Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia have the continent’s biggest fan bases in the U.S., and the first two would bring global superstars in Lionel Messi or Real Madrid’s Vinícius Júnior.

Philly fans got to know Brazil’s new phenom, 18-year-old Estêvão, when he scored for Palmeiras against Chelsea in the Club World Cup at Lincoln Financial Field — then joined the Blues a few weeks later.

It’s already set that the U.S. won’t play in the nation’s birthplace during the group stage, to the dismay of fans here and well beyond. But from the rest of Pot 1, France would bring the most star power from Europe, and the Netherlands' dancing masses would paint the town oranje.

» READ MORE: Estêvão scored one of the best goals Philly saw in the Club World Cup

Germany would also be very welcome in a city with proud and deep German roots.

In Pot 2, no player is more worth watching than Croatia’s Luka Modrić. Even at age 40, his passing skills are unparalleled as he heads into his last World Cup. Japan, South Korea, and Morocco have vibrant fan bases, and the latter two have big expat communities in this part of the U.S.

In Pot 3, Scotland easily is the team you’d want most — and that every hotel, bar, and restaurant would dream of. Egypt would bring another superstar in Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah.

Pot 4 is where the Union ties are. It would be special for Jean Jacques to play in his club hometown with Haiti or for Monteiro to come back to town with Cape Verde’s Blue Sharks.

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The biggest of all on that scale would be if Jamaica gets through the intercontinental qualifying playoffs to earn its first men’s World Cup trip since 1998, finally delivering Andre Blake to a stage he deserves. And the turnout from Jamaican fans would be epic, in a city they love coming to for the Penn Relays.

Among the European playoff contenders, the Republic of Ireland would be a huge deal here. But ever since the day three years ago when Philly was named as a host city, the first name on everyone’s lips has been Italy. Imagine how electric it would be if the Azzuri’s World Cup drought ends at the Linc.

You might have noticed one big team hasn’t been mentioned here yet: England. The Three Lions would bring a huge amount of fans, star players, and media attention to town. But to come to the city where America declared independence from them, 250 years later?

Ask around locally, and you’d find a fair number who’d say no thanks. They’d dreamed for years of a U.S.-England game on July 4, until the preset part of the draw path took the possibility away. It would feel strange if England uses the old colonial capital as the launchpad to fulfill the hype as one of the favorites to win it all.